Trades Buy/Sell

In 15 games last year, Kenyan Drake scored 10 (No. 10 among qualified running backs) total touchdowns and had 955 (No. 12) rushing yards. And the Cardinals brought James Conner in to fill that role. He’s going to get touches and goal line carries. He can easily outpace Drake’s production in those first three games, but even if he simply replicates it and manages to stay healthy, his trade value will double from his current ADP.

Raheem Mostert is the RB1 in San Francisco for now. But he’s on the last year of his deal, has trouble staying healthy, and Kyle Shanahan has a long history of turning unheralded running backs into fantasy gold. The 49ers spent two of their seven picks in this year’s draft on the running back position. With Jeff Wilson already injured, the path is illuminated for either Trey Sermon or Elijah Mitchell to get an opportunity right from the jump. And if they do, the schedule will be incredibly kind to them.

During his time under Adam Gase, Ryan Tannehill posted above average marks in Yards per Attempt, Completion Percentage, and Touchdown Percentage. In contrast, Sam Darnold has been greatly below the league average in each of these statistics while playing under Gase. Both of these players suffered from low passing volume. The real difference is that Tannehill was able to make the best of his opportunities while Darnold has wasted them.

Sam Darnold is being drafted as a fringe top 100 player in SuperFlex startups. Despite producing fantasy production comparable to a mediocre wide receiver, he is still being priced near much more effective quarterbacks, and that can be used to gain value. If there is another manager who believes that there is hope for Darnold to have his breakout season, now is the time to cash in.

Adam Thielen earned 108 (No. 27 among qualified wide receivers) Targets and a 24.4-percent (No. 16) Target Share, with 1,291 (No. 21) Air Yards and a 35.3-percent (No. 11) Air Yards Share. Not bad right? Well, he barely ranked inside the top-24 with 74 (No. 23) Receptions and 925 (No. 24) Receiving Yards. His 18.2-percent (No. 4) Touchdown Rate is likely unsustainable year-over-year, and gives us an opportunity to place him on the trade block.

The Panthers used Robby Anderson in more of a possession-type role, evidenced by his 7.9 (No. 62) Yards Per Target and 9.6 (No. 64) Average Target Distance marks. Due to the lack of touchdowns, he only finished with a 13.8 (No. 30) Fantasy Points per Game despite hauling in 95 (No. 8) Receptions for 1,088 (No. 13) Receiving Yards. Regardless, his dynasty stock increased from 2019 to 2020 given his career-best season across the board.

At this point in his career, Leonard Fournette will likely share backfield opportunities. With 132 (No. 32 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities and averages of 4.5 (No. 48) Yards Per Touch, and 0.98 (No. 46) Yards Created Per Touch, it indicates he isn’t overly explosive and productive with shared touches. The +5.9 (No. 24) Production Premium gives us a slight glimmer of hope, but he remains a dynasty sell-high after riding the “Playoff Lenny” hype.

After returning from a concussion in Week 12, David Montgomery averaged over 23 touches and 137 total yards per game with eight total touchdowns and 25.7 Fantasy Points per Game. From Weeks 12-17, he finished inside the top-8 each week among fantasy running backs. That’s the perfect definition for dynasty sell-high candidates – finished the season as an RB1, but realistically more of a mid or back-end RB2.

In two postseason contests, Cam Akers averaged an impressive 22.1 Fantasy Points per Game. He caught all three of his targets for an explosive 51 receiving yards and finished with two rushing touchdowns. But the main takeaway to file in our minds heading into the offseason is that he had become the workhorse in the backfield by season’s end. Across the final four regular season games and both playoff matchups, Akers totaled 132 carries, 561 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns.

Depending on where Leonard Fournette lands, keep in mind that he’ll turn 26 years old heading into the 2021 season. Although he finished 2020 with a +5.9 (No. 24 among qualified running backs) Production Premium, he only totaled 130 (No. 47) Yards Created and a 15.8-percent (No. 53) Juke Rate. We’re riding high on the Playoff Lenny postseason hype, but he’s more of a sell high in dynasty leagues.

A torn Achilles tendon and Jonathan Taylor’s emergence have stifled Marlon Mack’s fantasy future. Mack’s fantasy potential has become an afterthought with Taylor ascending to excellence. There is plenty of unknown surrounding a player set to hit free agency who will return from a serious lower-body injury, but he checks the boxes a dynasty asset should have.

Mack is still only about to enter his age-25 season. Being injured in Week 1, he will have a calendar year to recover and get back to his 4.50 (77th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-yard Dash form. His 103.9 (75th-percentile) Speed Score and 122.9 (72nd-percentile) Burst Score were just indicators for his big play ability. Taking a chance on running backs coming off lower-body injuries is risky, but his talent makes it worth the risk in dynasty.

Last week, with Rudolph sidelined, Irv Smith set new season-highs with an 88.9-percent Snap Share and 35 routes run. The Snap Share was also the second-highest mark of his two-year career. The former second-round selection out of Alabama is beginning to become a weekly fringe-TE1 option and this development shouldn’t be the least bit surprising.

On the year, Chris Godwin does not have a single game with 100 receiving yards or even 100 Air Yards. With the additions of Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown to this team, Godwin has simply not been able to draw targets in the face of steeper competition for looks. He is one of the hardest players to sit this week, but the numbers simply don’t add up to him being a good fantasy play.

Will Fuller led the league in Production Premium in his 11 games played. He was also top-5 in Expected Points Added and Fantasy Points per Target, more evidence of this stellar pairing with Deshaun Watson. Pretty good numbers for a player often pigeon-holed as a pure deep threat in the DeAndre Hopkins era. Fuller’s reinvention into an all-purpose player in 2020 certainly boosted his dynasty market value.

Couple Jameis Winston’s resume of fantasy success with comments this week from Sean Payton that he is “going to have the opportunity to start the minute Drew Brees leaves,” and you’ve got an intriguing buy-low opportunity a-brewing. For the cost of acquiring Winston, and with how long established QBs stick around in this league, he’s worth a speculative offer at the very least.

Jalen Hurts earned his first start in Week 14 and looked like an instant QB1. He is in the upper echelon of all-time athleticism among quarterbacks. In his first start, he rushed 18 times for 106 yards. His rush attempts were the fifth-most for a quarterback since 2000 and his yardage total is top-15 in a single game. He’s the ultimate Konami Code passer and his two matchups to close out the fantasy season are supreme.

Devin Duvernay posted an above-average 32.5-percent (59th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating to go along with his 4.39 (95th-percentile) 40-yard Dash time and 121.9 (53rd-percentile) Burst Score. For teams dealing with injuries in the fantasy semifinals, Duvernay is among the best pickups of the week and is worth a desperation start.

With a higher Average Target Distance mark than his teammates, Michael Gallup is often deployed as the deep threat in the Dallas offense, logging 198 (No. 19 among qualified wide receivers) Unrealized Air Yards through 12 weeks. That deep threat role is a valuable one, but it’s not being capitalized on with sub-par QB play post-Prescott. Gallup’s 4.1 (No. 105) Target Quality Rating is far below Amari Cooper’s 5.4 (No. 60) and CeeDee Lamb’s 5.6 (No. 53) marks, more evidence that he’s doing a lot with a little.

It’s never good for a top-3 dynasty RB to lose a year due to an ACL tear. The silver lining is that Saquon Barkley’s injury happened in Week 2, giving him more than enough time to make a full recovery ahead of the 2021 season. Even better for our purposes, he and his explosive plays have been out of the public perception for a very long time. This presents a choice buying opportunity in fantasy football dynasty leagues.