High Value Touch DFS Index – Week 6

by Mark Kieffer, October 16, 2021

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We weigh targets higher than carries and take it a step further to weigh it higher on DraftKings (PPR scoring) vs. FanDuel (Half PPR scoring). We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

This list is missing some of the running backs that would score well in this index such as Zack Moss, Mike Davis, Najee Harris, and Derrick Henry are not on the main slate for DFS this Sunday!

Below are the top five values on the High Value Touch DFS Index that are on the Main Slate on Sunday, along with a few players that almost made the cut.

Top 5 Values:

5) Mark Ingram: $4,200 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 24.86 (No. 5 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 19.70 (No. 6 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.8 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 38.46 percent

Mark Ingram Productivity Metrics

Mark Ingram keeps finding himself on this list due to the fact he is tied for No. 6 in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line per game and he is so inexpensive week in and week out.  He has had seven of his nine carries inside the 10-yard line during the first two weeks of the season. He has had just one carry inside the 10-yard line against each of Buffalo and New England. Although he is among the leaders in carries inside the 10-yard line, he has just one touchdown on the season. I am fading him in DFS as he has scored five or fewer fantasy points on each of his last four games, and I recommend you do as well.

4) Devontae Booker: $5,400 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 25.46 (No. 4 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 19.92 (No. 4 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.5 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 46.34 percent

Although Devontae Booker is averaging one carry inside the 10-yard line per game, his first opportunity to do this was last week against the Cowboys where he had four carries inside the 10-yard line. The same can be said in regard to targets as he was targeted twice last week inside the 10-yard line, turning one target into a touchdown reception. With Saquon Barkley unlikely to play this week, Booker will have the high-value touches if the Giants can make it inside the 10-yard line.

Although the Rams have the No. 19 rush defense, allowing 117.2 rushing yards per game, the Giants are 10.5 point underdogs. In the event the game is closer than 10.5 points, or the Giants score more than expected, Booker would likely do well. This is not the week I want to play Booker in cash games; I would have him in my player pool for tournaments, especially large field ones.

3) Ezekiel Elliott: $7,100 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 26.51 (No. 2 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 19.78 (No. 5 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.6 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.6 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 84.38 percent

Ezekiel Elliott Game Log

Ezekiel Elliott is quietly having a great fantasy season, as he is averaging 20.3 DraftKings points per game this season. He is getting significant work inside the 10-yard line. He is tied for No. 10 in carries inside the 10-yard line per game and is tied for No. 2 in targets inside the 10-yard line per game. New England is No. 5 in allowing rushing touchdowns as they average just 0.6 rushing touchdowns allowed per game. Elliott is someone I would consider using in tournaments this week in DFS, as he can always break a slate, however, there are better values to use for cash games this week.

2) Aaron Jones: $7,300 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 25.78 (No. 3 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 20.53 (No. 2 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.6 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.6 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 71.93 percent

Aaron Jones Opportunity Metrics

Aaron Jones finds himself No. 2 on the list for a second straight week. His price has come down a little bit. Ezekiel Elliott is the better value than Jones on DraftKings, however, Jones is the better value on FanDuel due to pricing. Their production profiles are identical. The Packers face Chicago, a team that allows just 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game, and are No. 12 allowing 103.8 rushing yards per game. The game has one of the lower totals on the slate, just 45 points as of this writing. Jones is a tournament play this week, not a cash play, and I am only using him if employing more than one lineup. Similar to Elliott, his ceiling is as high as any other running back on the slate, but there is some downside in a tough matchup in a likely low-scoring game.

1) D’Andre Swift: $6,300 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 28.03 (No. 1 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 21.49 (No. 1 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.4 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.6 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 72 percent

D’Andre Swift Opportunity and Productivity Metrics

D’Andre Swift also is No. 1 on the list for a second straight week.  He is No. 13 in Carries Inside The 10-yard line Per Game and also tied for No. 2 in Targets Inside The 10-yard Line Per Game. Swift also leads the Lions in targets, averaging seven per game. The high number of targets, in general, create a high floor and Swift is someone to use in both cash games and tournaments this week, despite facing a strong rush defense in Cincinnati. Swift is too cheap and I am going to continue to roster him in my DFS lineups until he gets more expensive or until the season ends; whichever comes first.

Honorable Mention: Darrel Williams

Darrel Williams is someone to consider for your DFS cash game and tournament lineups. Williams does not score well on the index because the index is backward-looking. Last week, Williams had one carry and one target inside the 10-yard line. I believe only eight running backs in all of the NFL are averaging a combined two rushes and targets inside the 10-yard line per game. While he does make the “just missed the cut list” if his opportunity is similar this week to last week, he is someone that is very viable to use in your DFS lineups.

 

Just Missed The Cut

DraftKings: Jonathan Taylor (24.15), Darrel Williams (22.45), David Johnson (21.84), James Conner (21.09)
FanDuel: Jonathan Taylor (20.19), James Conner (19.02), Darrel Williams (18.08)  

fantasy-football-dynasty-league-rankings

Final Thoughts

D’Andre Swift and Darrel Williams are my two favorite running backs to use in cash games this week due to their usage inside the 10-yard line along with their floor created by being targeted frequently. Aaron Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, and Devontae Booker are running backs I would include in my player pool when setting tournament lineups for Week 6.

We will come back for Week 7 with an update to the index! Best of luck in Week 6!