Best ball season is here, and the same yearly conundrums are rearing their ugly heads. The name of the game is upside, but once managers get through the sixth round or so, many haven’t dug deep enough into their rankings to make informed decisions. Well, money talks, and can lead to a best ball cheat code in place of your throwaway picks. Drafters need to take shots at guaranteed points with upside, rather than swinging for the fences on boom/bust propositions throughout.
Even the most informed managers know their way around advanced metrics and what indicates the likelihood of consistent performance. But what if there are common-sense tools that any level of manager can deploy to get a leg up?
The first is knowledge of the schedule. I published an updated strength-of-schedule here that can be used as a tipoff for what players you are considering will face this year. For instance, the Panthers are likely to have trouble scoring points. So, too, are the Arizona Cardinals, who are going to be even worse off than last season.

These are just a few examples that will force players like Tetairoa McMillan and Trey McBride‘s ADPs into a gated community — too rich for their own good. Take a look at the updated strengths-of-schedule when singling out your targeted players, and take note of fantasy playoff angles.
I don’t want to focus too much on that, but another common-sense indicator is to follow the money in all leagues. Will the players be RB1 on their team? Probably not. But does their contract with a new team speak to how the franchise thinks of him? It certainly does. They are going to get opportunities for consistent touches, and with consistency comes more opportunities for “boom” outputs some weeks.
Double the upside by the fact that you are also drafting a handcuff-plus situation. A player is not wasting space on your roster — he’s already playing, and his value skyrockets in case of an injury.
The entire Giants team is on the field as Cam Skattebo is about to be taken off on the cart. A gruesome ankle injury. Jaxson Dart is very very upset. #NYGvsPHI pic.twitter.com/OhAVozjfqX
— Quay L.Jones🦅 #FlyEaglesFly SBLIX CHAMPIONS!! (@QuayLJones3) October 26, 2025
In 2025, 14 backs missed at least seven games or suffered a season-ending injury. That is by far the most in the last 10 years, and the position saw an uptick in ACL injuries while the rest of the league saw fewer.
With that in mind, here are five dual-upside running backs to grab in your quest for a best ball crown. Let’s go.
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Who to Draft? Follow the Money
Note: The ADPs listed are taken directly from NFFC (PPR) formats
Kenneth Gainwell, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We may as well start with the biggest prize of all. Many managers are already looking for him when he pops up in the ADP rankings of whichever platform they are drafting on. To get Kenneth Gainwell onto your best ball roster, some planning may be in order. His ADP is sure to continue gaining momentum, but he can currently be had for a song at RB38 in NFFC Best Ball (mid-late Round 8) with an average ADP of about 96 in 12-team leagues at 1.0 PPR.
RB38 would suggest that he’s a top handcuff, but if you follow the money trail, Tampa signed Gainwell for 2 years at $14 million, with nearly $10 million of that guaranteed. For a veteran on his third team, that is starter money.
Throwback Touchdown 🏈
Aaron Rodgers‘ 45-Yard Passing Touchdown to Kenneth Gainwell against the Lions in 2025!
One of the miraculous touchdown of the season!
Video: NFL pic.twitter.com/l2jtZUeEi9
— NFL Touchdowns (@TheNFLTouchdown) July 20, 2026
Bucky Irving has had several issues of late, including a bum foot, but it was a shoulder subluxation that kept delaying his progress. He had offseason shoulder surgery, but shoulder injuries are tricky, and one wrong move could put him back on the sidelines as a spectator. Hence, the significant signing of Gainwell, who is an inch shorter than Irving but packs 10 more pounds.
Gainwell finished as RB16 last season in Pittsburgh, besting the starter Jaylen Warren, who finished RB17. There is no reason to expect anything but more of the same in Tampa Bay, which ranked No.13 in pace of play. Gainwell is an excellent blocker, and Irving is not. Gainwell is currently being drafted as a handcuff, 20 ranks lower than his RB16 finish. The money given to him is all you need to know in Tampa. Teams don’t pony up $14 million unless he’s a big part of the plan. Adjust your rankings.
Tyler Allgeier, Arizona Cardinals
Fantasy managers of both Tyler Allgeier and Jeremiyah Love are wringing their hands over the situation, and rightfully so. Although Allgeier signed with Arizona nearly a month before the draft, only a fool would think the Cardinals did not already have an inkling that they might draft Love at No. 3 overall. It was most certainly not a knee-jerk draft day decision.
This lends even more credence to Love managers feeling like he might get the “Bijan treatment” when Allgeier siphoned carries from Bijan Robinson in his rookie year. There’s a significant paper trail for why that could be, and that paper carries the faces of dead presidents. Arizona (again, knowing that Love was a possibility) brought $12.25 million to the table. The two-year deal features $8 million guaranteed and an additional $2 million per season in incentives.
Allgeier is one of the premier pass-blocking backs in the NFL and has top-notch hands out of the backfield. That alone should suggest, at the very least, he’ll be incredibly active on passing downs. Allgeier scored an 81/100 by PFF. In college, Jeremiyah Love scored between 50-55 in his best season.
