It happens to the best of us. You’re cruising through your dynasty startup, and suddenly the players you had queued up are gone. Now, you’re stuck staring at several guys who all carry a similar value.
Who will you go with, having no room for error?
These are always tough decisions. You don’t want to make a bad choice; one pick can shape the direction of your roster for years. I’m going to break down a few ADP dilemmas early in dynasty drafts amongst quarterbacks and running backs, to give you my thought process on which player I’m taking while they’re all staring me in the face.
Maybe the process will work for you, too.
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Draft Optimization: Solve for x, When x ≠ Easy Choice
Choose your own QB adventure
Alright, so you made it through the first two rounds of your dynasty startup. Maybe you nabbed a superstar receiver and paired him with an elite running back. Or perhaps you decided to spend up at a one-sie position and took Brock Bowers or Trey McBride.
In Round 3 of superflex drafts, you’ll likely have three young signal-callers sitting on the board. That makes for a tough decision. Whether you have a quarterback or not up to this point, each member of this trio can provide long-term QB1 production for your dynasty squad.
Trevor Lawrence | QB11
First up in ADP, last season’s QB6 in fantasy points per game: Trevor Lawrence of the Jaguars.
Sunshine was awesome in his first season under head coach Liam Coen’s tutelage. He topped 4,000 yards through the air and finished with career highs in passing scores (29) and rushing touchdowns (nine). He managed all that with an abysmal 65.7% catchable pass rate and 38 dropped passes, which led the league. Imagine if he can dial in that accuracy just a bit and his receivers could catch.
Going into Year 2 with Coen, Lawrence has a ridiculous group of pass-catchers to work with. Drops aside, it’s a solid and deep group. And with Travis Etienne gone, the team might lean on Lawrence more as they try to make it back to the playoffs.
The talent, weapons, and rushing upside are there for Lawrence to have an encore in 2026 and beyond.
Bo Nix | QB12
Bo Nix led the league in pass attempts a season ago. The former Oregon Duck rode that volume to some nifty numbers, throwing for 3,956 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. He also chipped in 356 yards with five additional scores on the ground.
Bo Nix‘s Advanced Metrics
That output allowed Nix to average 18.6 fantasy points per game (FPPG), good for 11th at the position. That was only a small step down from his rookie season, when he averaged 19.4 FPPG and finished as the QB8.
This could be a banner season for Nix as Denver sets its sights on a Super Bowl. He just got a new, shiny toy in Jaylen Waddle (MIA), and coach Sean Payton is giving up playcalling duties to Davis Webb so they can speed up their pace of play, which ranked 30th last year.
All signs point to another QB1 finish for Nix in 2026.
Brock Purdy | QB13
Last, but certainly not least, is “Mr. No-Longer-Irrelevant,” Brock Purdy. He only played in nine games because of a turf toe injury, but he balled out when on the field. Purdy finished as the QB5 on a per-game basis, averaging 20.8 fantasy points.
One big note: Purdy was first in expected fantasy points per game (20.6) — always a big indicator of an elite player and not simply good luck or unsustainable efficiency.
This offseason, the 49ers got him a gift in the form of future Hall of Famer Mike Evans, who will help open up the offense and give Purdy a massive target downfield and in the end zone. A top-flight fantasy season for Purdy is on the table if he and his weapons can stay healthy.
After Comparison
I’m going with Purdy out of this group. Since becoming a starter, he’s displayed high-level consistency and upside. Since 2023, only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts have averaged more FPPG. That’s some elite company.
Brock Purdy‘s Season Stats Since 2023
Purdy is young; only 26 years old, has a long-term contract, and is tied to one of the best offensive minds in football in Kyle Shanahan. If all three are on the board, I’m taking the man from San Fran.
Cool Runnings
You’re a few rounds in, and decide it’s time to add some firepower to your running back room. If you draft like me, you probably don’t have a running back yet. I like to focus on quarterbacks and receivers early in dynasty startups, but this is the range where I’ll start considering my first one.
