North Carolina’s Ty Chandler is the next subject in a series in which I evaluate 2022 rookie running backs solely on their ability to run the ball. The Breakout Finder installments can be found here. The PlayerProfiler installments can be found here. If you happened to already catch those and don’t need a refresher on my methodology, feel free to skip to the player-focused analysis.
North Carolina’s Ty Chandler spent most of his college career at Tennessee. There, he shared time with everyone from John Kelly to Eric Gray. When Javonte Williams and Michael Carter buoyed their success as Tar Heels into quality draft capital, Chandler saw it and said, “omg goals.” A fifth-year senior and first-time player at Chapel Hill in 2021, he finally served as his team’s undisputed lead back. As a 210-pound guy with 73 career receptions, he might have three-down potential. Let’s see how his rushing efficiency numbers stack up.
With the 5.12, Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL) selects:
Ty Chandler, running back from North Carolina
That concludes the @rotounderworld vs. @RosterWatch 1QB Rookie Mock Draft! pic.twitter.com/zjlhVpwoDL
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) March 2, 2022
Considering he spent five years in college, Ty Chandler’s 603 career carries is a fairly modest number. On that workload, he averaged 0.40 yards per carry more than his teammates did. Doing so while breaking off 10-yard runs at a clip 1.45-percent greater than they did. Those marks land in the 45th and 58th-percentiles, respectively, among running backs drafted since 2007. All that was done relative to teammates who averaged a collective 2.83-star rating as high school recruits. Which gives them just 31st-percentile pedigree. Considering the volume he handled and the talent level of his backfield mates, we would expect a running back in Chandler’s position to post a YPC+ mark of 0.56, based on historical data. While he was more efficient than others on his team at 0.40 YPC+, he wasn’t as efficient as we would like to see from an NFL-quality running back.
He also had an easier path to his efficiency than did the other guys at Tennessee and UNC. He faced 0.17 fewer defenders in the box, on average, than his teammates did. That discrepancy is in the 8th-percentile. Considering those lighter fronts, the average Chandler carry was worth 113.4-percent the output of the average non-Chandler carry at his multiple schools, a Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating in the 43rd-percentile. His Relative Success Rate was similarly unimpressive. Given the box counts they each faced, he succeeded on just 0.1-percent more of his runs than his teammates. That number is just a 40th-percentile mark.
Chandler was also completely mediocre in the open field. The 30.6-percent of his total chunk gains converted into breakaway runs of 20+ yards lands in the 50th-percentile.
Rushing Efficiency Score and Comps
There is not much to point to in the numbers that would indicate that Ty Chandler is anything but a subpar rusher of the football in the context of 15+ years of draftable running backs. That un-remarkableness is reflected in Chandler’s numbers in my processes composite efficiency scores. In one that accounts for all the non-BAE metrics we’ve touched on here (in addition to overall team quality, offensive line play, and strength of opponent), he earns a 41.6 out of 100. He happens to earn the exact same mark in a composite that does account for the box count data. He is simply an uninspiring ballcarrier.
Using the same inputs as that first Rushing Efficiency Score, I am also able to generate similarity scores between current and past prospects in the “pure runner” category. I also take physical measurables into account here, so if we assume that he runs a 4.50 40-yard dash at 5-11 and 210-pounds, the following players are his closest comps as rushers:
When (if?) he is drafted, Chandler will join the ranks of some of the most prominent JAG running backs of the last five years; with Miles Sanders as the crown jewel of this uninspiring representation of his potential range of outcomes
Ty Chandler‘s name is boring, his career was boring, and his skills are boring. Given all that, I’m sure there’s some keyboard hero out there preparing a Twitter thread to show off his pad level and contact balance as we speak. Ignore the information shared here: that is the analysis you want to hone in on. Ty Chandler for RB1.