MNF Showdown Week 4: Rams vs 49ers

by Dookie Hogue · DFS

With Jimmy Garoppolo back under center, the 49ers will host the Rams in a NFC West MNF Showdown in Week 4. The game sets up as a defensive scrum with no love lost on either side. A notable injury that will affect the game include the loss of All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams. I like an alt-under here as a safe bet. The two teams have combined to average 43 points per game in their last 3 meetings. Touchdown hunting is also on the table with superstars like Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp on the field. Without further ado, let’s break down this Monday Night Showdown!

Rams vs 49ers Odds:
49ers -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5(-110)
Moneyline 49ers -122/Rams +104

The Rams

Matthew Stafford will have his work cut out for him while facing a stingy 49ers defense. Stafford has had a tough go regardless with two bottom 4 QB performances to bookend the start of the season (QB 29 in Week 1 and QB 28 in Week 3). The stout 49ers secondary has held opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 32-percent Pass Success Rate. Stafford is a low-end QB2 better suited for super-flex leagues or a one-game DFS flex option.

After commanding an impressive 82-percent Snap Share in Week 1, Darrell Henderson’s workload devolved into a true time-share with Cam Akers in subsequent weeks. In Week 3, Akers out-touched Henderson although the latter ran 10 more routes. I’m fading this committee backfield given the team’s struggles to run the ball.

Kupp and Higbee

My favorite player in this game is Cooper Kupp. Kupp is the unquestioned WR1 for his team as evidenced by his impressive 33.5-percent Target Share. Kupp seems to have his rival’s number too as he’s eclipsed 100 yards receiving in three straight matchups. I like him for over 93.5 receiving yards at -114. Run Kupp as a one-game DFS captain in tournaments or cash games if you like.

With Van Jefferson being shelved on IR with a knee injury and Allen Robinson a fantasy dud, turn your attention to Tyler Higbee. Higbee ranks No. 4 amongst qualified tight ends with a respectable 22.8-percent Target Share. Outside of Kupp, he’s the other option I’m comfortable rostering on this side of the ball.

The 49ers

Garoppolo’s unexpected return under center is definitely an uptick for the 49ers’ offense. Although he didn’t play Week 1, it’s worth noting that Garoppolo ranks No. 2 and No. 4 in Danger Throws and Interceptable Passes. His outlook in this game settles him as a borderline QB2 suitable for superflex leagues or as a one-game DFS flex option.

Since taking over the running back duties in the wake of the Elijah Mitchell injury, Jeff Wilson has commanded a 68-percent Opportunity Share. In Week 3 Wilson handled 100-percent of the running back Snaps. The matchup with the Rams is daunting but his workload entrenches him as a fine RB2.

The Pass-catchers

Since taking over at quarterback, Garoppolo has shown no favoritism between Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel (13 and 15 respective Targets). In an expected difficult matchup through the air and ground, I’m expecting Samuel to be the difference maker. Samuel leads the league with 17 Carries (among qualified wide receivers). His low 2.94 aDot paints a picture of how he has been deployed as a chain mover. His outlook is a low-end WR1, especially in PPR leagues.

While George Kittle always has a TE1 ceiling, I’d temper expectations for him while helping out with the team’s injury-riddled offensive line. With the injury to left tackle Williams, Kittle has been forced into more in-line blocking. He’s a weekly must-start in season-long leagues but I’m fine to fade him otherwise even in one-game DFS contests.

Score Prediction: Rams 23 49ers 20