In the fourth round, there’s a handful of ball carriers who all offer something special. Let’s break it down and discuss who I would take.
Christian McCaffrey | RB9
Last season’s fantasy RB1 is fairly easy to figure out. If Christian McCaffrey stays healthy and plays a full season, he’ll finish as a top-two back. He’s done that in every healthy campaign since 2018, his second year in the league.
But with McCaffrey, there’s always a risk he breaks down and misses a huge chunk of time. That’s happened three times, including twice in years directly after he led the NFL in touches.
Well, I hate to report it, but McCaffrey’s 450 touches in 2025 — if you include the playoffs — led all backs by a wide margin. He’s one more big season from becoming the fourth back in history with four seasons over 2,000 yards from scrimmage, and now has 2,453 career touches (including playoffs). That’s an unsettling amount of mileage.
Christian McCaffrey‘s 2025 Efficiency Metrics
His rushing efficiency cratered last year, but he remained a dangerous receiving weapon out of the backfield — maybe the best in NFL history, as he is at or near the top of every running back receiving category. McCaffrey reeled in 102 receptions, marking the third time over the century mark, and was second among all running backs in yards per route run in 2025 (1.96).
The 49ers have a small window to make a Super Bowl with this aging roster, so Shanahan is going to continue riding McCaffrey for as long as the wheels stay on. If he’s playing, McCaffrey is a weekly cheat code. You just have to pray he bucks recent history and stays on the field.
Chase Brown | RB10
For the first two months of last season, Chase Brown managers had to be sweating bullets and cursing at their TVs. The Bengals lost Joe Burrow early on, and Brown was borderline unplayable. From Weeks 1-7, he was the RB31 overall and averaged just 9.8 FPPG.
A switch flipped in Week 8, though, and the light came on for Brown. From that point on, he was the RB4 behind only Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Not too shabby.
Chase Brown averages 17.1 FPTS per game in games that Joe Burrow starts 🔥pic.twitter.com/VvsXzP0I81
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) July 27, 2026
This season, Brown will try to replicate what he did down the stretch while playing for a new contract. He’s in the final year of his rookie deal and, at 26 years old, wants to cash in before it’s too late.
Contract motivations aside, Brown is set up to continue smashing in what should be an explosive Cincinnati offense.
Kenneth Walker | RB11
The reigning Super Bowl MVP is currently coming off the board at RB11.
Kenneth Walker finally got a chance to operate as the workhorse in the playoffs when Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL, and boy, he did not disappoint. He racked up 417 total yards and four touchdowns across three games and parlayed that run into a $43-million deal with Kansas City in free agency.
Now, Walker is set to be the focal point of the run game and should get plenty of work early on while Patrick Mahomes works his way back from a torn ACL. Incidentally, Mahomes has never suited up alongside a 1,000-yard rusher.
Kenneth Walker‘s 2025 EPX
The Chiefs haven’t produced a 1,000-yard rusher since Kareem Hunt in 2017 and have lacked juice in the backfield for a few years now. Walker brings plenty of that. Last year, he finished first in juke rate (31.7%), third in breakaway runs (18) and fourth in PlayerProfiler Explosive Rating (122.1) — and that doesn’t even account for his magical postseason run.
This seems to finally be the year where Walker will have the backfield (mostly) to himself. Can he keep the good times rolling? We’ll find out soon.
Upon Further Review
In what may surprise some, I’m going with Walker here. He’s the youngest of the three and just got a fat contract in the offseason. Kansas City clearly views him as a major piece of their offense going forward, and he should benefit from playing next to Mahomes for the next few years.
McCaffrey is already 30 years old and close to the end. The fourth-round ADP on him is just too rich for my blood, especially coming off that enormous workload.
Brown has shown spike week potential, but the long-term situation remains unclear. If he doesn’t re-sign with the Bengals, there’s a chance he ends up in a much worse offense next year.
Give me Walker, who offers a good combo of age, contract insulation, and talent.
Wolf Trelles-Heard is a fantasy football analyst for PlayerProfiler.
Follow @DynastyFFWolf
