There’s no rest for the weary fantasy football manager these days. Every time you turn around, an event in the NFL affects player values. First came the mayhem of free agency, followed closely by the NFL Draft. As if there weren’t enough changes to digest in advance of fantasy football drafts, the NFL schedule comes just in time to throw existing veteran and rookie values into a meat grinder.
While the common practice for the average manager is to draft the best player available in Redraft, make no mistake: Ignoring the winners and losers of the schedule release is a fool’s errand. Below are a few fantasy football losers based on the schedule, whom you may want to fade at their average draft positions and leave for your opponents. Pedal to the metal … let’s go.
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2025 NFL Schedule Release: Fantasy Football Losers
Alvin Kamara | RB, New Orleans Saints
Poor Alvin Kamara. Headed into his eighth NFL season at age 30, he deserves better than this. The New Orleans defense lacks talent (even with the addition of four rookies) and is destined to finish well into the bottom half of the NFL again in 2025. Locker room presence and utilityman extraordinaire Taysom Hill (knee) already has his good leg out the door unless he takes on a huge contract restructure. Chris Olave is one more hospital ball away from early retirement and will not have an experienced NFL quarterback throwing the ball. Derek Carr opted for retirement (labrum, rotator cuff) at 34 years old amid a slew of questions.
Long story short, the Saints are going nowhere fast. Even with arguably the easiest schedule in the league, they are likely to flirt with outdoing iterations of Detroit and Cleveland, who both went 0-16 once this millennium.
Can He Throw, Too?
You could argue that all of these factors do not bode well for Kamara. You’d be right, though the schedule was the icing on the cake. Aside from the fact that the team isn’t special per se, they also have two four-game stretches against quarterbacks who love to heave the ball. In Weeks 1-4, Weeks 6-9, and Week 14, they are going to be trailing in the entirety of the games. Running the ball and dump-offs aren’t going to get it done. Just like that, your No. 1 weapon is neutralized.
The only hope now for Kamara to salvage the tail end of his career is to get traded. That’s what it will take for him to come through for fantasy managers this season. There have been rumblings that this is a real possibility, but the running back has expressed the desire to finish his career in New Orleans and retire a Saint. Kamara is currently coming off the board at the start of Round 6. In many leagues, someone will start eyeing him in the fifth. This season, he’s a fade until the eighth unless he is traded.
Kyren Williams | RB, Los Angeles Rams
People’s jaws hit the floor last season when Kyren Williams kept emerging from the tunnel with the starting lineup each week. But by god, he played 16 games and was only inactive in Week 17 to rest up for the postseason. A lot has been made of Williams’ injury history (hand, foot, hip), but the most concerning is his ankle. He’s suffered a pedal sprain (high ankle sprain) twice already in his short NFL career, costing him 13 games combined.
Last year, the Notre Dame product bucked the trend and was then given his highest workload to date. Williams had 350 touches (316 carries) and handsomely rewarded fantasy managers’ trust in him. He had 1,299 yards rushing (4.1 YPC), 1,481 yards from scrimmage, and 16 trips to the promised land.
Nostradamus Need Not Apply
We’re not trying to look into the crystal ball and draft scared, here. However, the injury history combined with a 350-touch workload does not bode well for a guy with little time to recover in 2025. Unfortunately, such will be the case for Williams and all of his Rams teammates. Los Angeles will travel over 34,000 miles this season, the second-most in the NFL. This is by virtue of facing off with the South conferences in both the AFC and NFC, as well as trips to Philadelphia and Baltimore, which will presumably be slugfests.
The wear-and-tear on a running back’s body cannot be overstated, and neither can the fact that there are two other very capable players in the Rams’ backfield that Williams can cede carries to. What’s more, there’s only one occasion where back-to-back road games could be handled by staying on the road. The Rams even have a pivotal pair late in the season wherein they’ll play in Detroit, turn around and play a pivotal division game with the Seahawks just four days later.
