Fantasy Football

Mike Davis is clearly the RB1 in Atlanta, but Wayne Gallman should be treated as a high end handcuff with upside. Gallman flashed last season in New York, then signed into a crowded situation in San Francisco. When he was cut, he landed in an ideal spot. Is Davis really that much better than Gallman? I am not sure. If Davis goes down, Gallman would step into a high volume role with receiving work as well.

When Washington cut Peyton Barber, Jaret Paterson’s role was solidified. He is a deep league bench spot type player with upside. The UDFA put up gaudy numbers at Buffalo and now is the No. 3 RB to Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic. At 5-6 inches tall, Patterson is one of the shorter RBs in the NFL, but he showed rushing and receiving ability in the preseason. Ron Rivera compared him to Darren Sproles, and the Washington media has compared his abilities to Maurice Jones-Drew.

In a study by J.J. Zachariason, 54 running backs were drafted between Rounds 7 and 15 behind a top-12 running back from 2011-2017. Of those, 32 offered three or fewer top-24 finishes. This means a majority of the time you select a handcuff, you will have three or less useable weeks. That also includes games in which they score a random touchdown, or take over after a mid game injury when you would have left them on the bench.

Taking Alexander Mattison on a team with Ezekiel Elliott allows you the chance to stack hoards of receivers and an elite tight end, with the possibility of starting both Mattison and Elliott should Dalvin Cook get injured. That’s a team others cannot replicate or compete with. Drafting a handcuff to your own running back takes the possibility to benefit from chaos off the table. You can derive only benefit at your own expense.

Tyler Lockett is not your typical small slot receiver, even though he measures in at 5-10 and 182-pounds, since he has 28 receiving TDs over the past three seasons. Seattle looks like a team ready to throw the ball more frequently in 2021, and Russell Wilson is one of the best QBs in the entire sport. To finish as the WR1 in fantasy, a player needs the Target Share, the QB play, and touchdown variance, all of which Lockett has displayed in past seasons.

Are you ready for an A.J. Brown-level sophomore season from a true alpha prototype wide receiver? Like Brown, Bryan Edwards was the total package college prospect but somehow slipped out of Round 1. Like Brown, Edwards wins on the perimeter and inside. Like Brown, Edwards wins with air yards and YAC. Unlike Brown, Edwards only has a converted tight end who has yet to practice as his primary target competition. You have The Podfather’s permission to get excited.

If there’s one thing that’s certain heading into every NFL season, it’s this: Russell Wilson will be hyper efficient throwing touchdowns, and Tyler Lockett will catch a ton of them. Overall, Wilson and Lockett have a special connection when it comes to deep ball touchdowns. At Lockett’s price, managers can construct builds which can protect themselves from the bust weeks, while also being able to take advantage of the guaranteed wins the stack offers.

The argument that Najee Harris takes production away from a Ben Roethlisberger-Chase Claypool stack can be flipped on its head: by adding a talented running back, who’s to say that this offense doesn’t become more efficient, thus granting Claypool more opportunities to produce? We’ve seen direct evidence of this when Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Le’Veon Bell were all elite in 2017. As they say, a rising tide lifts all boats.

When pairing Elijah Moore’s athleticism with his draft capital and production, Tyler Lockett and Emmanuel Sanders are perfect players to look for his floor and ceiling. Moore has shown in college he can be a target hog. His junior season in 2020 saw him lead the FBS with 10.8 receptions and 149.1 receiving yards per game. His floor is fringe WR3 playing primarily outside and his ceiling is high-end WR2 as a PPR monster in the slot.

Size? Check. Early breakout? Check. Draft capital? Check. Terrace Marshall checks all of the boxes that we look for at PlayerProfiler. He has the widest range of outcomes in the 2021 wide receiver class. Is it unfathomable for another LSU receiver to force D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson to eventually take back seats? Marshall’s floor is WR4 and his ceiling is he becomes the captain and produces top-five fantasy seasons.

Darren Waller has shown he can produce with the very best tight ends, and receivers, in the NFL. His path to continued targets is clear, for this year and beyond. While his age is a concern, his recent breakout means his metaphorical tires have less tread than players younger than him. There’s little standing in the way of him producing as a top tight end for the foreseeable future.

There are reasons to think twice about spending a premium pick on George Kittle. An injury history for a player approaching age 30 can never be ignored, especially in dynasty formats. The 49ers other receiving options are much more talented than they were when Kittle first broke onto the scene. But the Tight End University founder’s superstar talent is undeniable. His statistical profile points to the same conclusion as the eye test. He is a special player who will be a top fantasy tight end for years to come.

The TE13 drafted by UnderDog ADP, Jonnu Smith finds himself in a good position to help both the Patriots and your Underdog squad in 2021. In a large field tournament such as Best Ball Mania II, spike weeks from lightly owned players are critical difference makers. Positive regression is in store for Smith though after Tennessee’s overcrowded offense was exchanged for one desperate for playmakers. 

Forecasting talent to overtake mediocrity paid dividends for Justin Herbert drafters last season. An intriguing rookie prospect behind an uninspiring incumbent and with whom high draft capital was invested this season is Trey Lance. If he can make eight-plus starts, he’s a strong play given his playmaking ability and could absolutely smash his ADP. It’s only a matter of time before we see the athletic rookie under center and someone who took advantage sees $1,0001 in their Underdog balance. 

If you are light at WR or want to add a player who could make a big impact to start this season, then Marquez Callaway is it. The second-year UDFA from the University of Tennessee looks to be the WR to roster in New Orleans. He has shown unreal preseason production, dominating first and second-team defenders. With Jameis Winston being named starter and Michael Thomas’ timeline for a return being murky, he could get off to a fast start and be one of this year’s breakout WRs.

Ty’Son Williams was a practice squad player for Baltimore in 2020, but has looked very strong running the ball this preseason. He has good size at 220-pounds, and seems like a player who could take on a large rushing share if Gus Edwards were to go down. This is an optimistic projection. Justice Hill is still around and could very much be in the mix, but I will bet on Williams. He is worth a FAAB bid.

The disrespect with D.J. Moore’s talent and production hurts my feelings. In 2019 and 2020, Moore showed the ability to run deep and intermediate routes and still produce. As WR23 in the World Famous Draft Kit rankings, he boasts the opportunity and ability to produce WR1 type numbers. Overall, he looks like a receiver in the early rounds that can provide WR1 type production, and it’s reasonable for him to take the leap in 2021.

Why draft Mecole Hardman at pick 85.9 as WR41 when you can draft K.J. Hamler as one of your last-round picks? Hamler’s Best Comparable Player being DeSean Jackson fits the speedster profile. He possesses similar skills and almost identical upside as Hardman, yet goes near 100 picks later. Use the drafting backward strategy to scour the player pool and prioritize Hamler as one of your final-round picks

Round 5 represents the lowest ADP for Odell Beckham since his rookie season. Fantasy players should have some trepidation, but the risk is baked in when he is drafted at this part of the draft. The talent and athleticism and ability to absolutely dominate a game are still there. He is the clear cut No. 1 target in Cleveland and could be lethal in their play action passing game. A vintage OBJ season is in play for 2021.

Sony Michel’s ADP has risen steadily since he was traded to the Rams, but there’s no world in which he should still be selected over 80 spots on average after Darrell Henderson. The Rams have never trusted Henderson in a lead back role, and Michel has been better than people think. Even if they split work relatively evenly, you can take advantage of what is shaping up to be one of the year’s biggest value plays if his ADP continues to rest in the double digit rounds.