NFL

According to playwright Silva Semerciyan, witches can’t be burned. The same could be said in 2020 for Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander. The No. 1 corner on our rankings, Alexander led the position with a 0.0-percent Burn Rate last season. Teams couldn’t find a way to beat him deep, but they also discovered that he wasn’t in the mood to give up much in the short to intermediate areas of the field either.

Jalen Ramsey held a host of the NFL’s best wide receivers in check throughout the season. In two games matched up against DeAndre Hopkins, he was targeted 20 times, allowing 10 receptions for 76 yards combined. He was No. 7 among qualified cornerbacks with a mere 6.0 Yards per Target allowed, while his 10.1 Yards per Reception Allowed was the eighth-best mark. These marks made him a destroyer of fantasy production.

The story to watch for Patrick Mahomes entering the Super Bowl is his offensive line protection. He ended the 2020 season with an 83.9-percent (No. 21 among qualified quarterbacks) Protection Rate, the second straight time he’s finished outside the top-20. His 43.1-percent (No. 11) Pressured Completion Percentage is a slight dip from his 44.5-percent (No. 5) mark in 2019, but without Eric Fisher, the Chiefs will struggle to limit pressure to Mahomes.

Leonard Fournette, aka “Playoff Lenny,” is a prime example of why Matt Kelley doesn’t take L’s in fantasy football. During the season, Fournette’s 66.5 (No. 54) Run Blocking Efficiency rating contributed to his porous 3.5 (No. 65) True YPC average. With improved production on the ground this postseason, will he continue to see a 43.3-percent (No. 18) Base Front Carry Rate?

While Irv Smith will not see that many targets in a slow offense that averaged 34.8 (No. 25) Team Pass Plays per Game, his 25.0-percent (No. 6 among qualified tight ends) Red Zone Target Share was higher than all but four of last year’s top 12 tight ends. Kyle Rudolph will vacate 37 (No. 39) targets when he is released. With 70 targets a reasonable expectation in 2021, and provided he continues to stay involved in the red zone, Smith will become the latest late-round, league-winning tight end.

PlayerProfiler followers know that Matt Kelley and the RotoUnderworld team LOVE Adam Trautman. His rookie season did not see him dominate in the box score, but the analytics and advanced stats were promising. He did not record enough stats to qualify for ranking in many of our metrics, but his +6.1-percent Target Premium and +24.6 Production Premium reveal a more efficient option in the passing game for the Saints than the departing Jared Cook.

Teams should have moved past the whole “taking running backs in the first round” thing. But Daniel Jeremiah clearly thinks his old mate Joe Douglas hasn’t, and that leads to his mocking Travis Etienne to the Jets. You can’t argue that the Jets need to not only improve their backfield, but also add playmakers all over their offense. But I’m not sure his landing with the Jets would do too much for his dynasty stock, even as the first running back to be taken.

Like Henry Ruggs, Jaylen Waddle has shown a talent for flipping the field with a 20.0 (93rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Yards per Reception mark. But his 12.8-percent (9th-percentile) Target Share and 15.4-percent (12th-percentile) College Dominator Rating are concerning for a first-round prospect. As is his Breakout Age, because he doesn’t have one. This selection would ask me to give the Giants, and Jason Garrett, the benefit of the doubt. And to that I say no.

It’s hard to glean too many conclusions given the limited opportunities and a weak Jets offense. However, I’m ready to buy back into Denzel Mims in 2021 redraft leagues and buy low in dynasty leagues. Without Adam Gase as the head coach, it’s stock up for all Jets players, particularly Mims since Gase tends to tank a player’s value. Fantasy managers will likely draft him near his 2020 ADP, so eat that draft value up all day.

Michael Pittman projects as the Colts’ top wide receiver since T.Y. Hilton is an unrestricted free agent. The team also has question marks at the quarterback position with Philip Rivers announcing his retirement. Pittman should earn more opportunities, but temper expectations based on his team being run-heavy and having an uncertain quarterback situation. 

