Fantasy Football

Amon-Ra St. Brown and Nico Collins jump up the board after landing in super shallow receiver rooms. St. Brown can seize a phenomenal opportunity to be the alpha in Detroit with his 86th-percentile Burst. Not to mention that he also checks the boxes for upper-percentile College Dominator Rating (62nd-percentile) and Breakout Age (91st-percentile).

Seth Williams is the biggest faller in this round after going at the 3.07 in the previous mock. Sixth round draft capital to a team with a crowded wide receiver depth chart sunk the value of what was once a coveted prospect in this circle. Though his upper-percentile College Dominator Rating, Breakout Age, and Speed Score give him the potential to break out regardless of his situation.

Jaylen Waddle to the Dolphins is an interesting landing spot. He’ll be competing with Will Fuller, DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and Mike Gesicki for targets. No doubt a crowded offense for him to break out in, but he does have a connection with Tua Tagovailoa. Still, he doesn’t have an alpha profile, and his Best Comparable Players aren’t exciting either, with John Brown being his most favorable.

When you think of a player both film grinders and analytics gurus can enjoy, DeVonta Smith definitely doesn’t come to mind. Yes, Smith was a great college player, but his weight is the big issue. A listed weight of 170-pounds certainly warrants skepticism. Only a couple players come to mind when you think of successful lightweight receivers: Marvin Harrison and Chad Johnson. When it comes to weight, he is undoubtedly an outlier.

Grab a cup of water, this mock comes out of the gate HOT! Setting flames to a stacked QB class, Kyle Pitts boldly goes at the 1.01. That’s planting a flag, love the assertiveness! The win-win move is probably trading back and still acquiring Pitts – that’s not an option in this mock. He’s an uber talent, but the rookie has significant work to do to match the ultra-high expectations of this draft season.

In this TE premium format, our drafters take a gamble on several upside TEs in Round 5. Focusing on the right details, each of the tight-ends selected have one thing in common – athleticism. For instance, 6-5, 250-pound John Bates has an 11.20 (89th-percentile among qualified tight ends) Agility Score, while Indy’s Kylen Granson exhibits 75th-plus-percentile metrics across agility, burst and 40-time. The late-round lesson here: bet on athletes.

It should come as no surprise that the rookie tight with the best chance of being fantasy relevant in 2021 is Kyle Pitts. Shocking, I know. But when a team makes a player the highest-drafted tight end in NFL HISTORY, you have to assume that they have a plan to use him. The defense did not appreciably improve from the woeful unit it was last year, and should once again rely on Matt Ryan’s arm, which is good news for Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and of course Pitts.

Brevin Jordan joins a crowded tight end room, with players like Jordan Akins, Kahale Warring and Ryan Izzo for company. But the turbulent nature of the Texans means we don’t know who will be tasked with sending the ball their way in 2021 and beyond. Jordan could emerge as this year’s Chris Herndon. An unspectacular prospect who was able to post decent fantasy production as a rookie. But betting on anything positive emerging from the Texans at present is a gamble I would not like to take.

Of the 138 tight ends drafted since 2011, only Evan Engram finished his rookie year with a top five fantasy point-scoring season. “But what about that Falcons offense? Wasn’t that the best possible landing spot and doesn’t that guarantee Kyle Pitts to be a top fantasy tight end this year?” When Pitts finishes closer to No. 10 than No. 5, those that took him early in their best ball and redraft leagues will be disappointed.

In best ball and redraft leagues thus far, Pitts is being drafted like a top five fantasy tight end. While he has an impressive profile and draft capital, we have seen players with similar profiles in the past have varying career success levels. Spending a top 60 pick in best ball or a top 2 pick in dynasty rookie drafts on someone other than Pitts is a smarter decision based on history.

Look for offensive fit and/or a unique opportunity when evaluating a rookie’s fantasy outlook. Brandon Aiyuk’s game is similar to Deebo Samuel’s, and seeing that he would fit right into the 49ers offense helped raise him as “my guy.” Ultimately, Aiyuk caught short passes, shed tackles, drew Deep Targets, and received rushing carries in a multi-faceted role, like Samuel’s in 2019.

Devin Singletarys’s rookie year efficiency and production led me to believe he would be the lead back with rookie Zack Moss behind him. Honestly, I got carried away staking my claim into the next “great” fantasy PPR running back, trying to find another Alvin Kamara, and his ADP for 2020 was low enough for me to believe he would be a high-reward RB2.

There are no other WRs like Allen Robinson on Chicago’s roster. He’s 6-2, 220-pounds. He’s fast – with a 103.2 (78th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Speed Score, athletic – with a 129.8 (87th-percentile) Burst Score, and he has a 10.28 (91st-percentile) Catch Radius. Their other receivers – Damiere Byrd, Marquise Goodwin, Darnell Mooney and newcomer Dazz Newsome – are older, tiny and/or late-round special teams candidates with average-at-best measurables.

Andy Dalton is a 34-year old, now average-at-best QB on a one-year deal. Per Pro Football Reference, he hasn’t been in the top half of QB rankings in the last four seasons. He doesn’t run. We could look further into his metrics but it really doesn’t matter. If Dalton starts all 17 games and/or Nick Foles has to come in, the GM and head coach will be fired and the new coach will not move into 2022 with Dalton at the helm.

If Nick Chubb and J.K. Dobbins switched jerseys for a game, casual football fans would not bat an eye. Dobbins has a slighter frame at 5-10 and 209-pounds, compared to the larger Chubb who is 5-11 and clocks in at 227-pounds. Both running backs are built compact, which gives them their natural power but does not take away from their blazing speed. These traits are confirmed by their impressive 98th-percentile SPARQ-x scores.

Both backs set themselves apart from the rest of the pack by each ranking top 5 in advanced elusiveness statistics such as True Yards Per Carry, Yards Per Touch, Breakaway Run Rate, Juke Rate, Expected Points Added, and Yards Created Per Touch. In plain English, these dudes make defenders miss and can take it to the house. Unfortunately, the lack of receiving involvement has followed them from college into the NFL, at least thus far.

While Josh Imatorbhebhe’s lack of college production can be explained, the landing spot isn’t ideal. The Jacksonville Jaguars are loaded up at the wide receiver position, but the good news is that the majority of those ahead of the Illinois product are expendable, and more than passable on the depth chart. He has the athleticism to turn heads and make an impression.

At 6-3 and 207-pounds, Tamorrion Terry ran a 4.50 (68th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-yard Dash and posted a 103.7 (80th-percentile) Speed Score. D’Wayne Eskridge will have his opportunity and there are other players to pass along the depth chart, but should Terry impress early in camp, Pete Carroll has shown he’ll ride talent over draft capital (a la Russell Wilson). 

The success of Mike Gesicki and other late-round tight ends last season confirmed the process of fading the average draft positions outside of the “Big Three.” Past Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller, the Fantasy Points per Game differential between TE1’s will be within two to three points per game. Buying early into a small differential carries a heavy opportunity cost.

Quarterback play was a factor I did not consider enough when drafting wide receivers in 2020. I valued D.J. Chark over the likes of Will Fuller and Stefon Diggs. This was bad process, and my most fatal error. If a receiver like Chark can only attain quality targets in shallow ranges, it will be difficult for him to produce.