NFL

Carson Wentz hasn’t been great for fantasy in 2020, but he hasn’t been terrible. In Weeks 1-3, he’s recorded 15.0, 14.4, and 23.5 fantasy points. Look at his EPA though, and you’ll see that his -22.6 ranks second-lowest of all quarterbacks through three weeks, in front of only Sam Darnold. With three passing TDs, six INTs, and a paltry 5.6 yards per attempt, Wentz will need to step it up if he wants to remain the starter in Philadelphia.

EPA has been added to PlayerProfiler to help you become a more well-rounded football fan, but more importantly, to help you get better at dynasty. Jalen Hurts is a Konami code QB with elite speed and burst, but he’s stuck behind 2017 MVP finalist Wentz. Utilizing EPA, we can now see that Hurts is a great dynasty stash. Not just for his rushing ability, but because the guy in front of him on the depth chart has “added” -22.6 points to his team thanks to his erratic throws and poor decision-making.

Myles Gaskin’s player profile doesn’t scream elite talent, but he’s seeing the most meaningful touches in Miami’s backfield and making the most of them. He has see 47.9 (No. 8 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities through three games, and while he hasn’t produced a breakout game, one is on the horizon. Gaskin has caught 15 of 16 targets, good for a 93.8-percent (No. 6) Catch Rate. He also hasn’t found the end zone yet, which will change soon given the weight of his touches.

On the other end of the spectrum, Mark Ingram’s slow start can be traced back to his unimpressive 21.9 (No. 45) Weighted Opportunities. While has seen six (No. 35) Red Zone Touches through the first three weeks, none came from inside the 5-yard line and they resulted in only one (No. 29) touchdown. He’s also drawn only four (No. 54) targets. This much is clear: Ingram no longer possesses workhorse back upside, and should not be viewed as anything more than a middling RB3.

Kenny Golladay and Julio Jones are tricky this week. The Detroit offense badly needs a playmaker, but in a late-afternoon game it’s difficult to stay hopeful for this game-time decision. Let Golladay ride the pine another week. As for Jones, this isn’t unfamiliar territory for those who roster the Falcons star receiver. It’s a much tougher sit if he does play, but the fear of a donut is a strong motivator. Oh, and play Russell Gage with confidence, if you weren’t already.

The top wideouts to miss this week will be Michael Thomas and A.J. Brown. For New Orleans, Thomas’ injury is clearly devastating to the offense and the aging Drew Brees. Tre’Quan Smith is still a great play, but expect the team to rely heavily on Alvin Kamara. As for Brown, the Titans will be fine this week without him. Derrick Henry will lead the way against a banged up Vikings defense while Jonnu Smith and Adam Humphries (that’s right, no Corey Davis fawning here) handle receiving duties.

Mark Andrews ranked No. 23 among qualified tight ends in Route Participation with a 55.1-percent rate last year. Through 2 weeks in the post-Hayden Hurst era, that rate has jumped to 82.0-percent (No. 9). If he carries over anything close to his efficiency from last year, Andrews will smash in this new role. You’re obviously starting him if you have him, and he is an easy buy-high candidate.

We expected a big season from T.J. Hockenson this year, but the Lions have surprisingly only unleashed him for a route on 70.7-percent (No. 19) of their passing attempts in 2020. Having caught 100-percent of his targets through two games, he might be a sell-high candidate if the low Route Participation number fails to creep up.

Nick Chubb’s fantasy football value should’ve never been questioned after Week 1. Against an inferior defense in Week 2, the Browns offense did what fans wanted to see, dominate. A third of Kareem Hunt’s touches, though, came on the Browns’ second-to-last drive of the game, including nearly 50-percent of his total yardage. Hunt managed only eight touches prior to this. This is an important note for fantasy gamers with Hunt on their roster.

