The Fantasy Supermarket: Trade Targets Going Into Week 4

by Matty Kiwoom · Dynasty Leagues

Looking for a running back that may be on sale? How about a wide receiver that is being discounted due to bad reviews? Maybe a quarterback or tight end whose price is about to skyrocket? This is the right place. Welcome to the Fantasy Supermarket!

The players that are in the Fantasy Supermarket have indicators suggesting that their current value may increase in short order. I’ll be using advanced analytics and metrics from’s Data Analysis tool to highlight which players are worth buying into. But you have to act now because these current prices will not last long. 

Javonte Williams

The way the Denver Broncos use their running backs is incredibly frustrating for fantasy managers. The split usage of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon significantly lowers the upside of both players. Williams’s 56.3-percent Opportunity Share is not ideal, but there are some positive signs in his performance profile that suggests he is a player to buy before it is too late. 

Javonte Williams Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Three weeks into the season, Williams is averaging 12.8 Fantasy Points per Game. But using PlayerProfiler’s Expected Fantasy Points per Game metric, the Broncos’ back should be scoring more. He is joined by Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara as the only three running backs who have been expected to score five or more fantasy points per contest. Javonte’s 20.8-percent Target Share (No. 1 among qualified RB), 153 Yards Created (No. 12), and three Breakaway Runs (No. 7) further prove that he has the skill to improve on his current RB 17 status. Let’s give the man more than four total Red Zone Opportunities Denver!

Diontae Johnson

There were a number of questions around the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. One of those questions was, “how will Diontae Johnson perform with a new quarterback?” So far in 2022, Johnson has performed like a WR-2. Johnson is currently sitting at WR 24 and is averaging 14.2 Fantasy Points per Game. However, his Expected Fantasy Points per Game is 3.1 points higher at 17.3 (No. 15 among qualified WR). Looking under the hood, there are metrics that support the fact that he has been expected to score more points than he has.

Diontae Johnson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Johnson ranks in the top ten for wide receivers in Target Share (32.4-percent), Air Yards Share (36.7-percent), Deep Targets (six), and Air Yards (363). There is an obstacle in the way of Johnson ascending back into the top 10. His quarterback’s play must improve. His 84.8-percent Catchable Target Rate and 161 Unrealized Air Yards (No. 11) this season highlight how Mitch Trubisky is holding him back. 

Regardless, the Steelers wideout is operating as the team’s best and most reliable pass catcher. The volume he has seen three weeks into the year is encouraging for future success. If Trubisky improves, even just a little bit, Johnson will creep up the WR ranks and then the buying window shuts. Team builders should be leaving the Fantasy Supermarket with some Diontae Johnson.

Buy of the Week: Kyle Pitts

Chances to acquire a player with the talent level of Kyle Pitts don’t come around often, but three weeks into the NFL season there is a buy window. It may not be wide open, but it is cracked open enough to try and buy into a player that could be a true game changer the rest of the season. The main reason why team builders would be receptive to getting trade offers for Pitts is his 7.2 fantasy points per game. This is a mark that puts him behind tight ends like Tyler Conklin, Evan Engram, and Will Dissly

Kyle Pitts Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

But just like the others mentioned, the Falcons pass catcher has a higher Expected Fantasy Points per Game than what he has scored. Pitts leads all qualifying tight ends with a gap of +3.4 points. His 201 Unrealized Air Yards and one Red Zone Target calls for some positive regression in the near future.

Regression is not the only metric where he ranks in the top three. The second year player has a 23.7-percent Target Share (No. 3 among qualified TE), 30-percent Target Rate, 278 Air Yards (No. 2), 34.3-percent Air Yard Share (No. 2), 15.4 aDOT, and six Deep Targets (No. 1). His 2.08 Yards per Route Run (No. 5) and Yards per Reception (No. 3) are encouraging for future success. While shopping, make sure to grab some Kyle Pitts while he is at a slight discount.

Fantasy Supermarket Wrap Up

Acquiring players at the right time is a major key to success in fantasy football. Early panic can lead to team builders getting players they never would have imagined just a couple weeks ago. Javonte Williams, Diontae Johnson, and Kyle Pitts are three players that are worth targeting based on their underlying metrics versus current perception. Happy shopping and come on back to the Fantasy Supermarket. 

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