Fantasy Football

The will they-won’t they relationship between the Rams coaching staff and Cam Akers’ starting role has been the talk of the town for weeks. Akers’ Week 12 efficiency (9-84-1) dwarfed Darrell Henderson’s 19 yards on three carries and Malcolm Brown’s 19 scrimmage yards on five total touches. Project forward. Pray that McVay read the box score and plays his young stud as a workhorse in Week 13 against the Cardinals.

With high playoff upside, Tim Patrick remains a featured add in this column for two weeks straight. His schedule includes a potential Week 13 shootout with the Chiefs, Carolina’s soft secondary in Week 14, and another potential shootout in Week 16 against the Chargers. Patrick is a featured weapon with high upside when Drew Lock returns to the lineup.

Derrick Henry took advantage of a depleted Indy front to the tune of 178 yards and a trio of rushing scores. The absence of DeForest Buckner and Bobby Okereke was felt as Henry steamrolled in the first half, doing all but 48 yards of his damage before halftime. Henry remains arguably the highest-ceiling running back in fantasy, and all while contributing next to nothing in the passing game.

Justin Jefferson filled in seamlessly as the Vikings’ top receiver with Adam Thielen on the COVID list. He saw a season-high 13 targets, collecting seven for 70 yards and two scores. Olabisi Johnson actually led the team in receiving with 74 yards, but Jefferson will be a great play again next week whether or not Thielen is able to return against Jacksonville.

Cole Beasley is fantasy football’s WR24 and you didn’t even know it. Rostered in just over 51-percent of ESPN leagues, Beasley is the No. 2 receiver for QB6 Josh Allen. John Brown won’t play this week, and this Chargers-Bills implied point total is the third-highest as well. Don’t let Beasley rot on waivers! He’s coming off his best game, a 27.9-point performance against the Jets before the team’s Week 11 bye, but he’s also totaled at least 11.0 PPR fantasy points in all but three games.

With Todd Gurley ruled out for Week 12, Brian Hill faces the Raiders in a matchup with the second-highest implied point total of the week. Adding juice to the matchup is the fact the Raiders defense fields the worst Rush DVOA thus far and allows the fourth-most fantasy points to backs. If the inefficient Gurley, offering no receiving value, can average 13.9 (No. 18 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game while creating 137.9 (No. 11) Weighted Opportunities, Hill can’t be worse.

Injuries have slowed down stud wide receiver Julio Jones and he’s now fallen outside of the Top 40 on PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings. Sadly, Jones lost 13.01 Lifetime Value points to drop seven spots to WR44, making him the biggest WR faller on the rankings. Still capable of producing big weeks, Jones has become a boom or bust option this season. He has three top 12 fantasy WR performances, but also has three weeks outside of the Top 60.

Featured as a market riser back in Week 2, Diontae Johnson’s dynasty stock would have hit WR1 levels long ago if not for a few injury hiccups. Johnson earned a season high 16 targets in Week 11 and has seen over 10 targets in every game that he hasn’t been hampered by injury. Johnson gained 26.14 Lifetime Value points and moved up eight spots to WR18, making him the biggest riser on the dynasty rankings.

This year, Chase Edmonds is top-10 among qualified running backs in Breakaway Run Rate, Yards per Touch, and Production Premium. Because he is so efficient on a regular basis, Edmonds has been an RB2 in five of eight weeks that Kenyan Drake was active for and finished. If your league still allows trading, buy Edmonds as a volatile RB2 with top-five upside if Drake gets hurt again. If your league doesn’t, keep tabs on him in case his owner decided to cut him after more healthy games from Drake.

Jarvis Landry’s struggles have been two-fold. The first is that he simply has not been efficient in any way as evidenced by his -18.0-percent (No. 95) Target Premium and -16.1 (No. 71) Production Premium. The second is that his team is trying to play football like it’s the 1960s and is passing just 29.3 times per game, No. 32 in the NFL. Players need to be either efficient or pumped up with volume to succeed as fantasy assets. Landry is neither.

