Fantasy Football

Deshaun Watson recorded his first win of the season, pouring 359 yards and three scores on the Jaguars. The Texans lock horns with the divisional rival Titans next week. An opponent Watson has averaged 262 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns against over their last four matchups. He will be a popular DFS play in both cash and tournaments, and I’m not the one to talk you out of him.

Chase Claypool destroyed the Eagles defensive backs all day long, with Darius Slay occupying a combination of JuJu Smith-Schuster and an injured Diontae Johnson. The Notre Dame WR/TE hybrid touched the ball ten times, recording 111 yards to go along with his four scores. He’s a truly unique aspect of the Steelers offense that appeared back to full force on Sunday on the way to a 4-0 start.

Newly-minted starting QBs always make for priority waiver wire targets. Especially when they have Konami Code upside and are among the most efficient college QBs of all time. Skip the middle man. Get Tua Tagovailoa on your roster now to avoid the inevitable rush to acquire him when he becomes the starter in Miami. If Ryan Fitzpatrick has another dud this week and the Dolphins drop to 1-4, Tua Time may come sooner than anticipated.

With Russell Wilson finally being allowed to play at an MVP-caliber level, it makes sense to target pieces of his passing offense. That includes David Moore, who comes off his best statistical and fantasy outing of the young season. The Snap Share and routes have trended downwards, but Moore still went 3-95-1 on four Week 4 targets, also logging 81 Air Yards despite a season-low 13 routes run. Despite a 7.6 (No. 31 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility mark, it shows that we want to have him stashed to play in deeper leagues in the right matchups.

At 5-10 and 216-pounds, Damien Harris shows quickness. He posted above average marks in Speed Score and Burst Score, with a 4.57 40-Yard Dash that ranks in the 56th-percentile among qualified running backs. With Sony Michel out for the foreseeable future due to a quad injury, Harris becomes a focal point of the New England ground attack. Once Cam Newton returns, the offense will become more productive. This is a boon for Harris, who can take some of those goal line carries.

In 2018, Harris caught 22 passes on 23 targets for 204 yards at 9.2 yards per reception. Yes, he had a 5.3-percent (27th-percentile) College Target Share, but he did share the backfield with Josh Jacobs during that 2018 season. Jacobs himself had 20 receptions for 247 yards that year. The floor with Harris will be solid, and the touchdowns will come. Adding a few receptions per game isn’t out of the question, and would be a boon for the back and those who roster him.

Pierre Desir’s 92.9-percent Catch Rate Allowed is the worst among cornerbacks that have been targeted more than three times. Wide receivers covered by Desir average 3.14 yards of Target Separation Allowed when the pass arrives at the wide receiver. That will prove problematic for Desir once again this week with DeAndre Hopkins averaging 2.04 (No. 23 among qualified wide receivers) yards of Target Separation.

Jeff Gladney is credited with allowing the most yards per route cover (2.46) according to PFF. Tyler Lockett averages 0.54 (No. 14) Fantasy Points Per Route Run and 37 (No. 16) Routes Run per Game. There are 30 cornerbacks with a higher Slot Rate than Gladney’s 25.8-percent mark. Of those cornerbacks, only four allow more than the 14.8 Yards per Reception that Gladney does. Good luck stopping Lockett in the slot.

Speaking candidly, there isn’t a singular thing that Isaiah Ford does great, per se. However, with bye weeks here, he’s a viable bye-week replacement with a floor. He has a 91.4-percent (No. 2 among qualified wide receivers) Slot Rate, an 8.1 (No. 85) Average Target Distance, and zero (No. 119) Deep Targets for the Dolphins thus far. This indicates he has a semblance of a floor, with the majority of his targets occurring near the line of scrimmage.

Playing on an offense averaging 44.2 (No. 3) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and with a respectable 11.1 (No. 49) Average Target Distance, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Olamide Zaccheaus to start converting his opportunities into touchdowns. If Julio Jones is ruled out, it’s Calvin Ridley taking on the opposing defense’s No. 1 corner. That alone opens up softer coverage and potential spots in the defense for Zaccheaus, who has logged 41 (No. 66) Yards After Catch thus far, to exploit.