On the heels of a report that he’s on his way out of Cleveland, Odell Beckham captivated fans and teammates with his 43-yard touchdown grab on Thursday night. Beckham paced the Browns’ receiving corps in all major receiving categories as well. He led the way with six targets, four receptions, 74 yards, and a touchdown. No other receiver totaled more than three, indicating Beckham is the alpha in the offense. That’s important considering Kevin Stefanski deploys a run-first attack.

Will Fuller just needs to stay healthy and he will easily put up career marks in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He has played in 14 or more games in a season just once, though he is healthy for now. With his injury history baked into his WR31 ADP, he will pay that off even if he misses time, provided his Week 1 Target Share holds up. The upside with Fuller relative to his ADP is that if he stays healthy, he’s contending for a top-12 finish at his position in fantasy football.

Sammy Watkins again came in hot in Week 1, pacing the Chiefs pass-catchers with nine targets. This is a mirage. However, if Watkins stacks a few more of these games together, we’re looking at potential Flex appeal. In the offseason, it was reported that Watkins held off Mecole Hardman for the No. 2 receiver job. After one week, it’s impossible to confirm this, but monitor him closely in the coming weeks for signs of a usage pattern.

Baltimore is a candidate for regression after a crazy 2019 and normally would have to fall on a power rankings list heading into a new season. However, this team added many significant players on defense and worked to notably improve the unit in 2020. They had a big-play defense, but struggled to consistently stop teams last year. With improved defense and a healthy, sturdier Marquise Brown, this team is primed to repeat its dominance.

The Titans are in the middle of the pack after four consecutive 9-7 seasons. Many tout this team as being upper-tier, but they have never been. The 2019 Titans were the quintessential “heating up at the right time” team. Ryan Tannehill is a significant upgrade to Marcus Mariota, but this team is slowly losing talent and reverting to its 9-7 form. They’re neither bad nor great, they’re average.

Alshon Jeffrey will vacate a 22.6-percent (No. 23 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and 15.4-percent (No. 20) Hog Rate while he recovers from his Lisfranc injury. Dallas Goedert exceeded an 80-percent Snap Share five times from Week 11 to Week 17 while Jeffrey was out last year. During that time, Goedert had four games with 30-plus routes run and finished as the fantasy TE13 or higher in all four.

The Dolphins turned to two players to carry their passing game when Preston Williams was placed on IR. DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki combined for 41-percent of Miami’s targets from Weeks 10-17 last season. Gesicki finished as a top-15 TE in five of the eight games that Williams missed, and Parker finished as a top-24 WR in six of those games. If Williams struggles to perform in his post-ACL season, look for Parker and Gesicki to pick up the slack in the receiving game.

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings have already traded Stefon Diggs away, leaving a 30-year-old Adam Thielen as their only proven commodity at wide receiver. In addition to Diggs’ departure, which will undoubtedly affect the efficiency of that passing game, the team has only two remaining starters from last year on the defensive side of the ball. With a weaker offense and defense, expect Minnesota’s offense to have to pass more this season, especially in the early portion.

While projections still do not have the Ravens surpassing 500 passing attempts, 63-percent of the 43 teams who attempted less than 500 passes since 2011 did increase their attempts by at least 30 the following season. Lamar Jackson only threw the ball 400 times while leaving early in five games due to blowout victories. With more competitive games coming in 2020, and with a now healthy Marquise Brown, Jackson can repeat his fantasy history breaking 2019.

The Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team features Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, and now Mecole Hardman. The combination of explosive weapons and the unbelievable talent/play of Mahomes has led to a mere 3.3-percent checkdown rate. Clyde Edwards-Helaire projects, at best, to be the No. 3 option on this team, but how will he take away from Watkins and Hardman?

We have learned over the years that the number one factor for a fantasy running back is volume, and Helaire does not possess the same volume upside as the backs now being drafted around him. It seems the argument for him is mainly situation-based. DeAndre Washington is there with a similar profile and has already had productive games in the NFL. Darrel Williams could also take away goal line work. CEH should still be drafted as an RB1 for the 2020 season, but Buyer Beware.