Week 10 WR-CB Matchups: Josh Face-Palmer

by Aaron Stewart · Matchups Start/Sit

This is the Week 10 WR-CB Matchups! Last week, I provided two solid calls when I recommended playing Terrace Marshall (WR19) and DeAndre Carter (WR27), but I couldn’t complete the trifecta of takes. I still believe in the process of fading Tyler Lockett (WR12) last week as he was only targeted five times. However, he caught all of his targets and found the endzone. Still a good week overall to survive the Week 9 Bye-Apocalypse. Time to move on to Week 10!

Let’s recap what I’m looking to accomplish in this series:

  • First, I’m targeting players who are STARTING in over 50-percent of Sleeper Leagues to FADE. I believe that these WRs will finish outside the top-30 wide receivers for the week.
  • Second, I’m targeting players ROSTERED in less than 50-percent of Sleeper Leagues to PLAY. These are your desperate WR2 and/or FLEX plays. I believe these wide receivers will finish inside the top-30 WRs for the week.
  • Finally, the players I recommend playing I would play OVER players I recommend fading.

FADE – Terry McLaurin (CB Matchup: Darius Slay – No. 1)

Terry McLaurin Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Over the past three weeks, the Eagles’ secondary hasn’t allowed a wide receiver to reach 70 receiving yards and has allowed one receiving touchdown to the position. According to Pro Football Reference, the Eagles allow the third-fewest Air Yards and the eighth-fewest Yards After Catch. Darius Slay is No. 7 in Coverage Rating (+27.5) and No. 7 in Catch Rate Allowed (42.9-percent).

Yes, Terry McLaurin has seen 8+ targets in each game since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback while facing touch matchups and secondaries in the Packers and Colts. However, the Heinicke-McLaurin pairing went 0-2 against Darius Slay and the Eagles last season on its attempts to get McLaurin to finish inside the top-30 at his position.

FADE – Josh Palmer (CB Matchup: Charvarius Ward – No. 5)

People are overvaluing Josh Palmer in fantasy and starting him in 58-percent of Sleeper leagues. Yes, he did finish as WR10 last week with an 8-106-0 stat line. However, that was against a depleted secondary forced to push Cornell Armstrong into significant playing time. Palmer is still outside the top-70 in Fantasy Points Per Route Run (0.28) and Fantasy Points Per Target (1.50).

Palmer’s primary matchup this week is against Charvarius Ward, who has only allowed over 35 yards in just ONE game this season. Ward is not a household name, but he’s top-5 in Coverage Rating (+29.8), Catch Rate Allowed (41.7-percent), and Passer Rating Allowed (61.9). Don’t trust Palmer and his +0.9 (No. 112) Value Over Stream.

PLAY – DeAndre Carter (CB Matchup: Deommodore Lenoir – No. 93)

Josh Palmer Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

I’m fading Josh Palmer and recommending his teammate, DeAndre Carter. Obviously, monitor Keenan Allen‘s status, but he didn’t practice on Thursday and isn’t trending toward playing at the time of this writing. In the past two games, Carter has been forced into play. He’s responded with snap shares over 80-percent, over six targets per game, and over 70+ Air Yards per game.

Last week, Carter faced an inferior cornerback and finished inside the top-30 without scoring a touchdown. I’m confident going back to the well again with Carter against Deommodore Lenoir. Lenoir is responsible for Shi Smith‘s one (and only) relevant game this season. Additionally, Lenoir allowed Cooper Kupp a nine reception game. He’s primarily a nickelback matched up against slot receiver in Carter and is outside the top-70 in Coverage Rating and Yards Per Target Allowed.

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