Chris Godwin and/or Antonio Brown leaving the Buccaneers is a guarantee, and it opens a starting spot for a team that averaged 40.5 (No. 10) Team Pass Plays per Game. The next man up would be Scott Miller, who had the year’s quietest 500-yard receiving campaign. Finishing 2020 with averages of 1.90 (No. 34 among qualified wide receivers) Yards Per Route Run and 1.93 (No. 37) Fantasy Points per Target, he’s a great stash candidate entering the 2021 season. 

Not only does Buffalo cutting John Brown make sense financially, it also opens up more opportunity for a younger, better player in Gabriel Davis to contribute more in an offense that averaged 38.9 (No. 13) Team Pass Plays per Game. Chase Claypool is the only rookie wide receiver to score more touchdowns than Gabriel Davis’ seven (No. 19) this season. Not bad for a player overlooked in dynasty rookie drafts because 14 wide receivers were picked before him in the NFL Draft.

We’ve all seen those videos of Jerry Jeudy and his drool-inducing route running. However, he finished his rookie season among the league’s most inefficient receivers. His inconsistent production makes sense when we consider his decent opportunities but lack of efficiency. Sometimes receivers rely on volume, efficiency, or a mix of both. Hopefully for Jeudy, the opportunities or efficiency improves in 2021.

Gabriel Davis’ 2.21 (No. 11 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Target average is unreal given the low amount of opportunities. With Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley all around in 2021, it’s hard to project more opportunities. However, if Josh Allen can prove that the efficiency he displayed in 2019 wasn’t a fluke, Davis can provide sneaky fantasy production as a deep Flex wide receiver.

With Matt Ryan due $40 million and Atlanta under new management, expect this team to have a new look at quarterback. Zach Wilson threw for 33 touchdowns with only three interceptions in 2020 and plays with good athleticism, making him the perfect fit for this potentially high-powered offense.

The Giants have a lot of holes to fill, but here they find a major weapon on Day 1 of the draft. Ja’Marr Chase is an extremely explosive player and would be a dynamic weapon for Daniel Jones. Chase averaged 21.2 yards per reception and had 20 touchdowns as a sophomore at LSU. He would step in as the No. 1 in a weak Giants wide receiver room.

The running back position was hit hard this week. Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara and Miles Sanders join James Robinson in sitting out. Alexander Mattison will fill in for Cook, but hasn’t always looked good when doing so. However, this week he’ll face the atrocious Lions run defense. Get him in those DFS lineups!

The Rams need a win to stay in the playoff hunt, and will be down their quarterback in addition to Cooper Kupp. With Jared Goff sidelined, John Wolford will start under center instead of the maligned veteran Blake Bortles. The move is intriguing, as is Wolford’s player profile. As a senior for Wake Forest, the QB ran for 683 yards and 10 touchdowns. He posted a 10.96 (95th-percentile among qualified quarterbacks) Agility Score. Someone say Konami Code?

Along with numerous opportunities, Justin Jefferson also ranks highly in several efficiency metrics. He boasts a +24.8 (No. 8 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium with 11.2 (No. 4) Yards Per Target and averages 16.0 (No. 9) Yards per Reception. Heading into 2021, he will demolish his past 2020 ADP and likely rank as a high-end WR2 pushing WR1 territory. He made a strong argument as Minnesota’s top wide receiver and the best in this rookie class.

Through 12 games in 2020, Brandon Aiyuk averages 15.4 (No. 17) Fantasy Points per Game on 60 (No. 30) receptions, 748 (No. 35) receiving yards, and seven (No. 17) total touchdowns with a 10.6-percent Touchdown Rate. Seeing the discrepancy in Fantasy Points per Game and receiving production tells us that the high Touchdown Rate boosted his fantasy production. Imagine what his fantasy production would look like if he maintained a similar pace to his most productive six-game stretch over a full season.