High Value Touch DFS Index – Week 13

by Mark Kieffer · Value Plays
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The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We weigh targets higher than carries and take it a step further to weigh it higher on DraftKings (PPR scoring) vs. FanDuel (Half PPR scoring). We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

This week’s list has names we have seen here before and some new ones too!  It should be an interesting week!

Top 5 Values:

5) Josh Jacobs: $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 22.80 (No. 5)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 17.63 (No. 6)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.44 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.33 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 58.70 percent

Josh Jacobs is tied for No. 17 out of all running backs on 1.44 carries inside the 10-yard line per game, No. 12 out of running backs on the slate. Jacobs also is No. 6 on the slate on targets inside the 10-yard line per game. While other values exist on the slate at the same price point as Jacobs, I like him as a pivot from some of the likely more popular options such as Elijah Mitchell for $6k on DraftKings in GPPs. The game has a 50-point total at the time of this writing, and we want to roster players in offenses expected to score.

4) Jordan Howard: $4,700 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel 

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 24.68 (No. 4 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 18.13 (No. 4 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 37.29 percent

Jordan Howard missed last weeks’ game and might miss this week too. Monitor injury news, as there should be an update on Thursday. If he is active, he is a goal-line back that can also get around 10 carries a game when Miles Sanders is healthy and playing.

3) Leonard Fournette: $7,300 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 24.53 (No. 3)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 21.37 (No. 2)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.09 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.36 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 64.15 percent

Leonard Fournette had a ceiling game last week, scoring four touchdowns! His price has not increased much despite this as Tampa Bay faces Atlanta this week. There are some better values at the price on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week, but Fournette is absolutely someone to consider for GPPs. He will be more popular with people likely chasing points for last week, so if he starts to get really chalky, pivot to a better play.

Fournette’s 2.09 carries inside the 10-yard line per game is No. 4 among all running backs and No. 3 among running backs on the slate. His 0.36 targets inside the 10-yard line is No. 6 among running backs on the slate. When someone gets this much work near the goal-line, they can have that ceiling game where they score four touchdowns in a game like he did last week.

2) Myles Gaskin: $5,800 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 26.42 (No. 2)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 21.34 (No. 3)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.5 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.42 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 68.91 percent

Myles Gaskin had his second-highest fantasy scoring week last week and his second week in a row with over 18 fantasy points.  His 0.42 targets per game inside the 10-yard line is No. 4 among running backs on the slate. The Giants have the No. 27 rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 127.7 rushing yards per game.

Myles Gaskin Game Log

On a slate where Jamaal Williams, a player that is priced in a similar range that is expected to be more popular, a pivot to Gaskin could make some sense in GPPs.

1) Austin Walter: $4,200 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 26.01 (No. 1)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 20.62 (No. 1)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 57.14 percent

Austin Walter had a nice debut last week: nine carries for 38 yards and one touchdown. With just one game played, it’s difficult to know what his role will be going forward.

Austin Walter Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

This is a bad offense, and generally, we do not want to roster running backs on bad teams, especially in murky backfield situations.

Just Missed The Cut

DraftKings: Darrell Henderson (22.79), Antonio Gibson (20.11), Giovani Bernard (19.47)
FanDuel: Antonio Gibson (17.90), Dalvin Cook (17.04),  Darrell Henderson (16.40)

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Final Thoughts

Not any cash plays in the index but a handful of tournament pivots off of popular cash game plays. Josh Jacobs for Elijah Mitchell or Myles Gaskin for Jamaal Williams could make sense in tournaments, especially large field ones where looking to be different.

We will come back for Week 14 with an update to the index! Best of luck in Week 13!