Gus Edwards is the next man up for Baltimore going into a Primetime Thanksgiving matchup. Both J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram will sit due to COVID regulations. Edwards has a high chance of being a one week workhorse on the short week with few options behind him and Justice Hill being relegated to special teams.

Nelson Agholor is the WR1 for Derek Carr. It feels wrong to say that, but it has become the truth. In his first season with the Raiders, he has scored six total touchdowns and is averaging 19.3 Yards Per Reception. Agholor is the epitome of a boom or bust receiver, but you can toss him in your Flex and pray for the boom if you are desperate.

Justin Jefferson has thrived as the clear second option in the lowest volume pass offense in the league. He’s the WR11 through 11 weeks. It’s a wild contradiction and he’s done it through explosive speed after the catch (his 280 YAC rank top-10 in the league) and capitalizing on Kirk Cousins’ Deep Ball Attempts (his 482 Completed Air Yards is also a top-10 mark). Oh, and he’s sporting league-bests with 14.1 Yards per Target and 3.20 Yards per Route Run.

Justin Herbert has been a complete surprise since picking up in Week 2, and he set a new career-high with 366 passing yards against the hopeless Jets on Sunday. Herbert has become an elite DFS play every week, regardless of matchup. The matchup against the Bills, fresh off a bye, has the second-highest total on the slate so far at 54 points, and we should stack this game every way we can think of.

At 15.6 (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game, Tee Higgins leads all rookie wide receivers. His 603 (No. 19) receiving yards place him second in receiving on the Bengals and second to Justin Jefferson in the rookie race. Over the last two games, Higgins has seen 18 targets, which is three more than Tyler Boyd and eight more than fading A.J. Green. With Green set to hit free agency in 2021, the Joe Burrow-Tee Higgins combination is an exciting one for dynasty owners.

Philadelphia’s sixth-round free agent sensation Travis Fulgham saw double digit targets from Weeks 5-7. In Week 10, Fulgham caught only one of his five targets for eight yards. Way to dampen the hype. He’s now seen his targets decrease in two consecutive games. During this time, Jalen Reagor, Dallas Goedert and Alshon Jeffery all returned to the lineup. Fulgham sees the biggest Lifetime Value drop for wide receivers, moving outside the Top 50 at the position.

At 6-4, 223-pounds, Michael Pittman has the prototypical size that the Indianapolis Colts lack in their receiver core. Combined with his 111.2 (93rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Speed Score and 10.24 (89th-percentile) Catch Radius, he is a red zone threat for Philip Rivers to target. Kevin King is Pittman’s primary coverage this week and he plays his first game since Week 4 due to a quad injury. King struggled before his injury, hence his low spot on the cornerback rankings.

The Patriots-Texans game has an O/U set at 49 points, and only three games on the slate have a higher projected total. On top of that, the Texans are a Vegas underdog playing at home in a dome. While Brandin Cooks has out-targeted Will Fuller in each of the last three games, it doesn’t matter. Expected to play from behind in a dome against weaker primary coverage means that Fuller is a wide receiver to start in a high-scoring game.

Michael Pittman broke out in Week 10 with 101 yards on seven receptions. His college profile indicates that he will keep breaking out all over the place and suggests he can be the focal point of the Colts passing attack. He posted an above-average College Dominator Rating and is a supreme athlete. His 112.1 SPARQ-x score is in the 73rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers. If there is a second-round pick to be buying on in Indianapolis, it’s Pittman.

Jerick McKinnon is outside the top-30 RBs in Juke Rate, Yards per Touch, True Yards per Carry, and most other important metrics. The 49ers have also shown a general reluctance to get him the ball frequently. When practice squad player Jeff Wilson was on the roster with McKinnon, Kyle Shanahan chose to split the work between them. With Raheem Mostert supposedly on track to return next week, McKinnon will likely continue to be efficient, but on less volume.