Fantasy Football

With Trey Sermon inactive and Raheem Mostert suffering a knee injury, Elijah Mitchell saw an 82.6-percent Opportunity Share. He produced a True Yards Per Carry Rate of 4.9 (No. 13 among qualified RBs) with 7 (No. 4) Evaded Tackles and a 36.8-percent (No. 5) Juke Rate. It’s fully expected that the 49ers will involve multiple RBs. However, Mitchell is the elite athlete of the group on a team that’s likely to face plenty of positive Game Script.

Those who tuned into NFL Top-10 (plus) Takeaways already know that The Podfather is worried about Tua Tagovailoa. Miami inched by the Patriots 17-16, but Tua was anything but sharp. Looking past the box score we find 4 (No. 3) Danger Plays and 4 (No. 4) Interceptable Passes. Tagovailoa had an abysmal 37.3 (No. 31) True Passer Rating and a 7.0 (No. 24) Accuracy Rating. He loses 10.23 Lifetime Value points and lands outside of the Top 20 QBs in our dynasty rankings.

Diontae Johnson was a top-10 WR in Week 1 in Target Share (31.3-percent), Hog Rate (25.0-percent), and Target Rate (37.0-percent). However, Johnson will face stiff coverage from Casey Hayward (No. 17-ranked CB) in a game that the Steelers are projected to handle with ease. Volume is key to fantasy points scored. In 2020, Johnson averaged 19.44 fantasy points in seven games he ran 40-plus routes. In six games (excluding injuries) that he ran under 40 routes, he averaged 14.0 fantasy points.

Has Ja’Marr Chase relegated Tee Higgins to the 1B passing option in Cincinnati with Tyler Boyd as a target-stealing No. 3? Possibly. Chase more than doubled Higgins’ 48 (No. 58) Air Yards, while Chase’s 26.9-percent (No. 12) Target Share dwarfed Higgins’ 19.2-percent (No. 41). Against a lesser cornerback in Bashaud Breeland last week, Higgins secured a 10.0-percent (No. 73) Hog Rate. Joe Burrow will not force-feed targets to him if he can’t beat Jaylon Johnson (No. 20-ranked CB).

If you put up 73 receptions, 1,008 yards, and 8 touchdowns at the age of 22, you’re a good football player, end of discussion. Last year, Chark played with Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon, and Jake Luton; with a generational quarterback in Trevor Lawrence entering the fold, I simply couldn’t see how Chark could be faded. If Chark continues to be the number one option and get those valuable, deep targets while the Jaguars play from behind, I can envision him finishing as a mid-high end WR2.

Week 1 confirmed exactly what I wanted to see out of Darrell Henderson, although I don’t expect him to continue to get a 96.0-percent Snap Share and 94.4-percent Opportunity Share. While Sony Michel will take on a larger role in the offense going forward, Henderson can easily see 13.5 carries and 3.5 targets per game which translates to 230 carries and 60 targets. While McVay seems to be worried about Henderson holding up for a whole season, in the case that he does, Henderson could finish as an RB1 given the offense’s ability to run the table and the defense keeping them in positive Game Scripts.

Antonio Gibson is my personal favorite dark horse to surpass Christian McCaffrey as THE top running back in fantasy football this year. The offseason reports of the Football Team running their offense through Gibson seemed to be true. In Week 1, he saw an 83.3-percent Opportunity Share, which is a bell-cow workload. If Gibson is able to cut down on his fumbles, his defense will give him good field position and Game Scripts, with a backup quarterback in Taylor Heinicke who will feed him check downs. He will have a real shot at the RB1 title.

D’Andre Swift blew us away with his involvement in the passing game. Jamaal Williams took probably a little bit more of what we’d like of his opportunity, but it didn’t matter. We know the Lions will have bad Game Scripts, which equals less rushing opportunities. Swift laughs at rushing opportunity because he will gladly feast on more receiving opportunity. He ran routes on 63-percent of passing plays and saw 11 targets in Week 1. If this pattern continues all season long, we are looking at a PPR superstar and dark horse RB1.

Behind Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, TE Jared Cook is in line for a big game. Cook ranks 97th-percentile among qualified tight ends or higher in Speed Score, Burst Score, and Catch Radius, with a 99th-percentile arm length. He has a streak of four straight seasons with 500-plus receiving yards and caught 5 passes for 56 yards week 1. The Cowboys allowed 379 passing yards to the Buccaneers and the secondary did not look great. Cook is in for a great game this week as the Chargers’ third option in the passing game.

