Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 6

by Edward DeLauter · Strategy

This is the Air Yards DFS Value Index for Week 6!

The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score.

The Best Values

The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each player’s Value Score so as to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.

We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards value plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.

Paying Up

Tyler Lockett – DK: $5,600

Air Yards Value Score: 64.28

Air Yards: 538 (No. 5 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 38.3-percent (No. 9)
Unrealized Air Yards: 172 (No. 35)

Tyler Lockett is the overall WR8 five weeks into the 2022 season. Just as predicted. Lockett has seen over 100 Air Yards in each of his last four games averaging 19.2 fantasy points per game. With a rejuvenated Geno Smith cooking, and the Seahawks’ defensive unable to stop opposing offensives, Lockett can be in the midst of a shootout any week. He is a recommended value play in all formats.

Amari Cooper – DK: $5,900

Air Yards Value Score: 61.51

Air Yards: 442 (No. 19)
Air Yards Share: 47.0-percent (No. 1)
Unrealized Air Yards: 184 (No. 31)

After a Week 4 dud in which Amari Cooper saw only four targets and scoured 1.9 fantasy points, Cooper reasserted himself as THE passing attack for the Browns in Week 5. Cooper saw 12 targets and 137 Air Yards in Week 5 and finished as the WR11 on the week. Cooper is in line to again be the focal point of the Brown passing offense. However, he is set to face a stout Patriots secondary. With this matchup unlikely to shoot out, Cooper is likely best viewed as a value-based cash game option.

Top-10 Value Plays

10) Marquez Valdes-Scantling – DK: $4,900

Air Yards Value Score: 31.43

Air Yards: 342 (No. 35)
Air Yards Share: 23.7-percent (No. 47)
Unrealized Air Yards: 164 (No. 39)

After multiple seasons of being near the top of the Air Yards Value index, Marquez Valdes-Scantling makes his 2022 debut. It likely took some time for Valdes-Scantling to make the list because he is being used in an entirely different way as a member of the Chiefs compared to his time as a Packer. Valdes-Scantling is currently sporting a career-low 11.0 Average Target Distance, which significantly caps his big boom week potential. However, he is also seeing a career-high 6.2 targets per game which have still made him fantasy relevant including a top-24 WR finish last week, Monday night, against the Raiders. With no 100 Air Yard week so far this season, Valdes-Scantling is surprisingly best viewed as a cash option as opposed to the boom-bust tournament option he had been before this season.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Advanced Stats & Metrics

9b) Garrett Wilson – DK: $5,000

Air Yards Value Score: 34.08

Air Yards: 417 (No. 24)
Air Yards Share: 23.4-percent (No. 50)
Unrealized Air Yards: 221 (No. 19)

Garrett Wilson is missing Joe Flacco. In his second consecutive game with Zach Wilson as his quarterback, Wilson saw only four targets and 20 Air Yards. He has yet to eclipse 50 Air Yards with Wilson under center. He averaged 117 Air Yards with Joe Flacco at quarterback. If the Jets don’t start letting Zach Wilson air it out, Wilson should remain out of lineups.

9a) Elijah Moore – DK: $4,900

Air Yards Value Score: 36.46

Air Yards: 427 (No. 23)
Air Yards Share: 24.0-percent (No. 45)
Unrealized Air Yards: 256 (No. 10)

What was said for Wilson above also goes for Elijah Moore. Although Moore has seen more Air Yards with Zach Wilson under center, he is still nowhere near the level of opportunities he saw with Joe Flacco. Averaging only four targets and 60 Air Yards a game since Zach Wilson’s return, Moore is a more attractive play than Wilson but remains an uninspiring option.

8) Drake London – DK: $5,400

Air Yards Value Score: 36.74

Air Yards: 380 (No. 29)
Air Yards Share: 29.9-percent (No. 27)
Unrealized Air Yards: 219 (No. 20)

After a scorching start to his rookie season, Drake London has cooled off considerably in his last two games. He is seeing slightly over 50 Air Yards in his past two games compared to this first three in which he averaged 88 Air Yards a game. Still, London is the best player on the Falcons’ offense with Kyle Pitts nursing a hamstring injury. He should see lots of opportunities in Week 6 against the 49ers and is a great cash game value play.

