Save money in your next auction draft by fading these Name Brand players and buying their Generic Brand counterparts.
My first article illustrated how player auction values drop dramatically round-to-round. This article will lay out the case on why it’s wise to save money by drafting two “generic brand” players with ADP that is at least 12 spots lower than their “name brand” counterparts.
ADP by Underdog Fantasy
Mike Evans (Name Brand, ADP: 35.3)
Tee Higgins (Generic Brand, ADP 46.1)
The label (physical attributes) is the same
The active ingredient (opportunity) is the same
The “active ingredient” (opportunity metrics) for both players is the same. The Buccaneers ran a pass heavy offense with a 40.5 (No. 10) Team Pass Plays Per Game average, and the Bengals were right behind them with 39.3 (No. 11). Higgins had a 20.2-percent (No. 36 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share, while Evans finished with 18-percent (No. 51). You don’t have to be a pharmaceutical scientist to determine that both of these players had similar opportunity metrics in 2020.
Studies show that Higgins is a better value than Evans
Auction drafters must target Higgins over Evans not only because he delivers the same bang for less buck, but also because the opportunity has room for growth. The Bengals drafted stud WR Ja’Marr Chase in the 2021 NFL Draft, but they did not re-sign veteran A.J. Green, who compiled 104 (No. 32) targets in 2020. Then, we have the Buccaneers re-signing Antonio Brown, who was a target magnet with a 20.1-percent (No. 2) Hog Rate in eight regular season games with Tampa. Higgins is playing alongside an unproven rookie and Evans is playing next to a veteran that commanded significant target volume in 2020.
Draft Higgins over Evans for upside and savings!
J.K. Dobbins (Name Brand, ADP: 32.6)
Miles Sanders (Generic, ADP: 50.2 )
The flashy Name Brand J.K. Dobbins is an excellent product, but Miles Sanders is a better value that delivers more PPR upside.
Don’t fall for the expensive marketing campaign behind Dobbins. Yes, he’s on a good offense, the Ravens did not re-sign Mark Ingram, and his 2020 efficiency metrics on PlayerProfiler.com were impressive:
Dobbins was one of the most efficient running backs in 2020 with a 5.29 (No. 1) True Yards Per Carry average, 6.1 (No. 3) Yards Per Touch, an 8.2-percent (No. 1) Breakaway Run Rate, and a 30.9-percent (No. 5) Juke Rate. It’s easy to make a case for the Name Brand Dobbins, but I prefer opportunity and targets over efficiency.
While I love Dobbins, I love Sanders more because he saves me auction dollars and provides me with more opportunity and more targets.
Sanders is not viewed as a bell cow RB, but his 76.3-percent (No. 6) Opportunity Share and 77.0-percent (No. 3) Snap Share are indicative of a lead back. Dobbins had much lower Opportunity and Snap Share metrics in 2020, and he is being drafted nearly a round and a half ahead of Sanders. Even if these metrics converge in 2021, Sanders doubled Dobbins in targets with 52 (No. 16) in 2020.
Sanders, the discount Dobbins, will save auction gamers dollars and provide a higher floor and ceiling with his superior opportunity metrics.
Generic Brand FTW
The easiest way to win an auction draft is to obtain players that perform as well or better than their higher ADP counterparts. Drafting Tee Higgins and Miles Sanders over Mike Evans and J.K. Dobbins will result in saving 10 to 12-percent of total auction budget. That’s enough budget to acquire a player with fourth round ADP! Would you rather have Tyler Lockett (ADP: 35.2) or Michael Gallup (ADP: 75.7) as your WR3? Going Generic Brand over Name Brand will allow you to have a high-end WR2 as your WR3.