The Atlanta Falcons are going up against the defending Super Bowl champs in Week 2. While you may expect offense in this game, avoid Mike Davis. He measures at 5-9, with a 96.1 (48th-percentile) Speed Score. He has also averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in just one season in his career. The Tampa Bay defensive line is imposing, led by 6-4, 347-pound Vita Vea. They held Ezekiel Elliott to just 3.0 yards per carry in Week 1.

This week’s top waiver wire addition is Elijah Mitchell. The sixth-round draft pick possesses top notch athleticism and was a mega producer in college. Raheem Mostert went down with injury and Mitchell carried the ball 19 times for 105 yards and a TD. Fantasy managers continue to be Shanahan’d and we cannot guarantee Mitchell will be the man moving forward, but there is a chance that he sticks as the lead back moving forward in what should be a very good San Francisco offense. I recommend an aggressive FAAB bid.

When Cardinals are available, go and get them. The offense is explosive, and Kyler Murray looks like the potential QB1 overall. Christian Kirk played over 50-percent of the snaps and hauled in all five of his targets. He found the end zone two times, and Arizona steamrolled Tennessee on the road. A.J. Green looked very dusty. I am hopeful that Kirk and Rondale Moore can increase their targets, and that Green can be phased out. The market could have been a year too early on Kirk, who may finally put it all together in 2021.

Join me this season for a weekly in-depth look at how we at the Enterprise are faring in this, the largest fantasy football tournament in the history of existence. And by in-depth, I mean as in-depth as I feel/am able to. Given my responsibilities as EDITOR IN CHIEF of both PlayerProfiler and The Breakout Finder, you get what you get.

Since I’m fairly certain Ty Johnson is the most-rostered player among this Underworld and Friends grouping (at least that’s what I’d put my money on), it will make the victory lap that much sweeter once everyone discovers that he is, in fact, the truth.

The start of a new NFL season means the return of the weekly WR-CB Matchups article! This season my goal is to bring attention to receivers available in most leagues that can provide FLEX starts to fantasy teams. Also, I want to identify receivers that shouldn’t start despite starting in a vast majority of leagues. My START recommendations are ideal for FLEX spots in 1QB-2RB-2WR-1TE-1FLEX leagues. My SIT recommendations are ideal if there is an alternate candidate to play over the receiver.

Since 2019, Russell Gage has exceeded 70-percent Snap Share in 12 games. In those games, he has scored 12.8 PPG or more nine times. Last season, the Rams went 3-0 in home games where they were at least 5-point favorites. Robert Woods averaged less than 10.0 fantasy points per game in each game. Meanwhile, Parris Campbell’s Hog Rate has exceeded 13-percent in both of his NFL seasons, and his Target Rate hasn’t dipped below 26-percent in a season.

The majority of teams either miscalculated the value of the top players or held onto money for too long.  I was foolish to sit and watch Dadoggin1 snatch up Ezekiel Elliott for 72.9-percent of the projected RB1 value. Learn from my mistake by recognizing and attacking value when it presents itself. Studs and Studs is the best strategy to win in this environment. Yes, Studs and Studs. It is conceivable to build an entire starting roster with two RB1s, three WR1s, the TE1 and a WR1 in the flex. Scary.

A flexible, water-like strategy is the best way to handle auction drafts. Do not try to force a preconceived plan into the draft, but instead, understand the value as it presents itself and adapt to new information. If the room is afraid to spend money, then build a team of superstars. If premium players are flying off the board at astronomical prices, then let the high-upside WR2 and RB2 fall into your lap. Be water, my friend.

The Panthers boast D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrace Marshall at WR. Moore and Anderson finished top 30 among qualified wide receivers in Fantasy Points Per Game last season and possess Speed and Burst Scores in the 75th-percentile or higher. Marshall has an alpha build and will face the Jets’ third corner. All in all, the Panthers receivers are set to feast in Week 1, and they may even be able to help Sam Darnold to fantasy relevance as well.

The Los Angeles Rams boast a top-tier defense headed by Aaron Donald. The Bears, meanwhile, are still (as of this writing) rolling out Andy Dalton week 1 behind a shaky offensive line that lost rookie tackle Teven Jenkins. While David Montgomery surged at the back half of last season, he won’t be set up for success with Dalton and an iffy o-line against Donald and company.