Week 6 WR-CB Matchups: Locking Down Lockett

by Aaron Stewart · Matchups Start/Sit

Week 6 is the first week of bye weeks in the NFL. This is when this series becomes more pivotal for fantasy football. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davante Adams, and Brandin Cooks are notable names on bye. Because of the start of bye weeks, this week’s WR-CB Matchup will provide two WRs poised to finish in the top-30 among WRs this week.

Let’s recap what I’m looking to accomplish in this series:

  • Firstly, I’m targeting players who are STARTING in over 50-percent of Sleeper Leagues to FADE. I believe that these WRs will finish outside the top-30 wide receivers for the week.
  • Secondly, I’m targeting players ROSTERED in less than 50-percent of Sleeper Leagues to PLAY. These are your desperate WR2 and/or FLEX plays. I believe these wide receivers will finish inside the top-30 WRs for the week.
  • Finally, players, I recommend playing I would play OVER players I recommend fading.

FADE – Tyler Lockett (CB Matchup: Byron Murphy – No. 13)

Tyler Lockett Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Tyler Lockett has been on a tear these past four games. He’s finished as a top-30 WR each week. So why is it time to fade Lockett? The Cardinals’ defense has allowed the No. 6-fewest receiving yards to WRs and only two touchdowns per Pro Football Reference. This is impressive considering the fact that the WRs have been targeted 104 times against Arizona’s defense, No. 10-most in the NFL.
Additionally, the last time Lockett failed to produce in fantasy, he was matched up against a Broncos’ secondary that allowed similar targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns that the Cardinals have allowed. Lockett is matched up with Byron Murphy who is top-20 in Yards Allowed, Yards Per Reception Allowed, and Yards Per Target Allowed.
Finally, Lockett leads the NFL in Completed Air Yards with 366 and is No. 40 in Yards After Catch. The Cardinals’ defense allows a league-leading 790 YAC and the No. 5-fewest Air Yards. Simply put, the Cardinals are built to handle Lockett’s strengths while Lockett won’t be able to exploit the Cardinals’ YAC weakness.

FADE – Drake London (CB Matchup: Charvarius Ward – No. 10)

Drake London Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Yes, Drake London is top-5 in both Target Share and Target Rate. But when your team is No. 31 in Team Pass Plays Per Game, does it matter that much? London is currently outside the top-30 in Fantasy Points Per Game and Expected Fantasy Points Per Game.
London is No. 81 in Target Separation and No. 77 in Contested Catch Rate. His primary coverage, Charvarius Ward, is top-10 in Target Separation and No. 2 in Pass Break-Ups with 7. Ward is top-10 in Receptions Allowed and Yards Per Target Allowed, while also top-5 in Coverage Rating (+39.6), Catch Rate Allowed (33.3-percent), and Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target (0.75).
Finally, The 49ers’ defense has allowed the No. 8-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. Only three defenses have allowed fewer receiving touchdowns to the position than the 49ers and eight defenses have allowed fewer receptions.

PLAY – Russell Gage (CB Matchup: Cameron Sutton – No. 97)

Russell Gage Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

The cheat code for finding WRs to stream in fantasy football is to find whoever plays the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have allowed the most yards and touchdowns to WRs this season according to Pro Football Reference. Additionally, they’ve allowed the No. 2-most targets and No. 4-most receptions and are matched up against a Buccaneers team that’s averaging 41.4 (No. 4) Team Pass Plays Per Game.

Finally, what Russell Gage lacks in Target Share (15.3-percent, No. 59) and Air Yards (153), he makes up for with Target Separation (2.03, No. 22) and 78 (No. 42) Yards After Catch. Cameron Sutton is No. 36 in Target Separation and No. 57 in Yards Per Reception Allowed.

PLAY – K.J. Osborn (CB Matchup: Nik Needham – No. 51)

K.J. Osborn Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

K.J. Osborn has been boom or bust this season. He’s had three games with under five fantasy points and two games over nine points. Osborn’s lackluster 11.5-percent (N0. 85) Target Share and 15.3-percent (No. 75) Air Yards Share are countered by his 76.4-percent (No. 51) Snap Share and 162 (No. 23) Routes Run. Osborn has been on the field. He’s waiting for the right matchup to score fantasy points.

Osborn boasts a 113.0 (No. 18) QB Rating Per Target and a 100-percent True Catch Rate. And his matchup this week is winnable. Nik Needham is No. 90 in Yards Per Reception Allowed, and his 135.0 Passer Rating Allowed is No. 86. He’s allowing 2.39 (No. 88) Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target.

Finally, the Miami Dolphins are allowing the No. 6-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Only eight NFL defenses have allowed more receiving yards to wide receivers, despite being in the bottom half of the NFL in both targets and receptions allowed to the position. Osborn has played 75-percent of the Vikings’ snaps in each of the past four games and has at least 32 Routes Run in those games. A boom week is incoming for Osborn.