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The Bucs tend to pressure opposing teams into passing by running up the score. Since opposing offenses have mostly abandoned the run, the Bucs are allowing a league-high 71-percent Pass Percentage. They also allow a 75-percent (No. 3) Passing TD Percentage. Matt Ryan himself is inexpensive ($5,600) and his counterparts are as well (Kyle Pitts at $5,600 and Russell Gage at $5,300). Paying down for Ryan gives you a great way to approach the game ranked No. 3 in Pace of Play.

With Darren Waller listed doubtful with a variety of injuries, the public will be drawn to Foster Moreau. A leverage play tight-end from the same game is the Football Team’s Logan Thomas. In games he’s started, he averages an elite 20.9-percent Air Yards Share (31.3-percent in Week 12). He makes a great low-rostered pairing with Taylor Heinicke with the Raiders having been had by opposing tight ends, ranking No. 5 in aFPA.

On the year, Jaylen Waddle has 105 (No. 7 among qualified wide receivers) targets, which leads all rookie wideouts. His 15.1 Fantasy Points per Game trails only Ja’Marr Chase in terms of rookie WR production. Overall, Waddle is the WR19 on a points per game basis. Establishing himself as Miami’s alpha receiver, Waddle has scored double digit fantasy points in six of the last seven games. His dynasty stock gains 18.28 Lifetime Value points to join the Top 20 WRs in dynasty (WR19).

Terrace Marshall was a healthy scratch versus the Dolphins in Week 12 – 2021 sixth round wideout Shi Smith was active. While Marshall hasn’t been productive in his rookie season, this is not the news that dynasty managers were hoping for from the Panthers’ second round selection. The former LSU Tiger has averaged a mere 3.1 (No. 117) Fantasy Points per Game. His dynasty stock loses 16.59 Lifetime Value points and six spots to drop to WR44.

The Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals last played in the season opener of 2020. it was a lackluster 16-13 game. This was Joe Burrow’s debut. Meanwhile Justin Herbert hadn’t yet gotten the opportunity to lead the Chargers onto the field. Both teams have clearly improved since this game. We also get two of the top fantasy running backs in the league this year with Joe Mixon (No. 3) and Austin Ekeler (No. 2) in fantasy points.

I lean the Bengals here in what should be a closely contested game. In a close game, an advantage the Bengals have is special teams. The Chargers rank dead last in PFF Special Teams Grade, while the Bengals have a 91.2 (No. 2) Grade. I like Joe Mixon to get going early and often and continue his ascent into the elite tier of fantasy running backs. A strong running game can put a bit of a damper on a shootout, but I still think a decent amount of points are scored in this one.

Pick your poison. Chargers-Bengals is the highest scoring game on the slate with two defenses susceptible to the running back in different ways: one on the ground, one in the air. Both running backs have the opposite team’s kryptonite. Austin Ekeler has been on fire, accumulating 14.22 points in the air over the last five games and 17.9 over the previous three. As for Joe Mixon, he is the third-highest scoring running back on the slate, just two points less per game than Ekeler.

Jonathan Taylor should continue his rampage on the ground. Look for the Colts to get Michael Pittman more involved as we close in on the playoffs. With the Colts in comeback mode, Brevin Jordan against one of the worst secondaries facing tight ends in 2021 is an appetizing play as he forced Jordan Akins to the inactive list. Pharaoh Brown is still the lead tight end, but he’s obviously there to block. I’m predicting over 30 yards and a touchdown to the rookie. Nico Collins has a similar outlook. 

Hero RB drafters are sitting comfortably watching their stud running backs smash while also having enjoying league winning production from wide receivers drafted in the middle rounds of fantasy football drafts. The 2021 season shows once again why running backs are the backbone of championship fantasy teams.

Luckily for those who missed the boat on the early round studs such as Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler, the fantasy football season isn’t won or lost at the draft. While Hero RB gives a slight advantage, what I have taken from this thought experiment is to not lock into a specific draft strategy. Take the draft room as it comes and capitalize on players that fall. Keep the good process of drafting good players and good things will happen.

Terry McLaurin makes his season debut on the Air Yards Value Index. He is coming off a game where he failed to crest double digit fantasy points against a exploitable Seattle secondary. While his matchup this week against the Raiders is less appealing, McLaurin should continue to see copious volume in Washington’s offense. He is averaging 111 Air Yards on the season and is tops in the league in Air Yards Share.

Marvin Jones hasn’t posted more than double digits fantasy points since Week 6 when he finished as the WR9 posting 23 fantasy points. However he has averaged over 6 targets per game and seen at least 50 Air Yards per game since this time. With the Jaguars likely playing catchup against a high powered Ram offense, Jones makes for a great run-back option in Week 13 if you are stacking Rams in your tournament lineup.

As heavy favorites at expensive salaries (over 16K for the stack), the Matthew Stafford-Cooer Kupp pair should go under-rostered relative to upside. The Rams are tied for the highest implied total on the slate at over 30 points. Working in our favor is the fact that this a team that doesn’t take their foot off the gas when winning.

Tua Tagovailoa isn’t throwing as deep as Matthew Stafford, only 6.6 (No. 34 among qualified quarterbacks) Air Yards per Attempt, but is completing passes at an elite level. His 75.3-percent True Completion Percentage ranks No. 2, while he’s also top five in completion percentage in the redzone, clean pockets, and off play action. With nearly a $1K price jump over the last two weeks, Jaylen Waddle looks like an excellent Buy High opportunity this week as other fantasy gamers balk at the increase.

Rashod Bateman is a dormant volcano ready to erupt all over NFL secondaries. Promise hangs in the air for this young stud who’s getting an increase in playing time, has made some minute contributions for the team so far, and has yet to eclipse 90 yards or even score his first touchdown. The time is now! Football fans can expect explosive plays and production coming soon from this talented rookie Raven.

The snaps played and routes run reflect that Rashod Bateman has elevated himself above all receivers not named Marquise Brown. However, I would like to point out that Brown isn’t a typical target hog, but a big play received, and Bateman actually out-targeted him in Week 6. He has cemented himself to be the key cog of this passing attack, and the touchdowns will come raining down soon. 

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Not any cash plays in the index but a handful of tournament pivots off of popular cash game plays. Josh Jacobs for Elijah Mitchell or Myles Gaskin for Jamaal Williams could make sense in tournaments, especially large field ones where looking to be different.

I offer an attractive skill-set that combines speed and accuracy into an effective one-two punch. At age 29.6, I’m still in my writing prime and ready to break out. I may be a black box prospect, but I’m equipped with upper percentile agility and burst that lends to versatility and explosiveness. This is me asking for a J.K. Dobbins leap of faith. I know I can add value to your franchise. I’m a discounted version of the FFKing, Patrick Murphy.

This journey won’t come without bumps and bruises. Tagging players on Twitter, touting J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Darwin Thompson — I’ve made mistakes, but I’m prepared to handle the smoke and move forward. Sadly, my Twitter microphone is comparable to yelling into an empty room. On the bright side, I certainly saved myself from a misguided, unapologetic defense of two prospects who have yet to fire.