Williams cannot possibly align last year’s workload to the grind of this season’s schedule. The chances are slim he misses no games at all, and are high that he’s going to be splitting more carries. His ADP has been slipping with minimal information this offseason, as right now he’s being selected as the RB11 off the board in the mid-third round. That’s probably where his ADP should stay, although as more leagues draft, it will be sure to go up again. Fade him until the third and let one of your leaguemates overpay.
J.J. McCarthy | QB, Minnesota Vikings
I hate to do this to J.J. McCarthy after his career stalled before even playing a game, but the stage is set. It doesn’t matter how “cool under pressure” multiple people say a player is … they’re human. McCarthy has a tough slate to get through, and the scheduling committee did him no favors. He’ll open the season on Sept. 8 for his first NFL start, under the lights of Monday Night Football in an away game against the division rival Chicago Bears and 2024 No.1-overall pick Caleb Williams.
The following Sunday, the Vikings are back under the lights again. This time, it’s a Sunday Night Football affair hosting Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons. They’ll remain at home for Week 3 when possibly the most high-octane offense in the league comes to visit in the form of the Cincinnati Bengals. It must get easier from here, right? Not so much. Time for a European tour, where McCarthy and Co. will introduce Ireland to the first-ever NFL game in Dublin. The crowd will be raucous at the 82,000-plus-seat stadium. No word yet on whether the locals are big drinkers. From Dublin, it’s just a hop, skip, and a jump over to London to take on the Cleveland Browns. The saving grace of doing this for Minnesota appears to be lesser competition, and both will be counted as away games. They’ll be “away,” all right.
It Gets Easier, Right? Right?!
Mercifully, the Vikings will return home to rest their bones and ice down their shoulders in a Week 6 bye. Time will tell if having it that early in the season turns out to be a good thing, but I imagine that for McCarthy, it will be glorious after a very overwhelming opening to the season. If you are scoring at home, that’s one rivalry game, four nationally televised contests, two prime time games under the lights, and three countries. Piece of cake, right? Or crumpet or whatever.
It doesn’t let up for the signal-caller there. Fresh off the bye, Minnesota will face (in order) the Eagles, Chargers (primetime), Lions, and Ravens; all four were playoff teams a season ago. The schedule eases up for the home stretch, but they’ll still split home and away four/four. The away games come as a pair of back-to-back road games, but at least one isn’t in, say, Myanmar. Surprisingly, Las Vegas has installed a win total of 8.5 for the Vikings this season, aka half of their games. To even sniff that, McCarthy is going to have to leave all narratives behind and prove right off the bat that he’s here to stay.
McCarthy will not be fully rostered in Redraft leagues, except in rare cases when benches are large enough that everyone has two quarterbacks. He can be a great streaming option if your top guy gets hurt, is on bye, or just has a tough matchup. He is coming off the board in the 11th round currently, but I expect his ownership in Redraft Fantasy Football leagues to be below 65-percent on all sites by the season’s start.
Honorable Mention: Philadelphia Eagles
You aren’t likely to change your mind about the studs across the Eagles’ skill players, but be wary of their ADPs. Jalen Hurts is coming off his fewest attempts, completions, passing yards, and touchdowns aside from his rookie season (four starts). He also has someone new calling the shots in the passing game with the departure of Kellen Moore. Why does that matter? The Eagles see Jayden Daniels (x2) and Dak Prescott (x2) in their division alone. A dash of Jared Goff. A pinch of Matthew Stafford. A few sprinkles of Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield! Set the oven to “shootout” and invite Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes over.
Not only are we talking world-beaters at quarterback, but these teams will bring their A game for this matchup. Most of them are going to stack the box hard against Saquon Barkley and force Hurts to beat them. That’s precisely the opposite of what the Eagles did in their 2024 run to the Super Bowl.
The fantasy playoffs will feature your Eagles fantasy shares at Washington and at Buffalo, Weeks 16 and 17. Not exactly mouth-watering. You don’t need to fade the entire Eagles team. But it would be wise not to reach for their stars if they don’t just fall into your lap. And if they’re there, decide exactly how much better they are than the guy next on the list.
Happy drafting! You can check out my ADP fantasy football “winners” after the schedule release by clicking right here.
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