Fantasy Football

Juju Smith-Schuster; yet a hype train that is way out of control. While there are aspects of his player profile to like, there are an abundance of red flags. Similar to Austin Ekeler, the draft price is too costly given the talent and circumstance. His Best Comparable Player is DeAndre Hopkins, but unlike the former Texan, Smith-Schuster couldn’t produce with lackluster quarterback play last year. It’s fair to wonder if the 2018 version of Smith-Schuster will ever be seen again.

The optimism behind Austin Ekeler, and the reason for rostering him, is his receiving skills out of the backfield. He ranked No. 2 among qualified running backs in Targets Per Game (6.8), receptions (92) and receiving yards (993) in 2019. The issue is his struggles running the ball effectively, raising questions about his ability to be a three-down back. Meaning Ekeler’s teammates, Justin Jackson and rookie Joshua Kelley, will see far more action than most expect.

Targets and opportunities matter for wide receivers. Last year, A.J. Brown ranked No. 47 among qualified wide receivers with 84 targets, only drawing a 19.5-percent (No. 41) Target Share. Yet, he’s the 16th wide receiver being drafted per FFPC ADP data. His low target and Target Share numbers are unsustainable, and it’s risky to trust a wide receiver with a low target share in a low-volume passing offense. 

The main concerns surround the extreme efficiency paired with a team with such little passing volume. Brown ranked No. 2 in Fantasy Points per Target while ranking No. 47 in total targets and No. 41 in Target Share on an offense that nearly averaged the fewest passes per game. The unsustainably extreme efficiency and the opportunity metrics clash, and Brown’s ADP doesn’t reflect it.

At 5-11, 213-pounds, Dare Ogunbowale is a slightly bigger and more explosive version of James White. Both former Wisconsin RBs are featured in their respective passing games, finishing top-24 in Pass Snaps played last year. Ogunbowale made his limited touches count, finishing the year with 6.6 Yards per Touch, 1.32 (No. 11 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, and a +17.2 (No. 19) Production Premium.

Eno Benjamin landed in an explosive Arizona offense that helped three different running backs find weekly fantasy football success last season. The Kliff Kingsbury-coached Cardinals gave high Snap Shares to their starters, with an RB receiving 70-percent or more of the snaps in 13 out of 16 games. Benjamin, whose Best Comparable Player is Duke Johnson, becomes a priority target if the Cardinals again struggle to find a workhorse.

Using late round draft capital on running back handcuffs is a losing proposition. The goal with late round picks is to draft Week 1 breakouts before they become top waiver adds. Avoid straight handcuffs such as Tony Pollard and Ryquell Armstead. Wide receivers are much better upside plays in the late rounds (i.e. Terry McLaurin and Marquise Brown last year). However, committee backs with Week 1 roles that will expand in the case of injury are also great targets.

DeAndre Hopkins goes from being a target hog for Deshaun Watson to being one of many talented receivers for Kyler Murray. While Murray is a talented young quarterback, Arizona’s target distribution and overall offensive output is still uncertain. Top-flight wide receivers have a long history of losing value in the season after changing quarterbacks due to lost rapport. Hopkins still has a WR1 outcome in his range of possibilities, but the risk at his top 5 positional ADP makes him an easy fade.

It’s important not to take the term “Zero RB” too literally. It is a draft strategy predicated on avoiding non-elite running backs, those who see plenty of empty calorie touches but are not true difference makers at the position. When drafting from the back half of the first round, instead of taking lower-end RB1s to try to chase the Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley teams, Zero RB allows our team to be strong everywhere else.

The absolute worst thing we can do is to start a draft WR-WR and then start chasing running backs in what Sean Koerner of the Action Network has dubbed the Frozen Pond tier. This year, that includes running backs such as Leonard Fournette, Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and David Johnson – non-elite running backs being pushed up due to nothing more than projected touches.

Fewer teams are implementing one workhorse back, while more coaches are rolling with committee backfields. This is a trend that has been happening for years now. Coaches call for three-receiver sets at a rate exceeding 60-percent, which has created an inundation of available pass catchers. Still, there are people who wait to hit on a workhorse back via injury while stockpiling receiver early. A completely backwards approach when considering the positional supplies available.

The alpha wide receiver nears extinction. Gone are the days of a Julio Jones dominating their team’s Target Shares. All of a sudden, dynamic receiver duos such as Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have taken the league by storm. The ability to lock up a workhorse, “do-it-all” back is fleeting after the first round ends. Drafting a back that never comes off the field and smashes, such as Christian McCaffrey, bestows exponentially higher league-winning odds than the top targeted receiver in a given year.

2020 will bring an NFL season unlike any other; in turn, bringing a fantasy season the likes of which we may never see again. The teams who are most prepared will prosper. Depth will be more important, requiring a level of research some may find to be “too much.” Despite the unknowns that are present this year, there exists a means to capitalize on the chaos. The additional research and preparation will pay dividends in the year of COVID-19.

Though Jerick McKinnon has been an afterthought recently due to injuries, he remains a 49er and is third on the depth chart after Matt Breida was traded to Miami. Raheem Mostert and the San Francisco front office may have worked out a new contract, but coach Shanahan tends to ride the hot hand. There’s no reason it can’t be McKinnon at some point this year. With upper-percentile marks across all workout metrics, the league-winning potential is still there.

Rob Gronkowski presents double-digit touchdown upside and will return value at his cost. The injury risk is already baked into his ADP. Not to mention he had an entire year away from football to rehabilitate his body and prepare for a return to the NFL. The “crowded” Tampa Bay receiver corps and tight end room is actually a boost for Gronk’s value. It seems counter-intuitive, but less time on the field means less wear and tear, and the targets he draws will all be high-quality and high-efficiency opportunities.

Jonathan Taylor is the second-best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. Many cannot appreciate his profile because the odds of having two Barkleys only two years apart are low. He’s a can’t-miss prospect running behind an elite offensive line in a run-first system. Players cannot miss on the 1.01 in rookie drafts and we draft players for life in dynasty. Taylor at 1.01 is the safest bet anyone can make in fantasy football in 2020.

My wife made me promise I wouldn’t pick David Johnson under any circumstances. Not for her sake, for my own. Can’t blame her; she just doesn’t want to see me get hurt again. I can also never get myself to push the button on Chris Carson. I passed on both in favor of Cam Akers in the fourth round. The potential for Akers to become the lead dog in the Rams backfield, combined with his own ability, give him the upside edge.

I knew I wanted pieces of a Jacksonville offense that’s projected to see a good amount of negative Game Script. With an #SFBX ADP of WR19, I knew I had to take D.J. Chark as the 19th receiver off the board and above receivers we had ranked higher. Still, if I’m going to have an alpha to build an RB-heavy squad around, I’m glad it’s a player who many sharp minds in the industry are touting.

Adam Thielen’s ADP falls because of Minnesota’s run-first philosophy and general apathy towards their quarterback’s skillset. Pass volume is far from a concern for 2020, with data from the “World Famous Draft Kit” supporting an argument for reversion to the mean. Positive regression is coming for a unit with a consolidated target distribution between Thielen, Dalvin Cook, and the tight ends.

The Chargers have 104 (No. 17) Vacated Targets, and Philip Rivers leaving implies fewer looks for Austin Ekeler and more for the receivers. Tyrod Taylor can sustain a WR2 floor for Keean Allen, who is drafted as a fringe top-24 play. In three season with Buffalo, Taylor’s completion percentage never fell below 60-percent, and his QBR was also always above 60. Allen is a strong option in the middle rounds with a high floor in Best Ball.