Fantasy Football

The RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts, running through the spring and summer. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community, and our good friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the festivities and adding their own unique perspectives.

The fifth round this year looks to compete with the beasts of 2021, Chris Evans, Khalil Herbert, Ihmir Smith-Marsette, and Noah Gray to name a few. Can Kennedy Brooks, Abram Smith, Jeremy Ruckert, and Cole Turner take that leap – it remands to be seen. But one thing is for certain… We will continue to bring you actionable content daily at PlayerProfiler.com and BreakoutFinder.com through the NFL Combine, Pro-Days and the NFL Draft. Follow along on Twitter, YouTube, TikTok and everywhere else as we break down every 40-yard dash, every pro-day, and every draft pick in 2022.

The game will come down to how the offensive line can handle the pressure against Aaron Donald and Von Miller. Burrow only managed a 47.1-percent (No. 14) Pressured Completion Percentage. And for the Bengals to win, he will need to make big throws under pressure. On the other side of the coin, he ranks No. 1 in Clean Pocket Completion Percentage. He is also No. 1 with 8.8 Yards per Pass Attempt, But it helps if you’ve got talented teammates.

Now in Los Angeles, Matthew Stafford is surrounded by easily his best coaching staff and teammates. And it’s reflected in the metrics. His Touchdown Rate ranks No. 2 among quarterbacks with ten or more starts. And his 63.5 (No. 4) Total QBR puts him ahead of Patrick Mahomes. He also gets the benefit of throwing to outstanding pass catchers.

Mississippi Rebel Jerrion Ealy is a fun eval. Dude came into college as a 5-star recruit in football AND one of the top baseball prospects in the country. He spent three years catching a lot of passes and breaking a lot of tackles. While his production profile is underwhelming, his play-to-play ability is evident in his per touch efficiency metrics.

Jerrion Ealy is a far better receiver coming out of college than most of these guys were as prospects. He should have an easier time finding an NFL role than someone like Jaret Patterson. However, if the best player on your comps list is Darren Sproles, you probably won’t be fantasy-relevant. Ealy simply must be bigger come the Combine. With a prospect profile that doesn’t even stand out within his archetype, he’s not the droid you’re looking for.

It has become apparent that landing spot takes are not a very effective measurement of opportunity. Sure, landing spots or new coaches can smell like fantasy gold, but there are better advanced metrics that offer a closer look at who is really getting golden opportunities for your fantasy roster. Let’s find some 2022 breakout wide receivers using one of the ultimate tools of opportunity: Hog Rate.

Hog Rate alone can’t solely predict a breakout. It can certainly point you in the direction of wide receivers who have their offense’s attention while on the field. Which means more opportunities to produce fantasy points. It is no coincidence that these elite-tier guys have significant Hog Rates. So as you start drafting for 2022 and looking at trade targets, don’t forget these three names.

Gabriel Davis has been a deeper threat in his career, ranking top-12 among WRs in Average Target Distance and Yards Per Reception both of his seasons in the NFL. He has also seen large red zone usage, ranking top-30 in Red Zone Targets both his seasons with 13 career touchdowns, more than Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox the last two seasons. Davis is efficient in several advanced metrics, apart from Catch Rate and Drop Rate, both of which he ranked outside the top-75 in this season.

Ultimately, Davis is an efficient receiver who garners large chunks of yardage and touchdown opportunity when he sees the ball. However, he has not received enough opportunity to see if he can be consistent as a weekly starter. His profile and ability as a more “chunk play” receiver contributes to his lesser opportunity, as he is seldom seen as a do-it-all guy like Stefon Diggs.

Today, we’ll look at the AFC championship matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals, a rematch from Week 17 where Cincinnati scored in the last moments of the game and won 34-31. A key result of that victory, the Bengals won their first division title since 2009.

Once a young team with plenty of promise, the Bengals have given life to a franchise that had embodied mediocrity. Now they are four quarters away from the Super Bowl. I expect the Bengals to come out playing fast and pushing the tempo on offense; unfortunately for them, the offensive line may have trouble keeping the pace with its skill positions. Kansas City wins 35-27.

The more I read and research between these two teams, it seems the more in common the are with one another. The gunslinger quarterback, the alpha wide receiver, the efficient tight end, and even the opportunistic defense the schemes many different ways to find advantages on the field.

Both teams are peaking, playing strong, and lest we forget, last year the Chiefs beat the Bills 38-24 in the AFC championship. Do yourself a favor; sit back and enjoy two superior teams scheme against each other in a Divisional tilt that has the potential to be a classic showdown.

It’s Wildcard Weekend in the NFL, and this matchup has my nostalgia cranked up all the way with these two storied franchises.  It hasn’t always been pretty for both of these teams since the mid-90’s, but thankfully we have two talent rich squads with incredible athletes performing at the absolute highest level.

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s stock continues to trend up. The rookie saved his best performance for last, delivering a career high eight receptions for 111 yards and a TD in Week 17. He finished last Sunday with 35.4 fantasy points (WR2) to go along with three WR6 finishes since Week 13. In 16 games, St. Brown has posted 82 receptions for 803 yards and five touchdowns. He sits fourth in receiving yards for rookie WRs. St. Brown gains another 35.47 Lifetime Value points and 17 spots to climb to WR27.

In his self-proclaimed final regular season game at Heinz field, Ben Roethlisberger threw 46 times for 123 yards and one touchdown. For fantasy purposes, Roethlisberger has totalled just 27.1 fantasy points over the last three games. On the season, Roethlisberger has produced 14.4 (No. 22) Fantasy Points per Game with only three QB1 performances – eight weeks finishing outside the Top 20. With retirement looming, the 18-year Steeler drops 10 spots in the dynasty rankings to QB43.

No longer tethered to Jared Goff, we see the blossoming of a star receiver with Cooper Kupp. He’s always been a weapon for the Rams, but with Matthew Stafford calling the shots, he’s unleashed on the NFL and boy has it been a joy to watch. The Rams also have valuable weapons Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham, making a case for the most talented trio of wide receivers for any team. They will surely make plays, but Kupp is who Stafford looks to, and there’s no reason why he should stop.

The Jimmy Garoppolo injury opened the door for Trey Lance to start. After a slow start against Houston, he finished with 249 passing yards, 31 rushing yards, and two passing touchdowns. The rookie quarterback numbers from the 2021 NFL Draft have been a mixed bag, so it was refreshing to see him play competently. If Garoppolo can put in a limited or full practice on Friday, and with a playoff appearance on the line, the team may prefer the established veteran to start.