DFS

85.5 Receiving Yards is steep, but the 54.5 Over/Under suggests that there will be plenty of chances for Keenan Allen to rack up receiving yards. Allen has amassed 21 Targets (No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) and 239 Air Yards (No. 10), so he will have ample opportunity to compile yards against the Chiefs who have allowed the second most yards to offenses through Week 2.

The Law of the Conservation of Targets dictates that Kyle Pitts will see increased target volume with the absence of Russell Gage. Already, Pitts has seen an impressive 18.4-percent (No. 6) Target Share and the loss of Gage will do nothing but improve this volume. It’s hard to imagine Frank Darby or Tajae Sharpe siphoning targets from Pitts, which is why I’m confidently taking the OVER in a game with a decent over/under at 46.5.

Last week’s late-swap oriented strategy went belly up. But I think there is a case to go back to the well if the Dalvin Cook situation comes down to the wire. With only two strong game environments in the late window, many will steer clear of the Vikings backfield if we don’t have any clarity when people finalize their lineups. If this occurs, we can expect Cook or Alexander Mattison to be among the best projected plays on the slate and under-owned. Giving yourself the ability to take advantage either way is profiting from uncertainty.

It is fascinating to see which usage trends the market buys into and which they are selling after two weeks. Robert Woods has fallen behind Cooper Kupp in the Rams pecking order thus far, but his Week 2 usage was actually strong in a vacuum. He is now $1100 cheaper than Kupp, and projected for nearly half the ownership. Meanwhile, for Los Angeles’ other franchise, Mike Williams has looked every bit a co-alpha alongside Keenan Allen. Draftkings has responded, with only a $200 gap in salary. Nonetheless, ownership is projected to remain much heavier on Allen.

The matchup with Minnesota looks better for Russell Wilson at first glance. However, he has only scored 1.5 more points per game on DraftKings than Kirk Cousins. Now you have two quarterbacks more evenly matched. However, the pricing is not. Although Wilson might slightly have the edge in expected points score, the pricing is not. By pivoting down to Cousins you save $1,300, which is the difference between Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins or Christian Kirk: Massive. This makes Cousins an ideal quarterback for the DFS Week 3 matchups.

The Buccaneers/Rams may mirror the Cowboys/Chargers game from Week 2. Significant assumed point total, two underrated defenses, and two brilliant systems on both sides of the ball. However, I’m still attacking this game. From what we have seen so far, both secondaries seem to be the weaknesses of these teams. Carlton Davis and Jalen Ramsey are the only players who you don’t want to attack for this game in these DFS Week 3 matchups. However, predicting their roles in these games is difficult. 

Courtland Sutton exploded in Week 2, posting nine receptions for a 159 yards and finishing as the WR4 on the week. He saw 261 Air Yards, which is more than five times the amount he saw in Week 1 with Jerry Jeudy on the verge of a breakout. With Jeudy out of the lineup for the foreseeable future, Sutton is locked in as the Broncos go-to alpha receiver. At $6,00,0 he should be locked into cash lineups. However, with the Broncos and Jets unlikely to shoot out, he is best left out of your tournament lineups.

Emmanuel Sanders continued to have problems connecting with Josh Allen in Week 2, catching two of his six targets for 48 scoreless yards. Regardless, Sanders remains the downfield target of choice for Allen, remaining behind only Stefon Diggs in Air Yards on the Bills. He has a tough matchup against a Washington secondary, and for that reason, he is best suited as a tournament dart-throw this week. 

From the set of highest total games this week, Tom Brady makes the most sense as the QB for tournament lineups. He’s going against the “scariest” defense of the bunch and has virtually no rushing upside (half yard QB sneak TDs aside). As a result, he shouldn’t see a massive roster percentage. This week, our recommended pairing is Chris Godwin. He’s cheaper than Mike Evans while having a more consistent role in both games. He’s being featured in the slot (68 Slot Snaps ranks No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) and the red zone (his 5 Red Zone Targets rank No. 1) en route to 19 targets so far (No. 11).

Daniel Jones gives us all the ingredients we seek for tournament QBs. On top of all of that, he’s top three in QB carries and rushing yards so far. All that together has resulted in a top five fantasy QB this year. He gets the friendly Atlanta Falcons defense this week fresh off surrendering massive days to Jalen Hurts and Tom Brady. Sterling Shepard has seized the alpha role in New York. He leads the league in receptions with 16. He’s doing his damage out of the slot (his 75 Slot Snaps ranks No. 3) and near the line of scrimmage (his 9.4 Average Target Distance ranks No. 52).

The Panthers are hot. The team hasn’t trailed for a single snap, Sam Darnold is on pace to set career highs in True Passer Rating and True Completion Percentage, D.J. Moore has been a low-end WR2, and Christian McCaffrey has been as elite as he’s ever been. Given this matchup, deep threat Robby Anderson could be in for a huge night.

The Texans are not. Rookie Davis Mills steps in for Tyrod Taylor, which is a massive downgrade. Brandin Cooks has been the shining star thus far, dominating target and air yards shares. The Texans need a miracle to win, and Cooks is the only reliable fantasy option on this team.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Jonathan Taylor increased his per-game average of carries inside the 10-yard line with five in Week 2 after having three in Week 1. He is No. 1 in carries inside the 10-yard line. The worry this week isn’t Taylor himself, but rather Carson Wentz, who sprained both ankles and seems unlikely to play in Week 3. With having a backup quarterback starting, will that hurt Taylor’s opportunity? On the flip-side, Tennessee is No. 13 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 106.5. He is definitely someone I will roster this week if I am playing multiple lineups.

Week 2’s MNF game pits division rival Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers against one another. Both teams will look to avoid an 0-2 start to their season. Will the Lions shock public and win in Lambeau? Or should Packers fans R-E-L-A-X and know that their team will get back on course?

Divisional games are not my favorite types of games to bet on. Why? Because these teams are better prepared to play each other than they would be against teams they see less frequently. Detroit is a trap. Ask anyone that took the 49ers’ spread last week.

As mentioned in Volume II of The Pareto Principals, this week’s lineups need to be constructed around whether this Cowboys-Chargers game will be the focus. A high projected point total, a top-10 Pace of Play after one week, and all of his pass-catchers enjoying favorable matchups makes Justin Herbert a worthwhile focal point in Week 2 lineups. Especially with more projected points than Dak Prescott at $100 cheaper on DraftKings.

Given the allure of sexier on-paper matchups, this Buffalo-Miami game represents an interesting pivot point for Week 2 DFS tournaments. And with both Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders locking up with top-15 cornerbacks, the stage is set for a vintage two-score Cole Beasley performance as he goes up against No. 47-ranked Nik Needham. At $4,600, he’s another potential naked, salary-saving play.

After missing the majority of the preseason with a hand injury, D.J. Chark appeared to be the Jaguars primary passing target in Week 1, seeing 12 targets. Unfortunately, he caught three of these targets for 86 receiving yards, leaving most of his Air Yards unrealized. As Chark and rookie Trevor Lawrence are likely working through some chemistry issues, Chark remains a intriguing DFS play as he is only $100 in price away from making the value list.

Anthony Schwartz split snaps with Donovan Peoples-Jones in his rookie debut, but the burner rookie out scored Peoples-Jones, amassing 11.6 fantasy points. Schwartz and his 4.32 Pro Day-adjusted 40-Yard Dash time, was the clear downfield downfield threat for the Browns last week posting a 25.2 Average Target Distance. With Odell Beckham out again this week, and Cleveland set to square off against an exploitable Houston Texans secondary, Schwartz makes for an ideal cost saving play in tournaments.