Fantasy Football

Remaining injury-free to this point of the season has allowed Will Fuller to reach his fantasy football potential. His dominance is represented in his +26.7 (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium and 28.4-percent (No. 18) Dominator Rating. Sidney Jones’ sample size is too small for his stats to qualify among cornerbacks, but his 14.5 Yards Per Reception Allowed is a problematic stat when matching up with a deep threat such as Fuller.

A touchdown in Week 2 prevented Marvin Jones from scoring under 10.0 fantasy points in each of the first five games despite Kenny Golladay missing the first two. Since then, he has scored 13.0 or more fantasy points in both of his games and had his two best showings as it relates to Air Yards. Fortunately for Jones, Minnesota’s primary coverage for him this week is Kris Boyd, who draws the start with the Vikings missing most of their cornerbacks due to injuries.

Two inches taller and 20-pounds heavier than his running mate Devin Singletary, it’s become apparent that Zack Moss is the preferred goal-line option for the Bills. This puts him in the low to mid RB2 range. Josh Allen will continue to cannibalize a portion of red zone carries and the timeshare with Singletary isn’t going away. However, Moss’ touchdown upside is music to the ears of dynasty owners.

Seeing his first career start in Week 6, Albert Okwuegbunam filled in for an injured Noah Fant and tied for the team lead with six targets. He converted them into two receptions for 45 yards. Although his opportunity has decreased with Fant back in the fold, he remains on the field, running 14 routes in Week 8 and catching his lone target for a TD. The landscape of the NFL changes fast. The fourth-round rookie is a high-upside TE stash and player to monitor in dynasty leagues.

Corey Davis has largely struggled in the NFL, but he hasn’t been Josh Doctson or Laquon Treadwell-level bad. He posted 955 yards from scrimmage in his second NFL season. That came on a Titans offense that ranked No. 25 in total yards per game. Davis is a volatile WR3 and has a non-zero chance of continuing to outproduce A.J. Brown in the coming weeks.

Marquise Brown’s usage has been supreme. He has a 23.8-percent (No. 15 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and a 38.9-percent (No. 7) Air Yards Share. The problem has been his quarterback’s accuracy. Unless Lamar Jackson miraculously turns his season around, Brown should be viewed as a boom/bust WR3. As the top-target of the reigning MVP, Brown may have more value in trades than he’s actually worth.

DeeJay Dallas was a top 5 running back in Week 8 with the Seattle backfield ravaged by injuries. There is no guarantee that Chris Carson or Carlos Hyde come back this week, and an every-week role is possible for Dallas regardless. Any running back can thrive when playing in the same backfield as Russell Wilson.

Kendrick Bourne is one of the few last men standing in San Francisco. Bourne caught eight-of-ten targets in Week 8 for 81 yards following Deebo Samuel and George Kittle injuries. Nick Mullens has shown an ability to generate fantasy-viable wide receivers. It is also possible that this offense struggles to put up points in general. Bourne is a fair consolation prize if you fail to acquire anyone else this week.

Jordan Wilkins was explosive and shifty in Week 8, while Jonathan Taylor was anything but. He simply can’t get in gear against NFL talent yet. It’s more trouble that Nyheim Hines is such an effective receiver for Philip Rivers’ game. It’s getting harder and harder to project Taylor to take over the backfield when he’s getting cannibalized so violently.

J.K. Dobbins turned 15 carries into 113 scoreless yards in Week 8. The rookie was patient and exhibited great vision against a sturdy Pittsburgh front, once again showing great efficiency on the work he was given. That’s been a theme of Dobbins’ play all year, no matter how limited his role. He’s top 5 among qualified running backs in True Yards per Carry, Breakaway Runs, and Yards per Touch.

