Fantasy Football

At 6-4, 223-pounds, Michael Pittman has the prototypical size that the Indianapolis Colts lack in their receiver core. Combined with his 111.2 (93rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Speed Score and 10.24 (89th-percentile) Catch Radius, he is a red zone threat for Philip Rivers to target. Kevin King is Pittman’s primary coverage this week and he plays his first game since Week 4 due to a quad injury. King struggled before his injury, hence his low spot on the cornerback rankings.

The Patriots-Texans game has an O/U set at 49 points, and only three games on the slate have a higher projected total. On top of that, the Texans are a Vegas underdog playing at home in a dome. While Brandin Cooks has out-targeted Will Fuller in each of the last three games, it doesn’t matter. Expected to play from behind in a dome against weaker primary coverage means that Fuller is a wide receiver to start in a high-scoring game.

Michael Pittman broke out in Week 10 with 101 yards on seven receptions. His college profile indicates that he will keep breaking out all over the place and suggests he can be the focal point of the Colts passing attack. He posted an above-average College Dominator Rating and is a supreme athlete. His 112.1 SPARQ-x score is in the 73rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers. If there is a second-round pick to be buying on in Indianapolis, it’s Pittman.

Jerick McKinnon is outside the top-30 RBs in Juke Rate, Yards per Touch, True Yards per Carry, and most other important metrics. The 49ers have also shown a general reluctance to get him the ball frequently. When practice squad player Jeff Wilson was on the roster with McKinnon, Kyle Shanahan chose to split the work between them. With Raheem Mostert supposedly on track to return next week, McKinnon will likely continue to be efficient, but on less volume.

Salvon Ahmed’s 21 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown in Week 10 cannot be ignored in the new look NFL that is devoid of workhorse backs. Ahmed is slotted in as the direct replacement for Myles Gaskin in Miami and is an ideal RB2 to help you with your playoff push, especially with Jordan Howard now out of the picture. Don’t overthink it.

David Moore is the next man up in Seattle’s high-octane offense after Tyler Lockett was declared questionable with a knee sprain. If Lockett is out, get excited for Moore, who has flashed big play potential for years when tethered to Russell Wilson.

Heading into the 2020 season with Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor on the roster, Nyheim Hines had become the third wheel in the Colts backfield. Fast forward nine weeks and Hines has 28 receptions and 220 receiving yards (both good for No. 8 among qualified running backs) on a 32.5-percent (No. 63) Snap Share. His fantasy output on a week-to-week basis has been up and down, but Hines has produced boom weeks resulting in Top 5 running back performances.

Jonathan Taylor’s dynasty ranking has fallen and is teetering on the edge of the top 10. Since returning from bye, the much-hyped prospect has seen his Snap Share fall from 35.6-percent in Week 8 to 30.8-percent in Week 9. Taylor fumbled his way to a season-low six carries in Week 9. Sure it doesn’t look good right now given the high expectations, but it would be foolish to panic sell in dynasty at this point.

The only reason Mike Williams doesn’t have more WR1 weeks is fluky touchdown production from Los Angeles role players. Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, and Williams make up 61.9-percent of the LA targets, but only 47.1-percent of the touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Chargers have five players with touchdown rates over 15-percent, only one of whom even has double-digit targets. As long as Justin Herbert keeps throwing dimes, Williams will have more spike weeks in the near future. 

Jamison Crowder entered Week 9 with a 31.5-percent (No. 2 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share, but his competition for targets was nonexistent. With Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims back in action, Crowder now has more than just practice squad players alongside him at receiver, and his Target Share will take a massive hit in future contests. Still playing on the Jets, a diminished Target Share may be the end of WR1 and WR2 Crowder as we know him.

Two of the league’s most exciting prospects faced off on Sunday for a 34-31 thriller, where Tua Tagovailoa pulled out the win over Kyler Murray. Tagovailoa also chipped in 35 yards on the ground, a little taste of the Konami Code upside he brings to the table. Justin Herbert has been putting crazy point totals on the board, and while the Miami defense has been strong, Tua should be a sneaky GPP option in a favorable game environment against the Chargers.

The San Francisco receiving group is in flux, especially with George Kittle and his massive target volume out of the picture for the rest of the season. Kyle Shanahan has the common sense to play his better players, but will he pull the trigger? Richie James is the stone minimum on DraftKings against New Orleans in Week 10.

Duke Johnson is the latest example of why we should be stashing backup running backs this late in the season, especially those who project to be bell cows in the event of an injury to the starter. The fantasy community has waited years for him to have the opportunity he’s been presented for Week 10. With David Johnson yet to be cleared from his Week 9 concussion, Duke is looking at an every-down role in a narrative-soaked revenge game against his former team. You know what to do.

Since returning from a knee injury that cost him Week 6, Curtis Samuel has scored in three straight games and logged two 20-plus-point performances. He’s finally happening. He has seen his recent floor bolstered by carries and rushing touchdowns, and now Christian McCaffrey is in danger of missing this week’s contest. His dynamism will make him an enticing, high-ceiling Flex play down the fantasy stretch.

Remaining injury-free to this point of the season has allowed Will Fuller to reach his fantasy football potential. His dominance is represented in his +26.7 (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium and 28.4-percent (No. 18) Dominator Rating. Sidney Jones’ sample size is too small for his stats to qualify among cornerbacks, but his 14.5 Yards Per Reception Allowed is a problematic stat when matching up with a deep threat such as Fuller.

A touchdown in Week 2 prevented Marvin Jones from scoring under 10.0 fantasy points in each of the first five games despite Kenny Golladay missing the first two. Since then, he has scored 13.0 or more fantasy points in both of his games and had his two best showings as it relates to Air Yards. Fortunately for Jones, Minnesota’s primary coverage for him this week is Kris Boyd, who draws the start with the Vikings missing most of their cornerbacks due to injuries.

Two inches taller and 20-pounds heavier than his running mate Devin Singletary, it’s become apparent that Zack Moss is the preferred goal-line option for the Bills. This puts him in the low to mid RB2 range. Josh Allen will continue to cannibalize a portion of red zone carries and the timeshare with Singletary isn’t going away. However, Moss’ touchdown upside is music to the ears of dynasty owners.

Seeing his first career start in Week 6, Albert Okwuegbunam filled in for an injured Noah Fant and tied for the team lead with six targets. He converted them into two receptions for 45 yards. Although his opportunity has decreased with Fant back in the fold, he remains on the field, running 14 routes in Week 8 and catching his lone target for a TD. The landscape of the NFL changes fast. The fourth-round rookie is a high-upside TE stash and player to monitor in dynasty leagues.

Corey Davis has largely struggled in the NFL, but he hasn’t been Josh Doctson or Laquon Treadwell-level bad. He posted 955 yards from scrimmage in his second NFL season. That came on a Titans offense that ranked No. 25 in total yards per game. Davis is a volatile WR3 and has a non-zero chance of continuing to outproduce A.J. Brown in the coming weeks.

Marquise Brown’s usage has been supreme. He has a 23.8-percent (No. 15 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and a 38.9-percent (No. 7) Air Yards Share. The problem has been his quarterback’s accuracy. Unless Lamar Jackson miraculously turns his season around, Brown should be viewed as a boom/bust WR3. As the top-target of the reigning MVP, Brown may have more value in trades than he’s actually worth.