Fantasy Football

There was much skepticism surrounding Josh Allen and the Bills offense coming into 2020. He finished the season as fantasy football’s QB1. The run-first approach many predicted resulted in the team ranking top-15 in pass attempts per game, and Allen ranked No. 7 among qualified quarterbacks with 547 pass attempts and No. 2 with 84 Red Zone Attempts. Doesn’t sound too run-heavy after all.

It became abundantly clear over the course of the season that it didn’t really matter what quarterback you selected this year. It only mattered if they could run. Jalen Hurts dropped into starting lineups in the home stretch and was the QB3 over the final three weeks of the season, accounting for 238 rushing yards and a rushing score to go along with 847 passing yards and five scores through the air. He would’ve been the QB23 over the same period without those ever-important rushing numbers.

Tony Pollard made good on his shot at a lead role following Ezekiel Elliott’s surprise inactive designation in Week 15. Playing 92.9-percent of the snaps versus the 49ers, Pollard rushed a dozen times for 132 total yards and two touchdowns, going six of nine in the passing game. He was the fantasy RB1 on the week. He gained 22.81 Lifetime Value points to rise from RB37 to RB27 on the dynasty rankings.

With his ankle injury nagging and with high postseason hopes, the Saints opted to place Michael Thomas on injured reserve heading into Week 15. Obviously, this ends his availability for dynasty leagues in 2020. Hopefully a return to form in the post season can help to rejuvenate his dynasty stock. For now, the soon to be 28-year old is among the biggest losers Lifetime Value points, slipping from WR8 to WR11 on the rankings .

Jalen Hurts is a rare high-floor, high-ceiling fantasy asset. The matchup is exploitable this week, too. Up against a Cowboys defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including a three-touchdown performance by Nick Mullens last week, and ranking as the 11th-worst pass DVOA, Hurts is in what #fantasyfootball Twitter calls a smash spot. Cowboys-Eagles have the fifth-highest implied point total of the week as well.

Darnell Mooney has scored in consecutive games, totaling at least a 73.0-percent Snap Share and 27 routes run in each outing. Mooney’s Target Rate last week was 18.5-percent as well. The Bears average 40.7 (No. 8) Team Pass Plays per Game and face off against the Jaguars this week — a defense allowing the ninth-most PPR fantasy points to opposing receivers and ranking as the league’s worst pass DVOA.

Last week, with Rudolph sidelined, Irv Smith set new season-highs with an 88.9-percent Snap Share and 35 routes run. The Snap Share was also the second-highest mark of his two-year career. The former second-round selection out of Alabama is beginning to become a weekly fringe-TE1 option and this development shouldn’t be the least bit surprising.

On the year, Chris Godwin does not have a single game with 100 receiving yards or even 100 Air Yards. With the additions of Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown to this team, Godwin has simply not been able to draw targets in the face of steeper competition for looks. He is one of the hardest players to sit this week, but the numbers simply don’t add up to him being a good fantasy play.

Will Fuller led the league in Production Premium in his 11 games played. He was also top-5 in Expected Points Added and Fantasy Points per Target, more evidence of this stellar pairing with Deshaun Watson. Pretty good numbers for a player often pigeon-holed as a pure deep threat in the DeAndre Hopkins era. Fuller’s reinvention into an all-purpose player in 2020 certainly boosted his dynasty market value.

Couple Jameis Winston’s resume of fantasy success with comments this week from Sean Payton that he is “going to have the opportunity to start the minute Drew Brees leaves,” and you’ve got an intriguing buy-low opportunity a-brewing. For the cost of acquiring Winston, and with how long established QBs stick around in this league, he’s worth a speculative offer at the very least.

Jalen Hurts completed 24 of 44 passes for 338 yards and three scores, also recording 11 carries for 63 yards and another touchdown on the ground in the explosive matchup of Oklahoma QBs. Kyler Murray outdueled him, but Hurts stamped his mark as a franchise player with his furious comeback attempt in a back and forth game. Carson Wentz is a goner.

Bills Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll has been among the best in the league this year, leaning on Josh Allen’s dual strengths and fitting the scheme to the player as opposed to the inverse. Allen is seventh in pass attempts and top-10 in red zone attempts on what was considered a run-heavy team. It’s the ideal plan for a player who gets you net-positive results the more touches he gets, and the Bills are Super Bowl contenders because of it.

Todd Gurley’s phone isn’t the only thing falling into the toilet this week. His dynasty stock has also dropped 17.58 Lifetime Value points and five spots, moving outside the Top 30 to RB34 on the dynasty rankings. Recently landing on the injury report with a knee injury and forced to sit out in Week 12, Gurley hasn’t looked close to 100-percent. Here’s to hoping that he can clean it up and get back to scoring touchdowns.

On the season, Jonathan Taylor sits second in rushing yards for rookies behind James Robinson, but his receiving metrics have been equally impressive, if not more. He leads all qualified RBs with 9.2 Yards Per Reception and a 93.9-percent Catch Rate. Taylor is No. 12 at the position and fourth among rookie RBs with 286 receiving yards through Week 14. He gained 9.97 Lifetime Value points to move up four spots to RB4 on the dynasty rankings.

Jalen Hurts earned his first start in Week 14 and looked like an instant QB1. He is in the upper echelon of all-time athleticism among quarterbacks. In his first start, he rushed 18 times for 106 yards. His rush attempts were the fifth-most for a quarterback since 2000 and his yardage total is top-15 in a single game. He’s the ultimate Konami Code passer and his two matchups to close out the fantasy season are supreme.

Devin Duvernay posted an above-average 32.5-percent (59th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating to go along with his 4.39 (95th-percentile) 40-yard Dash time and 121.9 (53rd-percentile) Burst Score. For teams dealing with injuries in the fantasy semifinals, Duvernay is among the best pickups of the week and is worth a desperation start.

Mark Ingram has totaled six carries over the past two weeks, including zero last week. Meanwhile, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins have split the backfield carries 24-14 in that span. That’s a 36.8-percent carry share for Edwards on a Ravens team averaging 32.6 (No. 2) Team Run Plays Per Game. We’d love to see his 33.3-percent (No. 64 among qualified running backs) Snap Share expand, but it’s clear he’s likely toting the rock when he’s on the field.

Coming off his best game to date as a pro, Drew Lock rolls into a juicy matchup against Buffalo. As good as the Bills defense has been recently, they’ve allowed five passing touchdowns in their past two outings combined to Nick Mullens and Ben Roethlisberger, respectively. The game’s implied 50-point total sit at the sixth-highest of the week. For his best part, Lock has managed a 6:2 TD:INT ratio in his past two outings, establishing strong synergy with Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler along the way.

Jordan Wilkins has seen just two carries over the last two weeks, leaving Nyheim Hines as Jonathan Taylor’s main competition. But a two-man backfield is much more palatable, and with Taylor consistently being the best of the group, his touches should continue to rise. He draws the single best running back matchup next week against the Houston Texans, a team Indy consistently manhandles. It was against the Texans in Week 13 where Taylor broke out, totaling 130 total yards and a score.

The Saints had previously not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 55 games. Both Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders got there on the ground Sunday. Hurts’ read-option abilities helped spring Sanders loose for chunk runs throughout the game, and he finished with 115 yards and two scores on 14 carries. His 82-yard rushing score felt like the first explosive play for the Eagles all season, and his Konami ability makes him a viable QB2 play in the fantasy playoffs.