7) Jakobi Meyers – DK: $5,300

Air Yards Value Score: 38.98

Air Yards: 303 (No. 47)
Air Yards Share: 39.0-percent (No. 6)
Unrealized Air Yards: 104 (No. 62)

Jakobi Meyers returned to action last week and returned as the focal point of the Patriots’ passing attack. He saw eight targets, accumulated 96 Air Yards, and scored 24.1 fantasy points. He remains a no-brainer cash game play, and his 11.2 ADOT suggests a higher ceiling than in previous seasons.

6) Robby Anderson – DK: $4,100

Air Yards Value Score: 41.19

Air Yards: 330 (No. 36)
Air Yards Share: 29.3-percent (No. 28)
Unrealized Air Yards: 192 (No. 28)

After finishing as the WR10 in Week 1, Robby Anderson fell back down to earth averaging only 4.1 fantasy points the past four weeks. Usually seeing only five targets a game, Anderson is averaging 63 Air Yards a game since his Week 1 performance. While some may hope that the absence of the abysmal Baker Mayfield may be a boon to Anderson’s fantasy performance, P.J. Walker has been a reliably below-average QB when pressed into starting duties before. It may be best to leave Anderson out of lineups in Week 6.

5) Corey Davis – DK: $4,800

Air Yards Value Score: 43.20

Air Yards: 460 (No. 16)
Air Yards Share: 25.8-percent (No. 39)
Unrealized Air Yards: 216 (No. 21)

Corey Davis evenly split the passing game opportunities last week with his fellow Jet receivers after leading the Jets in both targets and Air Yards in Week 4. He saw four targets in Week 5. This is the same amount as both Moore and Wilson. He was behind only Moore in Air Yards in Week 5 seeing 47 Air Yards compared to Moore’s 69 Air Yards. At this point, it is anyone’s guess who will be the Jets leader in Air Yards in Week 6, but as the least expensive option among all three receivers, Davis is a fine choice to have some exposure to in DFS lineups.

4) D.J. Moore – DK: $5,100

Air Yards Value Score: 47.20

Air Yards: 394 (No. 27)
Air Yards Share: 35.0-percent (No. 16)
Unrealized Air Yards: 246 (No. 15)

D.J. Moore’s season has gone from worse to outright tragic. While he saw 137 Air Yards last week, he was only able to muster 10.7 fantasy points thanks in large part to Baker Mayfield’s inability to throw a catchable football. Moore’s 59.5-percent catchable target rate is No. 85 among all qualified receivers. It’s unlikely that the Panthers fourth-string quarterback, Walker, will have more success than Mayfield throwing Moore the football accurately. However, I would recommend some exposure to Moore in lineups just based on his talent alone.

3) Marvin Jones – DK: $4,600

Air Yards Value Score: 49.28

Air Yards: 428 (No. 21)
Air Yards Share: 30.3-percent (No. 26)
Unrealized Air Yards: 266 (No. 7)

Marvin Jones finally realized some Air Yards last week against the Houston Texans. He saw 163 Air Yards on 11 targets and secured seven receptions for 104 scoreless yards. Jones continues to be used as the Jaguars’ field stretcher and is in line for another potential boom week against the Colts.

Marvin Jones Advanced Stats & Metrics

2) George Pickens – DK: $4,600

Air Yards Value Score: 52.65

Air Yards: 497 (No. 11)
Air Yards Share: 27.9-percent (No. 33)
Unrealized Air Yards: 285 (No. 5)

George Pickens was behind only Diontae Johnson in Air Yards on the Steelers last week. In Kenny Pickett‘s first start at quarterback, Pickens saw 98 Air Yards on eight targets. He will likely continue to be the preferred downfield threat of the rookie quarterback and remains a great low-cost tournament option.

1) Chris Olave – DK: $5,500

Air Yards Value Score: 100

Air Yards: 754 (No. 1)
Air Yards Share: 41.8-percent (No. 4)
Unrealized Air Yards: 423 (No. 1)

Chris Olave finished Week 5 seeing only 75 Air Yards. This was his lowest weekly total since week one. However, he still finished with 15.4 fantasy points catching four passes for 54 yards and a touchdown. While Olave exited last week’s game with a concussion, he is a smash-value play in all formats if he is cleared to return this week against the Bengals.

Good luck to everyone in Week 6. May all your Air Yards be realized.