This is Week 9 NFL Best Bets on BetOpenly! BetOpenly is a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. In Week 8, our picks went 1-2, with Rashee Rice logging four receptions to serve us our only win of the week. This week, we are back with best bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Trevor Tipton, with odds that you can only get at BetOpenly. Let’s bounce back with four plus-money props.
Last week, BetOpenly launched peer-to-peer player props. You now can also get better odds by 10 to 20 points than you can on a traditional sports book. The traditional sports book charges on average 10-percent. When you see a player prop for -110 at another book, you will generally see that prop at BetOpenly for +108 to +100. That is massive savings and a value you cannot get anywhere else.
If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly, and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season.
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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads). Additionally, you can combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail the picks with discipline. It’s important to stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.
Ahaan’s Week 9 Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Win (+144)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had a roller coaster season. They started the year with a 3-1 stretch. This included a road rout of the division-leading New Orleans Saints. Then, they had their bye week and are 0-3 ever since. However, Baker Mayfield has been banged up in that span. Additionally, two of those losses came at the hands of conference-contending teams in the Lions and Bills. Consider that a smokescreen.
On most sportsbooks, the Buccaneers are underdogs by a full field goal. That should not be the case in in Week 9. This is a matchup they could win outright in Houston. The Texans, themselves, have injuries to deal with. Most notably, wide receiver Robert Woods is doubtful and starting offensive linemen Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard, and George Fant were all either absent or limited at practice. Although quarterback C.J. Stroud has impressed in his rookie season and looks very much like the best player of his class, he has gotten away with mistakes and any injuries to the aforementioned would cause major issues in this matchup.
Stroud ranks outside the top-25 at the position in true completion percentage, completion percentage under pressure, and catchable pass rate under pressure. Tampa Bay’s defense has been aging. However, they still rank close to league average in PFF coverage grade and No. 1 in PFF tackling grade. This should counter the fact that the Texans pass-catchers rank among league-leaders in yards after catch per target.
As for the offensive end, Tampa Bay has finally listed Mayfield as clear of an injury tag. That bodes well for a bounce back game from the Buccaneers. Mayfield ranks No. 11 among all quarterbacks this season in adjusted EPA per play and ranks around middle-of-the-pack in completion percentage and accuracy rating under pressure. Houston’s team total is set by Vegas at 19.5. This is a number they have failed to clear in a single game since their Week 5 bye. That is a tell that the books think Mayfield’s guys won’t be severely troubled and that’s enough for me to bite on them at this price.
On most sportsbooks, Tampa Bay is set at around +120 to +125 on the moneyline. However, you can get them at the dirt-cheap +144 price. This is an absolute steal on BetOpenly.
Lamar Jackson (BAL) OVER 42.5 rushing yards (+100)
The former MVP Lamar Jackson is putting up yet another QB1 season under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Despite the designed runs fluctuating week-to-week in this system, Jackson has cleared this prop in four of his eight games. All four of Jackson’s misses came in blowout scripts. In these games, Baltimore prioritized health for their franchise quarterback. Although Baltimore is a heavy home favorite (5.5 points), there is no guarantee they can get through the tough Seahawks as easily as their last few opponents.
The Seahawks defense ranks No. 8 in pressure rate, No. 8 in pass rush win rate, and No. 10 in run run stop win rate. That means their banged up backfield might not have the easiest go producing on the ground. and Jackson won’t have the easiest time staying clean in the pocket. This should promote more scrambles. On most sportsbooks, you have to pay pick ‘em juice (around -115) for the over on his rushing yards, but at BetOpenly you can avoid that completely and buy it as a coin flip.
Trevor’s Week 9 Picks
Breece Hall (NYJ) OVER 17.5 receiving yards (+104)
New York Jets running back Breece Hall has been impressive in his return from injury in fantasy football this season. Additionally, he’s in a good spot to continue his success in Week 9 against the Los Angeles Chargers. One of the reasons to be bullish on Hall this week is his role in the passing game. Hall has been heavily involved as a receiver in recent weeks, going from three to five and now nine targets since his return.
Hall also has been efficient with his targets, catching 88-percent of his passes and averaging 11.7 yards per reception. At the same time, he has had 22, 53, and 75 yards after the catch in subsequent weeks since his return. The Los Angeles Chargers are also one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL against running backs out of the backfield. They have given up 384 yards this season to running backs receiving which is No. 5 worst while allowing a staggering 8.3 yards per route run.
Another reason to like Hall’s chances of exceeding 17.5 receiving yards this week is the Jets’ game plan. The Jets are likely to be trailing in this game, which should force them to pass the ball more often. Hall is a trusted option for quarterback Zach Wilson, and he should see plenty of targets if the Jets are playing catch-up. This line is currently -114 at most books, and you can get it at BetOpenly for +104.
Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA) OVER 15.5 rushing yards (+104)
The Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs travel to Germany this week for the early Sunday morning matchup. This game’s total is currently 51, and we expect fireworks in Frankfurt. Jeff Wilson Jr. is back from injured reserve and is expected to play a significant role in the Miami Dolphins’ backfield. Wilson is a physical runner who is capable of breaking big plays, and he should have plenty of opportunities to do so against the Chiefs’ mediocre run defense. In his return to the Dolphins lineup, Wilson Jr rushed for 23 yards last week. In 2022 hit this line 75-percent of the time.
Neutral Site Games
In addition to the Chiefs’ average run defense, Wilson is also boosted by the fact that he will be playing in a neutral-site game in Germany. Neutral-site games tend to favor offenses, and the Dolphins are one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Miami also has one of the best run block matchups for Week 9 with only the Bills having a better projection.
The Chiefs just gave up 85 yards to Javonte Williams of the Broncos, and we expect Wilson Jr and Mostert to both exceed their rushing lines this week. One of the best weapons against Mahomes and the Chiefs is to keep the ball out of their hands. We expect a heavy dose of rush attempts this week from the McDaniel led Dolphins. The Dolphins are currently the No. 1 Rush DVOA team in the NFL, and we witnessed what they were able to do with two healthy running backs. Take advantage at BetOpenly as this line is currently -110. It is way higher at every other sports book, and it is a value that is too good to pass up in this matchup.