DFS

Since relieving the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinicke has been a fantasy revelation. He’s finished as a top 12 QB  in each of his three starts. Yet despite this, DraftKings won’t budge on his sub $6k price. Heinicke is cheap and has been productive through the air and on the ground. By pairing him with his favorite target, you can expect a solid target floor with plenty of ceiling, as we saw last week. With McLaurin’s bump in price, he also becomes an intriguing leverage point off some more popular WRs in the same price range (D.J. Moore and Deebo Samuel in particular).

Tampa’s league-leading 3.14 Pace of Play fuels all of their volume and allows Tom Brady to keep playing at a high level. This week, they have one of the highest implied team totals, and have shown a willingness to continue throwing both near the goal line and when leading in games. We’re paying up for the more expensive of the lead WRs with Mike Evans. Between Evans and Chris Godwin, we’re making a play for ceiling given their respective roles.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

This is a strange week for running backs with many of the top running backs, not on the Sunday main slate. D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, and Mark Ingram are players to have in the player pool for tournaments provided they are active and healthy. Swift and Harris can be used in cash lineups due to limited options at running back on the main slate.

After last week’s dud performance, Brandin Cooks is now $300 cheaper on DraftKings, but still number one on the Air Yards Value List. As THE passing game on a poor Texans offense, last week’s five-reception, 47-yard scoreless performance can be expected on occasion. However, he still saw 83 Air Yards on a day where Davis Mills threw only 191 Air Yards. While J.C. Jackson, and the Patriots secondary presents another tough matchup, he should be confidently inserted into lineups across all formats again this week.

Courtland Sutton leads the league with 10 Deep Targets, and is currently seeing a 17.7 (No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance. He also is near the league lead in Unrealized Air Yards. Regardless of whether Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock is throwing him the ball this week, he should be a lock for tournament lineups. He makes for a perfect contrarian play facing off against the Steelers defense.

Jaylen Waddle is primed to deliver free money for those willing to take the Over 49.5 receiving yards line on Underdog Fantasy. Waddle’s Target Share has risen dramatically since Jacoby Brissett became the starting QB in Week 3.

Noah Fant will bounce back when he matches up against a Baltimore team that has allowed the most receiving yards to TE’s through Week 3. Targets will funnel to Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton because the Broncos are without another WR, after K.J. Hamler tore his ACL last week against the Jets.

For GPP tournaments with heavily weighted payout structures, it’s not enough to find high scoring players. You need to find points where others aren’t getting them. Where some fantasy gamers have moved off pre-season favorites who have underwhelmed, we see an opportunity for contrarian upside. We stack lowly rostered teams because that gives us the chance to find leverage and score where others aren’t.

In a week where it’s tempting to extrapolate the first few games of the season, it’s important to cut through the noise when building your daily fantasy football lineups. We expect a pass heavy game plan for the Cowboys this week which means a Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper stack are in play. We also look at why the advanced stats say to stick with Stefon Diggs even as his price holds steady.

Through a three week sample we can definitively say Cooper Kupp is ahead of Robert Woods. It would take a role swap in the opposite direction to even things out moving forward. However, like a falling knife, the gap between Woods and Kupp in price and ownership widens at an even faster rate than the gap in projection. With $2,500 between them, I am inclined to play Mr. Woods in more lineups once again, but I will make room for Kupp.

Derrick Henry chalk week is upon us. With both lead Titans receivers declared out, Henry is set to expand his already expanded pass game role. You can play Henry by all means, but if you want leverage off him, my favourite play is Anthony Firkser. The artist known as Firk-a-Licious is healthy this week, and at just $3,100, could viably lead the team in targets. He also plays more in passing situations so he’s a direct bet against Henry’s preferred script.

You should take shots with both Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray in your lineups. With the injury to DeAndre Hopkins, Murray had his worst game of the season but was still able to accumulate 22.54 points. He could again rely more on his legs in a competitive contest against the Rans. The Cardinals let Kirk Cousins ring up three touchdowns on only 32 passes in Week 2. Assuming the Rams will have to pass, Stafford with three touchdowns will pay off his cost. So the issue becomes: is there upside? 

Jalen Hurts was set up to fail in Week 3, and if the Eagles have any chance of beating the Chiefs, they have to get him in better third down situations by running the ball on first and second with a running back. As for the Chiefs side, Patrick Mahomes should have no problem picking apart this defense. My hesitancy comes in whether or not the Eagles can keep this competitive. In addition, can the Eagles get pressure on Mahomes who has a 36.8-percent (No. 26 among qualified quarterbacks) Pressured Completion Percentage and has suffered from a 31.3-percent (No. 25) Deep Ball Completion Percentage?

After burning countless parlays in back to back weeks, the Chiefs look to get right this week with a visit to Philadelphia. Patrick Mahomes has yet to pay off his exorbitant price tag in recent weeks despite throwing for at least three passing touchdowns in each start. Mahomes’ 8.0-percent Touchdown Rate, 313 Passing Yards Per Game and nine passing touchdowns all rank top five at the position. Jalen Hurts should also do enough to keep the game competitive.

Alvin Kamara is always in play. His 77.6-percent (No. 6) Opportunity Share and 23.0-percent (No. 1) Target Share are elite. His opponent this week, the Giants, have allowed the second most receiving yards to running backs this season. You need some Kamara exposure.

There are three certain things in life: death, taxes, and Brandin Cooks being undervalued in fantasy football. Cooks is THE passing game for the Texans amassing a league leading 57.8-percent Air Yards Share. It doesn’t matter if it is Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills throwing him the football, Cooks is seeing the volume to confidently be deployed in all DFS formats. He is currently the WR6 on the season but only priced as 16th highest receiver on DraftKings.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling finally boomed in week three finishing as a top 24 WR on the week after hauling in three receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown. He may have had a bigger week if he was not forced to leave the game with a hamstring injury. Unfortunately, Valdes-Scantling’s hamstring has sidelined him at practice thus far this week. Assuming he is able to go on Sunday he should still be considered a boom bust DFS option as the hamstring may hobble him

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Ezekiel Elliott had a bounce-back after the fantasy community was ready to write him off for Tony Pollard. Suddenly, he is No. 8 in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line per game, yet less expensive than other options such as Aaron Jones and Nick Chubb, players that are averaging close to what Elliott is now averaging inside the 10-yard line. This week against Carolina, Elliott is a player to have in your pool for tournaments for touchdown upside, but is not the safest play for cash games.