Fantasy Football

Antonio Gibson tops all 2020 drafted RBs with a 122.8 (99th-percentile among qualified running backs) Speed Score; top 10 overall on PlayerProfiler.com. It’s no surprise that when he handed a larger workload in Week 12, he produced high-end RB1 numbers. The 22-year-old gains 19.79 Lifetime Value points, the most of all RBs, to move from RB14 to RB11 in the dynasty rankings.

In nine games, Matt Breida has 47 carries for 168 yards, averages 3.6 (No. 62) True Yards Per Carry, and has nine catches for 96 yards with no touchdowns. He now finds himself on the reserve/COVID-19 list. It’s unfortunate timing. The Dolphins are shorthanded in the backfield with Washington now sidelined by a hamstring injury. Breida’s stock continues to fall with his ranking dropping from RB65 to RB80 over the past two weeks.

In spite of averaging 31.1 (No. 29) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and totaling 321 (No. 20 among qualified quarterbacks) Pass Attempts, Kirk Cousins proves to make the most of his opportunity with 23 (No.7) passing touchdowns. As pointed out by Around The NFL’s Gregg Rosenthal, Cousins is demonstrating a Jameis Winston-esque all-or-nothing mentality in 2020, totaling 1,663 (No. 7) Completed Air Yards thus far. Fortunately for fantasy managers starting him, he’s totaled just 11 interceptions as well.

Don’t look now, but Jordan Reed has commanded six targets in consecutive games from Weeks 10 and 12 – after returning from injury Week 9. While he’s a part-time player, typically totaling a 40-percent Snap Share, Reed’s Target Rate sits over 30-percent in the aforementioned games. Last week, he led the 49ers offense with 84 Air Yards, and he has a 19.0-percent (No. 9) Air Yards Share on the season. This week, Reed faces a Bills defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Go trade for Antonio Gibson because he looks like he’ll be a three-down back to close out the year. He ran over twice as many routes on Thanksgiving as J.D. McKissic, who only saw two targets. If Gibson is able to solidify himself as the primary runner and pass-catching back in Washington, he will be a top-five running back in the fantasy playoffs.

The Titans use a committee approach at tight end, and the only thing holding Jonnu Smith back from being Irv Smith this year is touchdown efficiency. The problem is that Tennessee is fine running two tight ends, with the non-Smith tight end being the route-runner. He’s fancy Cameron Brate, and if the touchdowns ever stop flowing, expect to be holding more zeroes than TE1 games.

The will they-won’t they relationship between the Rams coaching staff and Cam Akers’ starting role has been the talk of the town for weeks. Akers’ Week 12 efficiency (9-84-1) dwarfed Darrell Henderson’s 19 yards on three carries and Malcolm Brown’s 19 scrimmage yards on five total touches. Project forward. Pray that McVay read the box score and plays his young stud as a workhorse in Week 13 against the Cardinals.

With high playoff upside, Tim Patrick remains a featured add in this column for two weeks straight. His schedule includes a potential Week 13 shootout with the Chiefs, Carolina’s soft secondary in Week 14, and another potential shootout in Week 16 against the Chargers. Patrick is a featured weapon with high upside when Drew Lock returns to the lineup.

Derrick Henry took advantage of a depleted Indy front to the tune of 178 yards and a trio of rushing scores. The absence of DeForest Buckner and Bobby Okereke was felt as Henry steamrolled in the first half, doing all but 48 yards of his damage before halftime. Henry remains arguably the highest-ceiling running back in fantasy, and all while contributing next to nothing in the passing game.

Justin Jefferson filled in seamlessly as the Vikings’ top receiver with Adam Thielen on the COVID list. He saw a season-high 13 targets, collecting seven for 70 yards and two scores. Olabisi Johnson actually led the team in receiving with 74 yards, but Jefferson will be a great play again next week whether or not Thielen is able to return against Jacksonville.

