Fantasy Football

Breece Hall’s resume is as sparkling as one a college running back could create. His tape and production already made him a nearly indestructible running back. But him blowing up the Combine was the last piece to make him a bulletproof prospect. To make matters even better, won’t turn 21 until May 31st, more than a month after he hears his name called. He should be the first running back to hear his name called among his class both in the NFL Draft and in upcoming fantasy drafts.

Whoa! Well, hello there Christian Watson! He may not have lit the college football landscape on fire the way Breece Hall did. But, he did manage to accumulate a robust College Dominator Rating/College YPR combo. Watson blew up the Senior Bowl with his dynamic skillset and then did the same at the Combine with his otherworldly athleticism. Doing so solidified him as a likely Day 2 draft pick at the minimum and possibly a first-round pick in late April. When it comes to winners of the Combine and the draft season, perhaps no player did so as emphatically.

Snoop Conner is a big dude at around 5-10 and 220-pounds. But he did not play a big role as a college football player. His career best Dominator Rating was the 17.9-percent he posted last season. Only a 32nd-percentile mark among third-year college runners who would go on to be drafted since 2007.

Again we see Miles Sanders popping up in the comps list of a total JAG running back (he shows up a lot because he’s average and therefore is relatively comparable to lots of players in the meaty portion of the bad-to-good bell curve). Nick Chubb is the best player here and Conner is the busted ass version of him. He’s bad and you should feel bad if you like him. Turn the film off and touch some grass.

Welcome to the latest and greatest arena where fantasy football takes thrive or die. A place where fantasy football propositions can gain validity or be thrown by the wayside. This is the first installment of the Fantasy Football Shark Tank.

Despite Tony Pollard’s fantastic efficiency metrics and Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s lackluster production, the two backs’ fantasy values have yet to fully flip. D.J. Moore is a stud. He is a wildly talented wide receiver that is as close to QB proof as there is. Just like Pollard, Moore needs his situation to improve to fully reach his potential. But unlike Pollard, he is a stable dynasty asset regardless of his team making any improvements.

It’s not a good look that it took D’Vonte Price four years to break out at Florida International. When it did happen though, it was emphatic. His senior season 40.2-percent Dominator Rating is a 90th-percentile mark for fourth-year college runners. Albeit in a five game season on a team that went winless in Conference USA.

D’Vonte Price is neither a good receiver nor runner, and he also wasn’t an impressive college producer. There just isn’t much indication that he’ll be a quality NFL player. I’m not interested in dynasty rookie drafts.

After one full year of waiting, fantasy football’s greatest mock drafting rivalry has been renewed. It’s UNDERWORLD VS ROSTERWATCH 2 (Electric Boogaloo?) The best from both sites partake in a fierce, ongoing, totally-serious-with-no-room-for-cheeky-shenanigans series of fantasy football rookie mocks.

The only two players from Round 1 not ranked among PlayerProfiler’s top 12 rookies are David Bell and Jahan Dotson, taking the places of Jerome Ford and Brian Robinson, respectively. Though this sentiment technically goes against our rankings, it shows that you want to take your 2022 WRs early. An easy assessment from our end given the main pre-Combine focus of the Underworld admittedly being on the RB position. Noah Hills’ extensive research shows us that the 2022 NFL Draft is starved for backs with complete skillsets. It’s up to us to find players that represent the oasis in the middle of this proverbial desert.

North Carolina’s Ty Chandler spent most of his college career at Tennessee. There, he shared time with everyone from John Kelly to Eric Gray. When Javonte Williams and Michael Carter buoyed their success as Tar Heels into quality draft capital, Chandler saw it and said, “omg goals.”

Ty Chandler’s name is boring, his career was boring, and his skills are boring. Given all that, I’m sure there’s some keyboard hero out there preparing a Twitter thread to show off his pad level and contact balance as we speak. Ignore the information shared here: that is the analysis you want to hone in on. Ty Chandler for RB1.

The RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts, running through the spring and summer. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community, and our good friends over at The Breakout Finder. Today features 2022 Rookie Mock Recap #4, a Superflex format.

Bailey Zappe has the highest ceiling in this QB draft class. He threw for nearly 6,000 yards and 62 touchdowns last season. That is just absurd. Especially in SuperFlex, I see no argument as to why he isn’t at least worth a late-round flier. Sure he played for Western Kentucky. Sure he didn’t really impress at the Senior Bowl. But those two things are not disqualifying. Tim Tebow won a Heisman and, for all intents and purposes, didn’t produce at the NFL level. Zappe will be an interesting player to watch this year.

C.J. Verdell blew up early on in his college career. He went for over 1,000 rushing yards in each of his redshirt freshman and redshirt sophomore seasons. He missed some games while dealing with injuries as an upperclassman in 2020 and 2021. But his 28.8-percent per-game Dominator Rating as a redshirt senior last season was actually the highest of his career.

C.J. Verdell was a productive college player who was fraudulently propped up as a future NFL stud by over-eager devy enthusiasts. He’s probably a JAG. Hoping he becomes Jay Ajayi or Miles Sanders is misguided, given that those guys aren’t really that good either. A JAG with volume is good for fantasy, but it’s not very predictable (at least pre-draft). Look elsewhere in your rookie draft.

Oklahoma State’s Jaylen Warren is the next subject in a series in which I evaluate 2022 rookie running backs solely on their ability to run the ball. Where he really shined was in the open field. He turned an 81st-percentile rate of his chunk runs into breakaways of 20+ yards. His career 38.0-percent Breakaway Conversion Rate is on par with the college rates of guys like Kenny Gainwell, C.J. Spiller, and Joe Mixon.

Jaylen Warren simply deserves more hype. He’s by no means a perfect prospect. But he’s a rocked up dude at sub-5-9 and 215-pounds. He was productive at three different college programs. And he was as efficient a college runner as some of your favorite sleeper runners of the past few years. Seeing as he got a Combine invite, the NFL is at least tentatively interested. In the late rounds of your rookie draft, you should be too.

Fresno State’s Ronnie Rivers is the next subject in a series in which I evaluate 2022 rookie running backs solely on their ability to run the ball. According to my running back model’s composite Rushing Efficiency Score (which accounts for all the non-BAE metrics covered here, in addition to overall team quality, offensive line play, strength of opponent, and rushing volume), he earns a 44.9 out of 100.

A five-year contributor at Fresno State, Ronnie Rivers is neck-and-neck with Alabama’s Brian Robinson as perhaps the most super of all the seniors in this year’s running back class. He had a good career in a mediocre conference. But that resumé is a dime a dozen among NFL players. He is not worth a selection in rookie drafts, and is unlikely to ever be fantasy relevant.