Justin Jefferson played on less than 80-percent of Minnesota’s snaps through two weeks, but has topped that number in both of the following weeks. The only argument against him is his offense. The Vikings are known as a run-first team, but that choice might not be on the table for them going forward. They allow their opponents to average 8.4 yards per attempt to opposing passers. If they’re going to keep getting into shootouts, Jefferson has WR2 upside every week.

Kenyan Drake is an inferior running back to Chase Edmonds and can only operate as the top back in Arizona for so long before that sends him to the bench. Edmonds has him bested in Breakaway Run Rate, Production Premium, Expected Points Added, and Yards per Route Run among other metrics. He’s the better pass-catcher, which makes Drake a grinder like Damien Harris or Adrian Peterson.

Justin Jefferson has been productive and is clearly locked into the No. 2 wide receiver role in Minnesota. Over four games, he ranks No. 8 among qualified wide receivers with 348 receiving yards and 126 Yards After Catch. From an efficiency standpoint, he has been unreal. He has a whopping 3.70 (No. 1) Yards per Route Run, a 1.95 (No. 28) Target Separation mark, earns 17.4 (No. 1) Yards per Target, and has committed zero (No. 81) drops. With an impressive 21.8 (No. 3) Yards per Reception, the rookie delivers chain-moving chunk plays.

Rookie Darnell Mooney has out-snapped Anthony Miller in three consecutive weeks. In Week 3, they each ran 35 routes and saw five targets. In Week 4, Mooney ran more routes and saw more targets. A possible third-year breakout candidate, Miller’s dynasty value has been trending the wrong way to start 2020. The production needs to live up to the potential sooner than later, or it will be last call for Miller Time.

Through three games, Jonnu Smith has smashed. He has recorded 13 (No. 13 among qualified tight ends) receptions for 181 (No. 9) receiving yards and averages 16.4 (No. 3) Fantasy Points per Game. Smith has drawn 20 (No. 12) targets, a 20.6-percent (No. 5) Target Share, 135 (No. 17) Air Yards (No. 17), and a 17.2-percent (No. 12) Air Yards Share. Even with the low Air Yards total, Smith has racked up 100 (No. 6) Yards After Catch.

Hunter Henry washed away the narrative and concern surrounding a new quarterback other than Philip Rivers targeting the tight end position. Amongst tight ends, Henry has earned a 19.5-percent (No. 9) Target Share with 225 (No. 8) Air Yards and a 20.1-percent (No. 8) Air Yards Share. Henry has averaged 10.6 (No. 15) Fantasy Points per Game without even scoring a touchdown yet. He’s a must-start player and should be targeted aggressively in trades.

PlayerProfiler subscribers already know all about Joshua Kelley’s upside. He’s healthy Sony Michel. His usage was throttled back in favor of Austin Ekeler over these last few weeks, but Ekeler is slated to miss 4-6 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. The split between Kelley and Justin Jackson is yet to be seen, but both players warrant a bid going into the Week 5 waiver run.

Julio Jones is dealing with lingering hamstring issues, paving the way for more opportunity for Olamide Zaccheaus, who profiles as a proficient slot receiver best comparable to Jamison Crowder. His 34.1-percent (94th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Target Share and 19.1 (88th-percentile) Breakout Age suggest that this undrafted free agent belongs on NFL rosters and fantasy teams alike.

Give an athletic phenom 16 targets in the perfect Game Script, and that’s the Amari Cooper ceiling scenario. Cooper racked up 134 yards and a score on 12 catches in a game where Dak Prescott had over 500 passing yards. The Cowboys can’t stop anyone, and it makes for unreal passing volume. Cooper is a top-5 play going forward, especially as Michael Gallup fades further into the ether. 

Joe Mixon ran well against the poor Jaguars defense, with a long burst of 34 yards. The offensive line woes for the Bengals have been highly publicized, but Joe Burrow’s continued improvement week over week has forced defenses to spread out against the balanced attack. Mixon will attempt to continue his success against… the Baltimore Ravens. He makes for a choice tournament play with a precocious Joe Burrow ready to do battle with a Ravens team that’s shown unevenness in games they trail.