Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 16

by Matthew M. Stevens · Upside Plays

Unlocking the potential of weekly player volatility in daily fantasy football gives gamers a competitive edge. A key metric on PlayerProfiler, Weekly Volatility measures a player’s week-to-week fantasy point scoring oscillation. This article will track the most volatile wide receivers and provide insight on when to deploy them in large-field GPPs. Using matchup and usage data combined with advanced stats to pinpoint the best plays yields the best ROI from volatile players. The focus will be on those highly volatile players with cheap salaries and low projected rostership who make screaming plays with tournament winning upside.

Watkins Wake-Up Call

Welcome to the party, Quez Watkins. After barely seeing the field in the early portion of the season, and also dealing with an injury, Watkins got the nod over fellow rookie John Hightower in Week 14. He had a quiet game, but emerged a week later. Against Arizona, Watkins scored his first pro touchdown while snagging 3-of-4 targets for 40 yards.

Quez Watkins Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

One bust week and one boom week earned Watkins his Weekly Volatility score of 8.3, which ranks No. 24 among qualified wide receivers. It’s a sign of things to come from the sixth-round pick out of Southern Miss. As a Golden Eagle, he showed his field-stretching mettle by averaging 15.4 (59th-percentile) yards per reception. In his senior season, he recorded his highest collegiate mark of 18.4 YPR. With 4.35 (95th-percentile) 40-yard Dash speed, he’s the fastest player in the Eagles wide receiver corps. At the stone minimum of $3,000 on DraftKings, he offers gamers salary relief and flexible roster construction coupled with upside. And at low projected rostership, he’s also a leverage play in large-field GPPs.

Check out Quez Watkins on PlayerProfiler’s New DYNASTY DELUXE Rankings:

Watkins’ first significant action comes at an opportune time with Jalen Hurts taking over under center for Carson Wentz. Albeit on a small sample size, in two games with Hurts, Watkins boasts a 142.1 Passer Rating When Targeted. For context, David Moore currently tops all qualified receivers with a 136.7 mark. Showing off his elite speed, Watkins took a screen pass from Hurts 32 yards to the house against Arizona. The speedy rookie looks primed to fill the void left by DeSean Jackson, who’s still working his way back from a leg injury. He’ll have another chance to showcase his talent this week against a weak Dallas secondary. The Cowboys allow +4.11 fantasy points above the mean to opposing receivers, the fifth-most this season.

Quiet Claypool Primed for Boom Week

Chase Claypool endured a recent quiet stretch following a streak of five straight games with at least 11 fantasy points. Despite seeing five red zone targets over the past four games, he’s failed to find the end zone. However, he continued to receive a consistent Target Share during that span, earning 9, 4, 6, and 6 targets.  Claypool also possesses the requisite size and skillset that makes him a threat to score on any play. Showcasing his dynamic playmaking this season, he has scored a total of 10 (No. 5) touchdowns.

Chase Claypool Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Claypool’s recent streak of bust games figures to end sooner than later given his volatile nature. His 10.5 Weekly Volatility mark ranks No. 7 among qualified receivers. Values over 10.0 show extreme fantasy scoring fluctuation. He’s the most viable Steelers receiver this week, and also possesses the highest upside. While JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson dink and dunk with short passes from Ben Roethlisberger, Claypool leads the team with a 29.4-percent (No. 32) Air Yards Share and 25 (No. 5) Deep Targets. And priced at a salary of $5,900 with a fantasy ceiling of 40 points, he offers an intriguing play.

Steelers Primary Week 16 CB Matchups and PlayerProfiler CB Rankings

Claypool also draws the easiest primary cornerback matchup of the Steelers receivers against Rock Ya-Sin. The two receivers who enjoyed the best fantasy outings against Ya-Sin this season were big-bodied players- Tee Higgins and Corey Davis. At 6-4, 238-pounds, Claypool presents a matchup problem for Ya-Sin and his -18.3 (No. 71) Coverage Rating.