Fantasy Football

Gus Edwards is the next man up for Baltimore going into a Primetime Thanksgiving matchup. Both J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram will sit due to COVID regulations. Edwards has a high chance of being a one week workhorse on the short week with few options behind him and Justice Hill being relegated to special teams.

Nelson Agholor is the WR1 for Derek Carr. It feels wrong to say that, but it has become the truth. In his first season with the Raiders, he has scored six total touchdowns and is averaging 19.3 Yards Per Reception. Agholor is the epitome of a boom or bust receiver, but you can toss him in your Flex and pray for the boom if you are desperate.

Justin Jefferson has thrived as the clear second option in the lowest volume pass offense in the league. He’s the WR11 through 11 weeks. It’s a wild contradiction and he’s done it through explosive speed after the catch (his 280 YAC rank top-10 in the league) and capitalizing on Kirk Cousins’ Deep Ball Attempts (his 482 Completed Air Yards is also a top-10 mark). Oh, and he’s sporting league-bests with 14.1 Yards per Target and 3.20 Yards per Route Run.

Justin Herbert has been a complete surprise since picking up in Week 2, and he set a new career-high with 366 passing yards against the hopeless Jets on Sunday. Herbert has become an elite DFS play every week, regardless of matchup. The matchup against the Bills, fresh off a bye, has the second-highest total on the slate so far at 54 points, and we should stack this game every way we can think of.

At 15.6 (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game, Tee Higgins leads all rookie wide receivers. His 603 (No. 19) receiving yards place him second in receiving on the Bengals and second to Justin Jefferson in the rookie race. Over the last two games, Higgins has seen 18 targets, which is three more than Tyler Boyd and eight more than fading A.J. Green. With Green set to hit free agency in 2021, the Joe Burrow-Tee Higgins combination is an exciting one for dynasty owners.

Philadelphia’s sixth-round free agent sensation Travis Fulgham saw double digit targets from Weeks 5-7. In Week 10, Fulgham caught only one of his five targets for eight yards. Way to dampen the hype. He’s now seen his targets decrease in two consecutive games. During this time, Jalen Reagor, Dallas Goedert and Alshon Jeffery all returned to the lineup. Fulgham sees the biggest Lifetime Value drop for wide receivers, moving outside the Top 50 at the position.

At 6-4, 223-pounds, Michael Pittman has the prototypical size that the Indianapolis Colts lack in their receiver core. Combined with his 111.2 (93rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Speed Score and 10.24 (89th-percentile) Catch Radius, he is a red zone threat for Philip Rivers to target. Kevin King is Pittman’s primary coverage this week and he plays his first game since Week 4 due to a quad injury. King struggled before his injury, hence his low spot on the cornerback rankings.

The Patriots-Texans game has an O/U set at 49 points, and only three games on the slate have a higher projected total. On top of that, the Texans are a Vegas underdog playing at home in a dome. While Brandin Cooks has out-targeted Will Fuller in each of the last three games, it doesn’t matter. Expected to play from behind in a dome against weaker primary coverage means that Fuller is a wide receiver to start in a high-scoring game.

Michael Pittman broke out in Week 10 with 101 yards on seven receptions. His college profile indicates that he will keep breaking out all over the place and suggests he can be the focal point of the Colts passing attack. He posted an above-average College Dominator Rating and is a supreme athlete. His 112.1 SPARQ-x score is in the 73rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers. If there is a second-round pick to be buying on in Indianapolis, it’s Pittman.

Jerick McKinnon is outside the top-30 RBs in Juke Rate, Yards per Touch, True Yards per Carry, and most other important metrics. The 49ers have also shown a general reluctance to get him the ball frequently. When practice squad player Jeff Wilson was on the roster with McKinnon, Kyle Shanahan chose to split the work between them. With Raheem Mostert supposedly on track to return next week, McKinnon will likely continue to be efficient, but on less volume.

Salvon Ahmed’s 21 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown in Week 10 cannot be ignored in the new look NFL that is devoid of workhorse backs. Ahmed is slotted in as the direct replacement for Myles Gaskin in Miami and is an ideal RB2 to help you with your playoff push, especially with Jordan Howard now out of the picture. Don’t overthink it.

David Moore is the next man up in Seattle’s high-octane offense after Tyler Lockett was declared questionable with a knee sprain. If Lockett is out, get excited for Moore, who has flashed big play potential for years when tethered to Russell Wilson.

Heading into the 2020 season with Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor on the roster, Nyheim Hines had become the third wheel in the Colts backfield. Fast forward nine weeks and Hines has 28 receptions and 220 receiving yards (both good for No. 8 among qualified running backs) on a 32.5-percent (No. 63) Snap Share. His fantasy output on a week-to-week basis has been up and down, but Hines has produced boom weeks resulting in Top 5 running back performances.

Jonathan Taylor’s dynasty ranking has fallen and is teetering on the edge of the top 10. Since returning from bye, the much-hyped prospect has seen his Snap Share fall from 35.6-percent in Week 8 to 30.8-percent in Week 9. Taylor fumbled his way to a season-low six carries in Week 9. Sure it doesn’t look good right now given the high expectations, but it would be foolish to panic sell in dynasty at this point.

The only reason Mike Williams doesn’t have more WR1 weeks is fluky touchdown production from Los Angeles role players. Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, and Williams make up 61.9-percent of the LA targets, but only 47.1-percent of the touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Chargers have five players with touchdown rates over 15-percent, only one of whom even has double-digit targets. As long as Justin Herbert keeps throwing dimes, Williams will have more spike weeks in the near future. 

Jamison Crowder entered Week 9 with a 31.5-percent (No. 2 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share, but his competition for targets was nonexistent. With Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims back in action, Crowder now has more than just practice squad players alongside him at receiver, and his Target Share will take a massive hit in future contests. Still playing on the Jets, a diminished Target Share may be the end of WR1 and WR2 Crowder as we know him.

Two of the league’s most exciting prospects faced off on Sunday for a 34-31 thriller, where Tua Tagovailoa pulled out the win over Kyler Murray. Tagovailoa also chipped in 35 yards on the ground, a little taste of the Konami Code upside he brings to the table. Justin Herbert has been putting crazy point totals on the board, and while the Miami defense has been strong, Tua should be a sneaky GPP option in a favorable game environment against the Chargers.

The San Francisco receiving group is in flux, especially with George Kittle and his massive target volume out of the picture for the rest of the season. Kyle Shanahan has the common sense to play his better players, but will he pull the trigger? Richie James is the stone minimum on DraftKings against New Orleans in Week 10.

Duke Johnson is the latest example of why we should be stashing backup running backs this late in the season, especially those who project to be bell cows in the event of an injury to the starter. The fantasy community has waited years for him to have the opportunity he’s been presented for Week 10. With David Johnson yet to be cleared from his Week 9 concussion, Duke is looking at an every-down role in a narrative-soaked revenge game against his former team. You know what to do.

Since returning from a knee injury that cost him Week 6, Curtis Samuel has scored in three straight games and logged two 20-plus-point performances. He’s finally happening. He has seen his recent floor bolstered by carries and rushing touchdowns, and now Christian McCaffrey is in danger of missing this week’s contest. His dynamism will make him an enticing, high-ceiling Flex play down the fantasy stretch.