Fantasy Football

Chuba Hubbard is easily the most exciting and valuable addition for this week if he is available in your leagues. Hubbard filled in for Christian McCaffrey when he went down, rushing 11 times for 52 yards. He also caught three passes for 27 yards. He has a great shot at being an every-week RB2 for as many weeks as CMC misses. Last season, Mike Davis was one of the better waiver wire additions all season; history could repeat itself. Hubbard has an ample opportunity.

Dalton Schultz had a career night on Monday Night Football with six catches for 80 yards and two TDs in Dallas’ 41-21 beatdown of Philadelphia. He led the Cowboys in targets, and Dak Prescott seems to have faith in him. Schultz, not Blake Jarwin, is the Cowboys TE to roster. We want exposure to the Cowboys offense, and Schultz is available in many leagues.

Devonta Smith is the clear No. 1 WR for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. The “Slim Reaper” had a 51.2-percent (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share and a 26.8-percent (No. 16) Target Share through the first 2 games of the season and saw 6 of 38 team targets Monday night. While his week 2 and 3 lines did not look great, chase the targets. Against a bad defense in Week 4, Smith has a good chance to put up numbers similar to his Week 1 output.

Rondale Moore was a popular waiver add the last couple weeks. However, the speedy and agile receiver only saw two targets for two receptions and a yard last week. Moore has taken the majority of his snaps out of the slot. However, Christian Kirk is a major slot receiver for the team as well, and Moore hasn’t overtaken him yet, with just a 42.1-percent (No. 95) Snap Share prior to Week 3’s dud. Apart from top-15 WR Chris Godwin, the Rams have not allowed many yards to slot receivers.

This week the Philadelphia Eagles travel to play their hated divisional rival Dallas Cowboys for Week 3’s MNF game. The game will be a measuring stick for how good the Eagles’ offense is this season. For the Cowboys, they need to prove that their road victory over the Chargers and near upset of the Buccaneers was not a façade.

Are you ready for Devonta Smith week? The rookie has 237 (No. 11) Air Yards, a 51.2-percent (No. 6) Air Yards Share, and a 26.8-percent (No. 16) Target Share. Dallas is going to allow Air Yards. It’s a guarantee that a large portion will go to Smith. I see Pollard and his 18.8-percent Breakaway Run Rate and 47.8-percent (No. 4) Juke Rate scoring more fantasy points than Elliott on MNF.

The key to finding receivers rostered in less than 50-percent of leagues with startable upside is to follow the Air Yards. This week is no different when it comes to my two start recommendations. Emmanuel Sanders has 235 (No. 12) Air Yards, with 145 (No. 7) being Unrealized Air Yards.

Regardless of whether Antonio Brown plays or not, Mike Evans is a sit for me in Week 3. Opposing tight ends are targeted 19 times in two games against the Rams’ defense. Moore leads the Jets with 173 (No. 32) Air Yards, with 134 (N0. 9) being Unrealized Air Yards. The Broncos defense, thanks to Callahan, take away the check-down options and allow an Average Target Distance of 10.8.

Through two games, Tony Pollard’s efficiency metrics are outstanding with top marks for True Yards Per Carry (6.9, No. 1), Yards Created Per Touch (5.22, No. 1), Juke Rate (47.8-percent, No. 4), and Evaded Tackles (11, No. 10). Pollard earns 12.09 Lifetime Value points to climbs six spots to RB24. Standalone value with immense upside, who doesn’t like that?

Jameis Winston’s metrics are nearly as bad as his Week 2 interceptions. Through two contests he has an Adjusted Yards Per Attempt mark of 5.8 (No. 26) with a 65.8 (No. 30) True Completion Percentage. Jameis has committed four (No. 8) Interceptable Passes and six (No. 9) Danger Plays with a lowly 6.6 (No. 31) Accuracy Rating . With the New England Patriots on tap and Taysom Hill waiting in the wings, Winston drops four spots in the dynasty rankings to QB28.

