Upside Plays

One bust week and one boom week earned Quez Watkins his Weekly Volatility score of 8.3, which ranks No. 24 among qualified wide receivers. It’s a sign of things to come from the sixth-round pick out of Southern Miss. At the stone minimum of $3,000 on DraftKings, he offers gamers salary relief and flexible roster construction coupled with upside. And at low projected rostership, he’s also a leverage play in large-field GPPs.

Chase Claypool’s recent streak of bust games figures to end sooner than later given his volatile nature. While JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson dink and dunk with short passes from Ben Roethlisberger, Claypool leads the team with a 29.4-percent (No. 32 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share and 25 (No. 5) Deep Targets. And priced at a salary of $5,900 with a fantasy ceiling of 40 points, he offers an intriguing play.

The Atlanta Falcons have allowed the fifth-most receptions to RBs on the season, giving a bonafide receiving back like Le’Veon Bell a high-floor. Given the spread of this game, Bell and the Chiefs should see nothing but positive Game Script. His price isn’t cheap, but at $5800, he projects as one of the week’s best values. Plus, there aren’t many exciting RB options without Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, or Derrick Henry on the main slate. 

Melvin Gordon has now averaged over 5.0 yards per touch in three straight games while averaging 18.1 DK fantasy points. He should get a solid usage bump on top of his efficiency this week with both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman not practicing with hip issues. If they don’t suit up against the Chargers or are limited in any capacity, Gordon’s 59.9-percent (No. 20 among qualified running backs) percent Opportunity Share would certainly rise to elite levels. 

T.Y. Hilton draws a matchup with a Texans team that has been awful in defending the pass all season. This contest is destined to shoot out, with the second-highest over/under on the main slate, providing plenty of room for another ceiling game. Even with his recent surge in performance, Hilton is still just $5,500 on DraftKings. Take advantage.

With Will Fuller suspended and Randall Cobb still out with a toe injury, Keke Coutee will continue to be on the field a lot. For what it’s worth, both of his career 100-yard games have come against the Colts. That includes two weeks ago when he torched Indianapolis for 141 yards on nine targets. This game has the second-highest over/under on the main slate and Coutee is an affordable $5,300 on DraftKings.

For all his fantasy scoring fluctuation – his 9.3 Weekly Volatility score ranks No. 15 among qualified wide receivers – Calvin Ridley has posted WR1 numbers in five different weeks this season, including three top-3 finishes. He’s earned a consistently high Target Share, seeing no fewer than nine targets across his past four games. Regardless of Julio Jones’ availability (hamstring), Ridley needs to be fired up.

D.K. Metcalf needs no narrative to smash a slate, and he won’t get one this week. Washington holds opposing receivers to a total of 19.8 Fantasy Points per Game, the third-fewest this season. Metcalf carries the third-highest salary ($8,600) on the main slate, which pushes the masses off him. And when that happens and his projected rostership falls below 10-percent, he deserves to be in GPP lineups.

Tyler Lockett is the most volatile fantasy football wide receiver in the league. He carries a Weekly Volatility mark of 14.4, showing extremely fantasy scoring oscillation. A true boom-or-bust archetype, Lockett looks primed for a breakout game against the Jets. And at a salary of $7,200 on DraftKings with low projected rostership, he’s a leverageable GPP asset.

Amari Cooper is being overlooked in a potential blowup spot with low projected rostership. The Andy Dalton revenge game narrative comes into play, with the quarterback facing his former team for the first time. If Dalton elevates his play against the Bengals, the Cowboys receivers benefit. And Cooper, who’s seen an increase in targets in each of his past four games, figures to be the biggest beneficiary and the lowest-rostered Cowboys receiver.

Corey Davis ranks No. 4 among qualified wide receivers with 11.4 Yards Per Target, while averaging 2.88 (No. 2) Yards Per Route Run with a 33.1-percent (No. 19) Air Yards Share. This week’s game has the second-highest over/under of the week, providing plenty of opportunity for another trip to the end zone against a Jaguars team that has allowed the fifth-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers. At just $5,700 we can’t pass up the upside.

Will Fuller’s suspension, coupled with Kenny Stills’ release and Randall Cobb’s absence due to a foot injury, unlocked third-year wide receiver Keke Coutee. He finished as the WR8 in Week 13 with eight receptions for a career-high 141 yards. The depleted Texans wide receiver corps ensures Coutee will continue to be the recipient of a high Target Share over the next few weeks. His knack for explosive plays makes him a great play at $5,000, even in a matchup with the Bears. 

Brandin Cooks has seen 57 targets over the last seven games, averaging six receptions and 83 yards per game over that stretch. This game against the Colts has an over/under of 51.5 points, opening the door for a ceiling game from Cooks. At $5,600, he presents massive upside compared to the guys near his price point.

Michael Pittman will continue to operate as the Colts’ No. 1 wide receiver against a Texans secondary that has allowed the 10th-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers. This game is tied for the highest projected point total of the week, so the chances of it shooting out are high. Assuming Pittman gets back to the efficiency we saw prior to Week 12, he will deliver his best performance to date. At $4,900, we can’t pass on that type of upside. 

No stranger to the boom-or-bust life, Adam Thielen has scored two TDs in each of his past two games. He recorded 32.3 fantasy points in Week 12 and 20.2 in Week 11. Prior to that, however, he notched two straight games with five fantasy points. His up-and-down weekly oscillation distils out in the form of a 10.6 (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility score. Primed to feast against the Jaguars, Thielen returns to his No. 1 role alongside talented rookie Justin Jefferson.

A volatile fantasy asset with an 8.4 (No. 23) Weekly Volatility mark, Allen finds himself on a hot streak. He’s scored in five consecutive games. Poised for another blowup game, Allen draws a beatable matchup against the Patriots. He faces primary coverage from Patriots cornerback Jonathan Jones, who’s allowed five TDs this season. It’s an exploitable matchup for Allen, who’s rostership projects to be lower than 10-percent.

Jerry Jeudy’s 6.0 (No. 74 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility mark signals a moderate degree of fantasy scoring fluctuation. However, his lack of producing a ceiling game yet directly affects that score. That, coupled with predictive Air Yards metrics, show that he makes for a compelling play this week. He also brings an affordable salary ($5,100) and low projected rostership. He offers gamers a ticking time bomb of slate-breaking upside.

What if I told you that 32.6-percent of Mike Williams’ targets came in the form of Deep Targets? His 9.9 Unrealized Air Yards per target rank No. 3 among receivers who have seen at least 30 targets this season. Even then, he averages 17.3 (No. 11) Yards per Reception. A boom-or-bust archetype, Williams has posted 20 or more fantasy points in two of his past six game and five or fewer points twice. That amounts to a 9.2 (No. 17) Weekly Volatility mark of 9.2 – bordering on extreme volatility.

D.J. Chark holds a 33.8-percent (No.13) Air Yards Share, so as long as Jake Luton is looking downfield, Chark will benefit as we saw in his 146-yard outing in Week 9. While the Steelers feel like an intimidating matchup, they actually rank middle of the pack against the pass and are tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers. We know Chark can produce the boom weeks and he will likely see low ownership because of the matchup despite the $5,700 price tag on DraftKings.

All three of Pittsburgh’s starting wideouts saw double-digit targets and found the end zone in Week 10. But it’s Diontae Johnson who has seen 10 or more targets in five of nine games this season, with 39 targets over the last four. This Steelers-Jaguars game features two high-volume passing offenses, so despite the low over/under, Johnson will still see plenty of opportunity to rack up fantasy points against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. You can’t go wrong at $5,900.