Fantasy Football

Since Dak Prescott’s devastating injury, Amari Cooper has not topped 62 Air Yards in a game, and now third-string rookie Ben DiNucci is the starting quarterback. With DiNucci under center, the Cowboys have the second-fewest Implied Vegas Points (18.00) this week. Darius Slay ranks in the top-10 with 9.4 (No. 5 among qualified cornerbacks) Yards Per Reception Allowed and 5.8 (No. 8) Yards Per Target Allowed.

Volume is key to fantasy production, but Keenan Allen’s -29.2-percent (No. 97) Target Premium, 7.27 (No. 48) Target Accuracy, and 81.6 (No. 81) QB Rating When Targeted reveal that he benefits more once he has the ball in his hands rather than catching longer passes that defenses fear. While he may see the same target volume he’s become accustomed to, Bryce Callahan’s 1.20 (No. 5) Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target will make it a disappointing performance.

Coming off a No. 4 finish at his position on a Bengals team averaging 46.0 (No. 2) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and with a league-leading 293 pass attempts, Joe Burrow is a suitable bye-week replacement for Deshaun Watson or Kyler Murray. Tennessee’s defense ranks No. 17 in DVOA and has allowed at least two passing touchdowns to signal-callers in every game since Week 2. You can do worse than Burrow.

A bet on Denzel Mims this week is a bet on talent. Mims finally made his pro debut last week, totaling a 97.8-percent Snap Share, seven targets on 26 routes run (26.9-percent Target Rate), and four receptions for 42 yards. The Jets average 37.7 (No. 12) Team Pass Plays Per Game, while the Jets-Chiefs implied point total sits at 49 AND the Jets are 19.5-point underdogs. This indicates the potential for a decent amount of scoring and that the Jets will have to pass to keep up.

While Davante Adams’ offense ranks in the bottom-half of the league with a 36 (No. 22) Team Pass Plays Per Game average, he outpaces every other receiver in the top-12 with a dominant 33.8-percent (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share. Averaging 11.5 (No. 1) targets per game, even in a low-volume pass offense, it’s clear Adams will remain a top-3 receiver for the rest of the season.

In response to the #LetRussCook movement, Tyler Lockett has led the charge among Seattle pass-catchers. While he and D.K. Metcalf are one of two duos to enter the top-12, Lockett commands the higher Target Share. This receiving corps is a consolidated passing tree, with Lockett and Metcalf accounting for nearly 50-percent of Russell Wilson’s pass attempts. Combined, the duo also accounts for nearly 70-percent of the team’s Air Yards Share.

Despite some spotty quarterback play, Brandon Aiyuk is third amongst rookie WRs with 2.28 (No. 17 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Target. Through six career games, he has also outperformed Deebo Samuel from a fantasy perspective on both a total and game-by-game basis. With Deebo out for at least the next couple of games due to a hamstring injury, look for Air Aiyuk’s dynasty stock to hit new heights.

Before activating any panic buttons, let’s refresh ourselves on Cam Akers’ prospect profile. At 5-10, 217-pounds, he owns a 39.8-percent (89th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, 10.4-percent (78th-percentile) College Target Share, and a 108.7 (89th-percentile) Speed Score. Yes, he has a three-down profile. At this point, he’s a hold for those who have him in dynasty. Those presented with the opportunity to buy this talented profile at value may be wise to take advantage.

Ezekiel Elliott will get loaded with carries and targets going forward, but his upside as the primary running back for a Ben DiNucci-led offense is basement-level. A running back will only be as good as their offense lets them be, and Elliott may be playing for one of the worst offenses in the league for the rest of the season. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if he performs like Le’Veon Bell did with the Jets last year.

JuJu Smith-Schuster finally came back to life in Week 7 with 15 targets, but those did not come at Diontae Johnson’s expense. Chase Claypool was the odd man out with only one look in the passing game. Johnson produced as a rookie in the NFL with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges as his quarterbacks. Unsurprisingly, the upgrade to Ben Roethlisberger has been a godsend for him. The No. 1 receiver on a competent passing offense, he has WR1 potential if he can stay healthy.

