NFL

At 6-3, 229-pounds D.K. Metcalf runs a 4.33 (99th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-yard dash, which clocks in a tenth of a second faster than Tyreek Hill. He is the definition of freak athlete. Through Week 6, Metcalf averages 22.5 (No. 1) Yards per Reception, while also recording 377 (No. 5) Completed Air Yards and drawing 13 (No. 4) Deep Targets. Facing a stout 49ers defense and carrying the second-highest salary among receivers ($7,500), he’s an intriguing main slate GPP play for Week 8.

JaMycal Hasty has garnered nine carries in consecutive weeks, but needs to make a living in the passing game to gain fantasy relevance. He’s seen one target in each of the past two games, which won’t keep him afloat. He’s still worth an add in deeper redraft leagues given the overall success of the 49ers backfield. His dynasty outlook trends up too, and he shouldn’t be tough to acquire given his lack of a breakout game.

Aaron Jones has had a stellar start to the year, but it appears he will miss his first action of the season. Though questionable, reports state that Green Bay coaches are likely to hold him out. With Tyler Ervin also declared out, the Packers backfield will be led by Jamaal Williams. Rookie A.J. Dillon will see some work as well. Fellow Packer Tonyan has a good shot to play.

Whoever the quarterback for the Jets is on Sunday will be worse off with a Jamison Crowder absence. The wideout is not only talented, but reliable. The good news for the offense (if Jets fans can find anything), is that rookie Denzel Mims has been activated from IR and is set to make his debut against the Bills. The youngster is exactly what this offense needs, and he should quickly establish himself as a top option.

Through five weeks, Kenyan Drake averages 13.3 (No. 24 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game and is currently underperforming based on expectations and ADP. Last week helped since he reached a season-high 28.4 (No. 2) fantasy points after scoring a 69-yard rushing touchdown to salt away the game. On the flip side, Chase Edmonds averages 10.4 (No. 34) Fantasy Points per Game and is closing in on Drake’s fantasy point totals with much fewer opportunities. 

We might as well let our pet turtle decide on which Rams running back to start because logic doesn’t appear to apply much here. The Rams average 31.3 (No. 6) Team Run Plays per Game, and typically that’s a positive note for running backs. However, when they split up these plays between three running backs in Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers, it messes things up for fantasy football purposes. 

Chase Claypool’s rapid rise among a stacked 2020 receiving class includes eye-popping production and advanced metrics. At 6-4, 238-pounds with 4.42 speed and a 131.9 (92nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Burst Score, he’s a threat to score on any given play. Following another solid outing in Week 6 with 4-74-0 receiving and 2-7-1 rushing, he ranked No. 1 in the PPI for the allotted time period.

Derrick Henry remains the king of stiff arms and 90-plus yard TD runs. Contending dynasty squads should try to take advantage of his age (26.8) and ranking outside the top-12 dynasty RBs to try and acquire him. With Tennessee running the ball at the third-highest clip in the league, Henry is locked in as an every-week start in all seasonal formats. With the Titans facing the Steelers in Week 7, keep an eye on his DFS rostership for a potential leverage spot.

The injury to Dak Prescott is devastating on many levels, but this won’t kill the fantasy value of the skill players. Is backup Andy Dalton some sort of Cowboy savior? Unlikely, but he has proven in the past that when he has weapons (and boy does he have them in Dallas), that he can provide very good quarterback play. Ezekiel Elliott may be a bigger part of the game plan going forward with Dalton, but there should be little drop off with the receivers.

Drew Lock has a good chance to start; he will be missing some weapons, however. With Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon and K.J. Hamler all out for this week, Lock will have to rely on Phillip Lindsay, Tim Patrick and rookie Jerry Jeudy. Being down weapons against a Bill Belichick-led defense isn’t exactly ideal, particularly for a second-year quarterback coming off of an injury. Lock is better off returning next week.

Mark Ingram is a 30-year old running back with a 16.7-percent (No. 39 among qualified running backs) Juke Rate, and Gus Edwards is limited to a specialized role as an early down grinder. Meanwhile, J.K. Dobbins has a 32.0-percent Juke Rate and has run 57 (No. 36) routes, more than Ingram and Edwards have combined. What makes Dobbins’ outlook in particular so promising is that he, unlike most running backs stuck in a committee, does not necessarily need an injury to earn a workhorse role.