Love is, of course, a rookie. No matter the talent level, there are a lot of nuances in the playbook that often slow a rookie’s breakthrough. There is also an adage that goes, “In free agency, teams do what they want to do. In the draft, teams do what they have to do.
Falcons backfield splits inside the 10-yard line in 2025:
Tyler Allgeier: 48% snaps, 75% attempts, 4 TDs
Bijan Robinson: 58% snaps, 25% attempts, 0 TDsI realize it sucks for Bijan managers, but Allgeier has cashed in on his opportunities.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 9, 2025
The Cardinals did not give a 26-year-old a lucrative veteran deal by accident. He’s going to see the field early and often. Allgeier is going off the board in NFFC drafts at ADP off 155 and a nearly criminal RB46. That’s in line with his ranking the last two seasons (RB43 &RB39), but he’s walking into a situation where he’s going to see more on-field action while Arizona doesn’t want to bog down their rookie on an uncompetitive team.
Rico Dowdle, Pittsburgh Steelers
There’s a lot to be said (but often unspoken of) for head coaches’ allegiance to players. Jaylen Warren had that for years in the Steel City as one of Mike Tomlin’s favorites. New head coach Mike McCarthy has no such allegiance as he attempts to put a stamp on the new-look Steelers. He does, however, have a history with Rico Dowdle, who was one of the team’s first free-agent signings this offseason. McCarthy was Dowdle’s coach for the back’s first 1,000-yard season.
Rico Dowdle, Roman Wilson #steelers https://t.co/oIlN5nS41W
— Fantasy Tags (@FantasyTags) August 1, 2026
No one really knows why Dowdle was unceremoniously dismissed from Dallas, but McCarthy was, too, so this is a reunion of sorts. All Dowdle did in 2025 was fill in for starter Chuba Hubbard in Carolina with an explosion of 373 yards in two games (both victories), thus wrestling away the starting gig even when Hubbard returns.
So, what do you pay a 28-year-old, supposedly in a shared backfield? How about 2 years, $12.25 million and $5 million guaranteed? The only players 28 or older on a contract higher are Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and David Montgomery… all unquestioned starters. That’s not backup money for a player of his age group.
Dowdle’s pass-blocking grade is serviceable at 58.2/100, but it’s not overly impressive. Jaylen Warren, last year’s starter, is a top-notch 72.2/100 and thrives in his classic role, which was played by Gainwell in 2025. The writing is on the wall. In the rough-and-tumble AFC North with an aging quarterback, Dowdle should be the unquestioned starter, moving Warren back into his flex role in which he’s thrived in the past.
RICO DOWDLE 36 YARD TOUCHDOWN AGAINST HIS FORMER TEAM 👀😤pic.twitter.com/Cex2YMxxEK
— 1801 Media (@1801MediaCo) October 12, 2025
Dowdle was RB18 in 2025 on just 236 carries and caught 39 passes. His NFFC ADP is between Nos. 82 and 86, and he is being draft as RB32 on the cusp of Rounds 7 and 8. Warren is being drafted as RB27 and is coming off in the mid-to-late sixth round. That is an error, and one could argue that Dowdle should actually be considered in the early sixth or even fifth rounds, with Warren moving backward.
Keaton Mitchell, Los Angeles Chargers
Keaton Mitchell is an interesting case in the “what have you done for me lately” thinking that permeates fantasy football, and the answer when it comes to Mitchell is not much. In 26 games for the Ravens, Mitchell logged just 767 rushing yards and three touchdowns. With Derrick Henry a workhorse and Justice Hill the option in the 3rd-down passing game, there was no reason for him to break through.
Nevertheless, the Chargers went out and dropped $9.25 million on a back with just 121 carries on his resume. Call it what you want, but the brothers Harbaugh talk, and there must have been some reasoning behind Jim Harbaugh lobbying for this signing of a player that played for John, while also throwing $5 million in guarantees at the running back.
Mitchell boasts an elite 4.3 40-yard time, but he’s been clocked in-game at 22-plus MPH. To put that in perspective, only three backs (Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, TreVeon Henderson) exceeded 22 MPH during a game in 2025. Which begs the question: was this signing all about Harbaugh, or did new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel have some say in the matter? There isn’t a single other coordinator who values speed as part of the attack as much as he does.
Undrafted rookie RB Keaton Mitchell goes 40 yards for the TD!
📺: #SEAvsBAL on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/d4RDZpcMkc pic.twitter.com/HlueqI7aeJ— NFL (@NFL) November 5, 2023
Omarion Hampton is a stud and won’t just give up plays. But once again, the team invested in Michell with every plan to use him. He is a home run threat each time his hands touch the ball, and they didn’t pay him to stand on the sidelines. The team gave Najee Harris half that, but only signed him for a season. Mitchell is locked in for two.