Cole Beasley is fantasy football’s WR24 and you didn’t even know it. Rostered in just over 51-percent of ESPN leagues, Beasley is the No. 2 receiver for QB6 Josh Allen. John Brown won’t play this week, and this Chargers-Bills implied point total is the third-highest as well. Don’t let Beasley rot on waivers! He’s coming off his best game, a 27.9-point performance against the Jets before the team’s Week 11 bye, but he’s also totaled at least 11.0 PPR fantasy points in all but three games.

With Todd Gurley ruled out for Week 12, Brian Hill faces the Raiders in a matchup with the second-highest implied point total of the week. Adding juice to the matchup is the fact the Raiders defense fields the worst Rush DVOA thus far and allows the fourth-most fantasy points to backs. If the inefficient Gurley, offering no receiving value, can average 13.9 (No. 18 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game while creating 137.9 (No. 11) Weighted Opportunities, Hill can’t be worse.

Injuries have slowed down stud wide receiver Julio Jones and he’s now fallen outside of the Top 40 on PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings. Sadly, Jones lost 13.01 Lifetime Value points to drop seven spots to WR44, making him the biggest WR faller on the rankings. Still capable of producing big weeks, Jones has become a boom or bust option this season. He has three top 12 fantasy WR performances, but also has three weeks outside of the Top 60.

Featured as a market riser back in Week 2, Diontae Johnson’s dynasty stock would have hit WR1 levels long ago if not for a few injury hiccups. Johnson earned a season high 16 targets in Week 11 and has seen over 10 targets in every game that he hasn’t been hampered by injury. Johnson gained 26.14 Lifetime Value points and moved up eight spots to WR18, making him the biggest riser on the dynasty rankings.

This year, Chase Edmonds is top-10 among qualified running backs in Breakaway Run Rate, Yards per Touch, and Production Premium. Because he is so efficient on a regular basis, Edmonds has been an RB2 in five of eight weeks that Kenyan Drake was active for and finished. If your league still allows trading, buy Edmonds as a volatile RB2 with top-five upside if Drake gets hurt again. If your league doesn’t, keep tabs on him in case his owner decided to cut him after more healthy games from Drake.

Jarvis Landry’s struggles have been two-fold. The first is that he simply has not been efficient in any way as evidenced by his -18.0-percent (No. 95) Target Premium and -16.1 (No. 71) Production Premium. The second is that his team is trying to play football like it’s the 1960s and is passing just 29.3 times per game, No. 32 in the NFL. Players need to be either efficient or pumped up with volume to succeed as fantasy assets. Landry is neither.

Gus Edwards is the next man up for Baltimore going into a Primetime Thanksgiving matchup. Both J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram will sit due to COVID regulations. Edwards has a high chance of being a one week workhorse on the short week with few options behind him and Justice Hill being relegated to special teams.

Nelson Agholor is the WR1 for Derek Carr. It feels wrong to say that, but it has become the truth. In his first season with the Raiders, he has scored six total touchdowns and is averaging 19.3 Yards Per Reception. Agholor is the epitome of a boom or bust receiver, but you can toss him in your Flex and pray for the boom if you are desperate.

Justin Jefferson has thrived as the clear second option in the lowest volume pass offense in the league. He’s the WR11 through 11 weeks. It’s a wild contradiction and he’s done it through explosive speed after the catch (his 280 YAC rank top-10 in the league) and capitalizing on Kirk Cousins’ Deep Ball Attempts (his 482 Completed Air Yards is also a top-10 mark). Oh, and he’s sporting league-bests with 14.1 Yards per Target and 3.20 Yards per Route Run.

Justin Herbert has been a complete surprise since picking up in Week 2, and he set a new career-high with 366 passing yards against the hopeless Jets on Sunday. Herbert has become an elite DFS play every week, regardless of matchup. The matchup against the Bills, fresh off a bye, has the second-highest total on the slate so far at 54 points, and we should stack this game every way we can think of.