Fantasy Football leagues aren’t won at the draft. They’re won by the subsequent moves made via trades and the waiver wire. Studs like Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown have had rough enough starts to the season to convince holders that it might be time to jump ship, despite having solid opportunity shares and a proven history of elite talent.

Noah Fant is the locked-in number two in the Broncos offense, but hasn’t yet had “the game” to jumpstart his breakout. James White is a bonafide weekly flex play in PPR leagues given his current role with the Patriots. Finally, Leonard Fournette is the cheapest bell-cow back currently on the trade block.

Patience. It can be very hard to stay patient on a high pick like Saquon Barkley, but he draws a favorable matchup against the Falcons after many sat him last week against Washington. He showed signs of a return to form on a 41-yard run against Washington last week. Yet, he has shown little else with a bad offensive line and suspect play calling. If there was as good a time as any, Barkley has a chance to breakout Week 3 against Atlanta.

Marquez Callaway WR1 season has gotten off to a rocky start. He has 3 receptions on 6 targets in two weeks. J.C. Jackson brings another tough matchup this week. Jameis Winston is also coming off a rough outing with 2 interceptions in Week 2. The Patriots have 5 interceptions and held apposing QBs to 210 yards or less in Weeks 1 and 2. Both Callaway and Winston have a tough opponent in Week 3.

Justin Fields looks set for his first start this season against Cleveland with Andy Dalton out with a knee injury. He should spark the offense with his scrambling ability. He is a starter in SuperFlex leagues right away and can be immediately considered for QB-streaming teams. He has elite scrambling ability and a fine pair of WRs in Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney. Fields could be just what the doctor ordered to ignite the team and the fan base.

We discussed K.J. Osborn as a player dynasty managers should add. At this point, he should be added in all formats. Operating as the third option in the Minnesota passing attack, he followed up a seven-catch opener with five more catches this past weekend, including a 64-yard TD reception. Osborn could be the next in a long line of University of Miami WRs to have solid NFL careers. 

With Trey Sermon inactive and Raheem Mostert suffering a knee injury, Elijah Mitchell saw an 82.6-percent Opportunity Share. He produced a True Yards Per Carry Rate of 4.9 (No. 13 among qualified RBs) with 7 (No. 4) Evaded Tackles and a 36.8-percent (No. 5) Juke Rate. It’s fully expected that the 49ers will involve multiple RBs. However, Mitchell is the elite athlete of the group on a team that’s likely to face plenty of positive Game Script.

Those who tuned into NFL Top-10 (plus) Takeaways already know that The Podfather is worried about Tua Tagovailoa. Miami inched by the Patriots 17-16, but Tua was anything but sharp. Looking past the box score we find 4 (No. 3) Danger Plays and 4 (No. 4) Interceptable Passes. Tagovailoa had an abysmal 37.3 (No. 31) True Passer Rating and a 7.0 (No. 24) Accuracy Rating. He loses 10.23 Lifetime Value points and lands outside of the Top 20 QBs in our dynasty rankings.

Diontae Johnson was a top-10 WR in Week 1 in Target Share (31.3-percent), Hog Rate (25.0-percent), and Target Rate (37.0-percent). However, Johnson will face stiff coverage from Casey Hayward (No. 17-ranked CB) in a game that the Steelers are projected to handle with ease. Volume is key to fantasy points scored. In 2020, Johnson averaged 19.44 fantasy points in seven games he ran 40-plus routes. In six games (excluding injuries) that he ran under 40 routes, he averaged 14.0 fantasy points.

Has Ja’Marr Chase relegated Tee Higgins to the 1B passing option in Cincinnati with Tyler Boyd as a target-stealing No. 3? Possibly. Chase more than doubled Higgins’ 48 (No. 58) Air Yards, while Chase’s 26.9-percent (No. 12) Target Share dwarfed Higgins’ 19.2-percent (No. 41). Against a lesser cornerback in Bashaud Breeland last week, Higgins secured a 10.0-percent (No. 73) Hog Rate. Joe Burrow will not force-feed targets to him if he can’t beat Jaylon Johnson (No. 20-ranked CB).