Mitchell has the propensity to drop a “boom” game at a moment’s notice, while still being involved in the offensive game plan regularly. He’s all but made Kimani Vidal an afterthought at this point. Mitchell’s ADP in NFFC best ball (PPR) is a startlingly low 158.23, or RB54. He’s being drafted most often in the 13th round when fantasy managers are throwing darts. Throw one at the player the Chargers immediately pursued.
Chris Rodriguez, Jacksonville Jaguars (with a note on LeQuint Allen)
The Jacksonville Jaguars backfield is nearly impossible to gauge at this point. If you believe the fantasy “hype machine,” it’s all Bhayshul Tuten all day. I’m here to tell you that if you keep digging, you’ll find more and more conundrums.
Chris Rodriguez signed with Jacksonville for two years and $10 million. He also got a whopping $6.2 million of that guaranteed—a $4 million signing bonus, and another $2 million in incentives. Rodriguez is a complete battering ram at 5-foot-11 and 224 pounds. His most effective usage is grinding tough (and short) yards, and he has a nose for the end zone.
My coach called this man a GLASS EATER?!?!
When was the last time we had a glass eater at RB? Leonard Fournette?
I love smash mouth, physical football🔥something we’ve been missing for a long time
Can’t wait for Chris Rodriguez Jr to get the pads on!! pic.twitter.com/l4yo5LbCkw
— J-Villains Podcast (@JVillainsPod) July 29, 2026
His former college coach, Liam Coen, and the Jaguars gave Rodriguez a nice chunk of change to come in and do what he does best: gain yards. He’s a metric darling who ranked second in the NFL in yards after contact, repeatedly gaining 3.5-4 yards after the first his. He’s nearly never stopped for no gain, and his ability to grind a stack box and always fall forward has turned many heads.
Rodruez won’t take touches from Tuten, as he has a pair of cinderblocks for hands. However, the contract, combined with the fact that Coen made him a free agent priority, nearly all but guarantees that he’s likely to eat into Tuten’s first- and second-down touches. Rodrigues has an NFFC ADP of 145 (early Round 13) and is often dismissed by managers as an also-ran.
LeQuint Allen
Although Allen does not qualify as a “follow the money” back, he complicates the Jaguars’ backfield further, and that’s why Tuten’s ADP of 54-59 (RB25 in PPR) is overinflated. As mentioned, Rodriguez won’t be taking many third-down reps unless it’s an extreme short-yardage situation. So Tuten still maintains that advantage, right? Well, maybe.
We’ve detailed how important it is for a back on this down to succeed in pass protection. Tuten logged an eye-popping and nearly record-breaking 10.5/100 his final collegiate season — a colossal red flag. In his first year in the league, that number rose to the mid-30s, but was likely just due to a small sample size.
So, enter Allen to complicate things further. At Syracuse, he posted an 80.7 cumulative pass-protection grade, including a final season (junior) that saw him protect on 130 snaps and earn a 100/100 PFF grade for efficiency in protection while never allowing a hand on the quarterback. In his rookie season among qualifying backs, Allen proved it was no fluke, earning an 80.8.
Regardless of all of Coen’s coachspeak about Tuten this summer, all these signs point to him losing valuable snaps to each of his backfield mates. Getting Tuten at No. 54 overall is fool’s gold. He and Rodriguez could cannibalize each other’s carries on early downs, and neither has any business being on the field for passing downs, as quarterback Trevor Lawrence is prone to putting the ball on the ground when hit.
Allen is the tallest member of the backfield, most agile, and gives up only a few pounds to the smaller Tuten. Tuten may be the “home run hitter,” but in passing situations, Allen is built like a wideout and will have plenty of highlights with the ball in space.
TL;DR Tuten’s hype has everything to do with where he is drafted, and it’s a burnt pick considering other backs in that range. Rodriguez is a piece of the pie worth having in best ball, because a “boom” week for him might only be 40 yards, but is likely to take on 2-3 touchdowns. LeQuint Allen is the easiest slice to get, coming off the board in NFFC best ball as late as Round 20, even undrafted in some. He’s the favorite of your author to end up finishing the season as the starter (how’s that for hot?).
The Road through the Mid-Rounds is Paved with Green
There is a lot of talk about the running back “dead zone” in drafts this season. It seems as though every year one position or another has such a dead zone. The good news is that in best ball drafts the margin for error is much larger. More room for upside, more forgiveness for boom/bust prospects week-to-week.
Sometimes the metrics you need to follow aren’t always overcomplicated, but rather day-to-day franchise moves that tell you what a team is thinking. In this exercise, the metric is green: a lot of plans can be foretold by contracts given to certain players early in free agency. More often than not, it is an extremely advantageous way to navigate backfields-by-committee, unknown starters, and which players are likely to be part of the offensive game plan no matter what.
The players highlighted here just so happen to fall into those areas of the draft that typically leave you to throw your hands up and either take a wild guess or choose the player you know well already. It can be simplified. Check contracts over coachspeak or training camp reps. The money is going to lead to an option you didn’t expect, but can feel good about drafting.