When given the opportunity in 2019, Wayne Gallman did have an RB1 week with 23.8 half PPR points. He has a brutal Week 8 matchup against a lights-out Tampa Bay run defense, but needs to be acquired since he has shown the most upside of the Giants RBs to this point and may be the starter for the foreseeable future. The severity of Devonta Freeman’s ankle injury is unknown, but Gallman has RB2 upside if Freeman is out.

In his first action since Week 2, Sterling Shepard logged a season-high 78.8-percent Snap Share, while also recording season-highs with eight targets, three red zone targets, 59 receiving yards, 60 Air Yards and 17.9 (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) fantasy points. He’s the de facto WR1 for the Giants and has low-end WR3 upside so long as he stays healthy. The offense overall is lackluster, but Shepard will maintain fantasy relevance in PPR formats.

Antonio Gibson got a bump with the axing of Derrius Guice, and he finally saw a full slate of work against the laughable Cowboys on Sunday. The rookie turned 20 carries into 128 yards and a touchdown, with one carry going for 40 yards. Gibson profiles as a three-down workhorse with the requisite size at 6-0, 228-pounds and it’s only a matter of time until the receiving work and rushing share synthesize into the role he’s capable of.

Travis Fulgham has risen into the top 50 of wide receivers on PlayerProfiler.com’s dynasty rankings and for good reason. The former sixth-rounder has flat out been the best offensive player for the Eagles this season, and the loss of Zach Ertz to IR will only increase the Old Dominion product’s Target Share, which was already top-12 in the league. He is a premier buy in dynasty leagues as half the teams in your league are likely starting to sell pieces to improve their rookie draft stock.

Despite an in-season coaching change, Calvin Ridley’s role in Atlanta’s offense remained unchanged. He ran 38 routes last week, which was the second-most he has run in a game this season, and finished as WR10 despite teammate Julio Jones receiving more targets and finishing as WR2 on the week. Jeff Okudah is the equivalent of an open door to wide receivers he covers. On the season, he has allowed 294 receiving yards on 138 Routes Defended.

Matt Rhule, the former Temple coach, has unlocked his former Temple player Robby Anderson, who has excelled in his high-volume role this season. Wide receivers have had their way against Patrick Robinson in his two games with New Orleans. Last week, he struggled to contain Jalen Guyton and his 4.44 (83rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-Yard Dash speed. Good luck stopping Anderson and his 4.41 (91st-percentile) 40-Yard Dash speed.

Mixon is a true bellcow back in a league that has few. He had no scores and three targets per game through three weeks. Giovani Bernard was seeing more opportunities in the passing game and it looked like Mixon would be relegated to a grinder role once again. In the following three weeks, Mixon has scored four times and been targeted 17 times. He’s top-10 in running back targets over that span.

T.Y. Hilton’s inefficiency is brutal and it’s only compounded by his lack volume. Both his Target Share and Air Yards Share rank outside the top-30 receivers. He was out-targeted by Marcus Johnson and Zach Pascal last week. Hilton is on bye this week, so it might be worth waiting to sell low because his market will get a slight bump once he’s back in action. Look to move him for anyone with a pulse including Travis Fulgham, Preston Williams, and Randall Cobb.

The opportunity has always been there for Logan Thomas. The former quarterback has recorded a 92.5-percent (No. 4 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share, a 17.1-percent (No. 11) Target Share on a team averaging 40.3 (No. 7) Team Pass Plays Per Game, a 95.4-percent (No. 2) Route Participation mark, and a 17.3-percent (No. 68) Target Rate. Adding Thomas is a bet on Kyle Allen to consistently target him with catchable passes. If you need a tight end, you can do worse than Thomas against the Cowboys.

Through three games, Trey Burton has totaled 16 (No. 30) targets on 58 (No. 43) Routes Run, good for a 27.6-percent (No. 25) Target Rate. While the Colts average 34.7 (No. 27) Team Pass Plays Per Game, the team ranks No. 16 in tight end targets. That isn’t an elite allocation of targets to the position, but it’s enough to keep Burton fantasy relevant if his usage remains comparable after his bye.