Anthony McFarland ran a 4.40 (91st-percentile) 40-Yard Dash at 208-pounds, sported an elite 3.99 College Yards per Team Attempt, and jumped out as a later-round steal in Graham Barfield’s College Yards Created analysis for the 2020 class. On 10 NFL touches, McFarland’s Juke Rate is a gaudy 40.0-percent. In case you aren’t intrigued enough, Pittsburgh ranks No. 9 in offensive EPA/play as of Week 5.

The Broncos continue to pile up the beaten bodies, with K.J. Hamler the next man down. Though Tim Patrick has played well with the opportunity afforded to him, Jerry Jeudy is the receiver to roster. If Drew Lock returns, he’ll do so to a depleted receiver group; so don’t sleep on Jeudy going bananas over the next few weeks.

In what has become rather routine for the Eagles, they will once again be short handed at wide receiver (and tight end, for that matter). Sure, Zach Ertz will get his, but another receiver needs to step up. Greg Ward has been solid, but nothing spectacular in his run as the top guy. The interesting name here is Travis Fulgham. Promoted from the practice squad, Fulgham stepped in and made two big catches last Sunday. Monitor this situation.

In 2020, all but three of the receivers in the top 12 have an Average Depth of Target below 10.0 yards, and all three rank in the top 7 in YAC. One of the top fantasy wideouts is Calvin Ridley, ranking No. 1 in standard scoring and No. 3 in PPR leagues. He currently has a 16.0 (No. 11 among qualified wide receivers) aDOT and ranks No. 1 with 13 Deep Targets. Ridley also ranks No. 7 with 349 receiving yards, but ranks No. 31 with 71 YAC.

On the other side is D.J. Moore; pegged by many fantasy analysts for a big season. The third year wideout comes in with a 12.8 (No. 27) aDOT, having recorded 288 (No. 16) receiving yards and six (No. 14) Deep Targets. Moore ranks No. 40 in standard scoring and No. 31 in PPR formats. While he draws an average of eight targets per game, the 7.2 (No. 22) Target Quality is an issue, especially given his measly 32 (No. 80) YAC. 

A big question mark for Monday Night, Davante Adams practiced in limited fashion on Saturday. In addition to the Allen Lazard injury, this may leave quarterback Aaron Rodgers with a cast of wideouts led by Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Robert Tonyan anyone? He’s caught a touchdown each of the last two weeks, garnering five targets for five receptions including the TD in Adams’ absence versus the Saints. It appears he’s earned some semblance of Rodgers’ trust, which could be huge come Monday Night.

Plenty of teams are suffering multiple injuries, a few nearly decimated at one position. The Eagles, for example, continue to play thin at wide receiver and the injury to Dallas Goedert exacerbates the situation, given he’s out multiple weeks. Greg Ward needs to be in lineups this Sunday, if it wasn’t already obvious. However, don’t forget about Philadelphia’s two rookie wide receivers, John Hightower and Quez Watkins, the latter of which is set to return from I.R.

Carson Wentz hasn’t been great for fantasy in 2020, but he hasn’t been terrible. In Weeks 1-3, he’s recorded 15.0, 14.4, and 23.5 fantasy points. Look at his EPA though, and you’ll see that his -22.6 ranks second-lowest of all quarterbacks through three weeks, in front of only Sam Darnold. With three passing TDs, six INTs, and a paltry 5.6 yards per attempt, Wentz will need to step it up if he wants to remain the starter in Philadelphia.

EPA has been added to PlayerProfiler to help you become a more well-rounded football fan, but more importantly, to help you get better at dynasty. Jalen Hurts is a Konami code QB with elite speed and burst, but he’s stuck behind 2017 MVP finalist Wentz. Utilizing EPA, we can now see that Hurts is a great dynasty stash. Not just for his rushing ability, but because the guy in front of him on the depth chart has “added” -22.6 points to his team thanks to his erratic throws and poor decision-making.