Third Year Breakout Wide Receivers

PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Tim Talmadge looks at Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers to target in 2025.

A bit of an old trope in fantasy, the third-year breakout wide receiver. For players entering the first couple of rounds in fantasy drafts, we are looking for them to take the leap and establish themselves as the best in the league. For the others, it’s simply making the jump from the end of the roster stash to every-week play in lineups.

Here, I analyze the situation for these third-year receivers. Weighing the different bets and deciding on whether I’m in or out at cost.

TIER 1

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Advanced Metrics

After faceplanting in his rookie season, JSN ascended to WR2 status in terms of fantasy points per game. The Seahawks have now set him up to be the alpha in their offense after trading away D.K. Metcalf and releasing both Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant. Being a target hog is a huge part of reaching a WR1 season, but there are still some questions.

The most glaring of which is whether he can transition from leading the league in snaps from the slot to being more of an outside receiver. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is expected to bring over more of a Shanahan-style offensive system, and there will be fewer three-receiver sets.

Playing on the boundary will lead to tougher matchups, but the silver lining is that Smith-Njigba ranked 2nd in our total route wins metric last year. More emphasis on two-receiver sets would limit the receiver options to JSN and Cooper Kupp. Kupp ranked number 50 in the aforementioned metric.

Verdict: Buying the breakout at ADP

Zay Flowers

Flowers has received 100 targets in both seasons as a starter but has yet to surpass WR3 status in terms of points per game. Mostly due to the Ravens being such a run-heavy team, ranking towards the bottom of the league in pass plays in both seasons. Considering the team has the league’s best rushing threat at quarterback playing with the league’s best bruising runner in Derrick Henry, it’s tough to see a scenario where it changes. The plus for Flowers is that he’s been great at generating points for himself.

In both seasons, Flowers has ranked top 15 in the league in terms of yards after the catch, which helped overcome his low average depth of target. It’s also worth mentioning that his depth of target did make a jump from eight to 10, but the splash connections still leave a lot to be desired. Something that will need to improve for Flowers to make a jump into being a true difference maker.

The other path for him would be stronger usage down in the red zone- another tough bet considering how run-heavy the team is. Those power run packages have led Mark Andrews to ranking top ten in red zone targets every season with Lamar Jackson.

Verdict: Selling the breakout at ADP

TIER 2

Josh Downs 

Downs may be the poster boy for the “just draft good players” strategy, as he’s a total stud but has many hurdles to clear to truly break out. Last year’s starting quarterback, Anthony Richardson, ranked in the bottom half of the league in every accuracy metric. The difference with him in the starting lineup was notable for Downs.

The positive is that the usage has been there. Despite ranking third and eighth in terms of slot snaps over his career, Downs has averaged 100 targets per season. There’s also hope for him to prove he could be more than a slot receiver. In back-to-back seasons, he has ranked inside the top 10 in terms of route win rate against man coverage.

Verdict: Buying the breakout at ADP

Jayden Reed 

Reed is also a league leader in snaps played and routes run from the slot. The Packers just do a better job unlocking his ceiling games, particularly through explosive plays. Last season, Reed ranked seventh in our explosive rating-despite the fact that Jordan Love was dealing with injuries for most of the year. It’s also fun that some of that came through the running game, as he had four games with over 25 rushing yards.

That ability to be a playmaker would point to him being the Packers’ best receiver. The numbers back it up, too, as he’s ranked top 10 in our target premium metric in consecutive seasons. The issue is up to this point, the Packers haven’t viewed him as a full-time player. Even with all of the injuries they dealt with at receiver last year, Reed was locked into his slot player role.

Due to this, I have to be skeptical of the reports that he’s operating as a true starter. That boxes him out of a huge breakout if the Packers carry over their slow pace from 2024.

Verdict: Selling the breakout at ADP

Cedric Tillman

When I hone in on a breakout campaign from a player that has been around the league, there are hints to point to as signs of the inevitable. Statistically, that hasn’t been the case for Tillman. Aside from a four-game stretch last season that I bet you forgot about.

In those four games, Tillman was on the field for over 80 percent of the snaps for the first time all season and looked the part. He bested running mate Jerry Jeudy in opportunities, leading the team in targets and air yards, while also matching his production. Tillman was also able to find the end zone in three of the four games.

Now, the obvious talking point with this mini-emergence is the fact that Jameis Winston was the starting quarterback. We know his history of padding numbers with his YOLO playing style. I can’t deny that it may have helped the receivers post big numbers as Winston ranked fourth overall in air yards per passing attempt. It’s worth pointing out that this year’s starting quarterback, Joe Flacco, actually ranked third.

The other plus for Browns receivers is that the team has ranked top ten in passing attempts per game and pace of play in consecutive seasons despite having bottom-of-the-league quarterback play.

Verdict: Buying the breakout at ADP

TIER 3

Demario Douglas

Douglas was a bit of a sleeper at this time last year. Despite an interesting production profile, the numbers didn’t follow the hype. In fact, he scored single-digit fantasy points in half of his games played.

The positive is that the environment should be much improved. The Patriots brought back former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has traditionally featured the slot receiver in his offense. Along with that, the offensive line should be better, and quarterback Drake Maye has talked about working on scaling back his rushing attempts when things break down.

Douglas’s peripherals point to him being a good fit as a chain mover. Last year, he ranked 6th overall in target separation and is shaping up to be the only starter that Maye has experience with. The issue is whether or not Douglas can fend off his competition. The team signed former Stefon Diggs, who appears to miraculously be healthy coming off an ACL injury. They also drafted draftnik favorite Kyle Williams, who has been a standout in camp.

Verdict: Worth a look at ADP

Quentin Johnston

Often the butt of the joke, Johnston has been pretty disappointing as a former first-round selection. That said, he did have positive showings last year. Particularly in the last week of the season, when he flashed his upside with a 186-yard performance.

New offensive coordinator Greg Roman found a role better suited for Johnston’s skill set. He also found ways to get him wide open in the end zone. The negative is- they clearly made it a point to add more competition for him this offseason. They brought back former Charger Mike Williams, who has since retired, but they also drafted wide receiver Tre Harris. Even if Johnston continues to grow as a player and beats out the competition, it’s tough to see where the volume comes from.

The team wants to be slow and run heavy, and also features a better receiver in Ladd McConkey. McConkey ranked 12th in terms of Dominator Rating and top ten in Production Premium as a rookie. Cementing himself as Justin Herbert‘s best option.

Verdict: Selling the breakout

Marvin Mims

While Sean Payton continues his search for the Joker, he turned Mims into the Riddler last season. Now we sit here with question marks everywhere. Will he continue to play a role out of the backfield? Will he continue to have a major role in the passing game?

Over the second half of the season, Mims was used as a gadget player, and he was extremely efficient. Mims ranked fourth in yards per route run and eighth in yards after the catch. Perhaps getting such success from the second-round pick will lead to a consistent role. However, the Broncos did add more competition at both the running back and wide receiver positions.

Verdict: Selling the breakout

For more articles from PlayerProfiler, check out the fantasy home page – NFL Fantasy | PlayerProfiler – Fantasy Football News & Media

Follow @FullonTLT