Since Dak Prescott’s devastating injury, Amari Cooper has not topped 62 Air Yards in a game, and now third-string rookie Ben DiNucci is the starting quarterback. With DiNucci under center, the Cowboys have the second-fewest Implied Vegas Points (18.00) this week. Darius Slay ranks in the top-10 with 9.4 (No. 5 among qualified cornerbacks) Yards Per Reception Allowed and 5.8 (No. 8) Yards Per Target Allowed.

Volume is key to fantasy production, but Keenan Allen’s -29.2-percent (No. 97) Target Premium, 7.27 (No. 48) Target Accuracy, and 81.6 (No. 81) QB Rating When Targeted reveal that he benefits more once he has the ball in his hands rather than catching longer passes that defenses fear. While he may see the same target volume he’s become accustomed to, Bryce Callahan’s 1.20 (No. 5) Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target will make it a disappointing performance.

Coming off a No. 4 finish at his position on a Bengals team averaging 46.0 (No. 2) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and with a league-leading 293 pass attempts, Joe Burrow is a suitable bye-week replacement for Deshaun Watson or Kyler Murray. Tennessee’s defense ranks No. 17 in DVOA and has allowed at least two passing touchdowns to signal-callers in every game since Week 2. You can do worse than Burrow.

A bet on Denzel Mims this week is a bet on talent. Mims finally made his pro debut last week, totaling a 97.8-percent Snap Share, seven targets on 26 routes run (26.9-percent Target Rate), and four receptions for 42 yards. The Jets average 37.7 (No. 12) Team Pass Plays Per Game, while the Jets-Chiefs implied point total sits at 49 AND the Jets are 19.5-point underdogs. This indicates the potential for a decent amount of scoring and that the Jets will have to pass to keep up.

While Davante Adams’ offense ranks in the bottom-half of the league with a 36 (No. 22) Team Pass Plays Per Game average, he outpaces every other receiver in the top-12 with a dominant 33.8-percent (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share. Averaging 11.5 (No. 1) targets per game, even in a low-volume pass offense, it’s clear Adams will remain a top-3 receiver for the rest of the season.

In response to the #LetRussCook movement, Tyler Lockett has led the charge among Seattle pass-catchers. While he and D.K. Metcalf are one of two duos to enter the top-12, Lockett commands the higher Target Share. This receiving corps is a consolidated passing tree, with Lockett and Metcalf accounting for nearly 50-percent of Russell Wilson’s pass attempts. Combined, the duo also accounts for nearly 70-percent of the team’s Air Yards Share.

Despite some spotty quarterback play, Brandon Aiyuk is third amongst rookie WRs with 2.28 (No. 17 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Target. Through six career games, he has also outperformed Deebo Samuel from a fantasy perspective on both a total and game-by-game basis. With Deebo out for at least the next couple of games due to a hamstring injury, look for Air Aiyuk’s dynasty stock to hit new heights.

Before activating any panic buttons, let’s refresh ourselves on Cam Akers’ prospect profile. At 5-10, 217-pounds, he owns a 39.8-percent (89th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, 10.4-percent (78th-percentile) College Target Share, and a 108.7 (89th-percentile) Speed Score. Yes, he has a three-down profile. At this point, he’s a hold for those who have him in dynasty. Those presented with the opportunity to buy this talented profile at value may be wise to take advantage.

Ezekiel Elliott will get loaded with carries and targets going forward, but his upside as the primary running back for a Ben DiNucci-led offense is basement-level. A running back will only be as good as their offense lets them be, and Elliott may be playing for one of the worst offenses in the league for the rest of the season. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if he performs like Le’Veon Bell did with the Jets last year.

JuJu Smith-Schuster finally came back to life in Week 7 with 15 targets, but those did not come at Diontae Johnson’s expense. Chase Claypool was the odd man out with only one look in the passing game. Johnson produced as a rookie in the NFL with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges as his quarterbacks. Unsurprisingly, the upgrade to Ben Roethlisberger has been a godsend for him. The No. 1 receiver on a competent passing offense, he has WR1 potential if he can stay healthy.