Fantasy Football

The A.J. Brown train was full steam ahead prior to the Julio Jones news. While the move does slightly hinder his 2021 upside, you’d be crazy to predict a volume decrease for one of the league’s most prolific pass catchers. Brown is the three-legged alpha. When it comes to vacated targets, you should always chase the talent. Alphas eat first. With AJB already earning an elite Target Share, don’t be surprised when he stockpiles 140 targets. 

T.J. Hockenson’s skillset perfectly fits that of Jared Goff, who prefers to throw shallow passes and let his pass catchers do the grunt work after the catch. The Lions have no true alpha at the wide receiver position. Hockenson is their alpha. If you’re keeping track, that makes his situation similar to Darren Waller’s last season. I’m not calling 140 targets. I am calling that Hockenson will be the bonafide go-to target for this offense, and the first read on many plays.

Michael took advantage of the Cam Akers injury news, jumping all over Darrell Henderson in Round 6 after starting out with an Anchor-RB approach. Pairing Henderson with Saquon Barkley at pick No. 69 could prove to be the pick that puts O’Connor ahead of the field. Henderson is now going off the board almost two rounds earlier at pick 46.3, ahead of Miles Sanders, Travis Etienne, and Mike Davis.

Currently going off the board at pick 116.0 on Underdog at QB14, Joe Burrow was stacked with Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon at pick No. 75, off the board at QB7. Feeling a surge at QB, Chris Buonagura reached for the Cincinnati stack. One can only wonder if he would have made it back in Round 8.

With elite efficiency, the only thing missing for Corey Davis to emerge as a top 20 wide receiver is volume. Luckily, he finds himself on a Jets team that should be a perfect storm of opportunity. New York features a barren WR room and young gunslinger quarterback that should be slinging it early and often thanks to a bottom-10 defense. All signs point to Davis finally coming good on his hype and easily outperforming his draft position in 2021.

Continuing to get valuable touches on the ground, combined with increased opportunity through the air as the guaranteed number two target in the offense, can only lead to good things for Curtis Samuel. Don’t let the semi-unconventional way he scored his points fool you: Samuel was a top 25 receiver last year, and should easily be in that range again this year at the bargain price of a double-digit round pick.

In a trade with the Houston Texans, Randall Cobb returns to his original team, which currently has an open competition for the No. 2 wide receiver. A former Pro Bowler, Cobb had the best years of his career as a Packer catching passes from Rodgers. Should we expect him to slot right back in as a top-two receiver for the Packers? The 30-year-old is trending upwards in fantasy, and his relationship with Rodgers suggests that his return is not to be ignored.

Outside of Davante Adams, no other Packer receiver exceeded 65 targets last season. For comparison, Randall Cobb hit 48 targets in just 10 games last season. He would already be the fifth-most targeted player and third-most targeted WR on the Packers. Cobb is a seasoned veteran and has commanded big-time targets from Aaron Rodgers in the past, he has a nice path to getting big-time targets again now.

Like with Julio Jones, the only “logical” debate against Emmanuel Sanders is age. Sanders totaled a 2.23 (No. 15 among qualified wide receivers) Yards Per Route Run clip last season, one of the most predictive stats for fantasy football purposes. He’s not washed. He now joins the Bills, who targeted receivers at a league-leading 74.9-percent clip. For context, the offense targeted backs at the fourth-lowest rate and TEs at the third-lowest.

A bet on Sterling Shepard this season is a bet on a jump in play from Daniel Jones. The Giants offense has 134 (No. 15) vacated targets, or 26.8-percent. With the arrival of alpha receiver Kenny Golladay, the hope is the newly-signed receiver raises the lid of the offense. With Golden Tate gone, Shephard should play more in the slot.

Kyle Pitts will earn opportunity with his skills and Atlanta’s situation, because his draft capital won’t factor in to give him TE1 opportunity. Late-round picks, like Brevin Jordan, could outperform their draft capital based on situation. Draft capital won’t impact them negatively. However, rookie TEs in general hardly make redraft or Best Ball impacts in their rookie seasons. Don’t bother studying 2021 rookie TEs outside of Pitts for redraft and Best Ball formats.

Early round picks see more usage and production for rookie RBs and QBs, with a decline for mid and late round picks. There is a similar pattern for WRs, but with a lesser usage and production decline in later rounds. Trey Sermon will have a greater decline from Najee Harris than Dyami Brown from Kadarius Toney. For TEs, draft capital does not matter, it is rare that multiple rookie TEs will even break a top-15 TE mark.

You want Weighted Opportunities. You want target after target funneled to your running back. Last year David Johnson had 160.4 (No. 26 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities. If any of the three Texans running backs take opportunities away, it will be those of the low weighted opportunities. If they use him the same way they used him in Weeks 15-17, we may see an efficiency explosion.

High-scoring offenses typically house the running backs we desire most in fantasy, especially in the first two rounds. However, there are outliers such as David Montgomery, James Robinson, and Antonio Gibson. But are they really outliers? 30-percent of the running backs inside the top 15 were on bottom-10 offenses. Seems it might be better to be on a bad offense and be a focal point, than be in a mediocre offense and be a secondary or tertiary piece. 

Myles Gaskin flashed his PPR ability in Week 1 and beyond with 16.4 (No. 10 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game through 10 games. Although he struggled with efficiency, evidenced by his 5.3 (No. 20) Yards Per Touch and +0.9 (No. 38) Production Premium, he lacks much competition in the Miami backfield outside of Salvon Ahmed. Fantasy managers going with a zero-RB type build should target him at his ADP.

In eight games in 2020, Antonio Brown ranked inside the top-24 at wide receiver with a 14.6 (No. 23) Fantasy Points Per Game average. Will Tom Brady continue to pass a ton heading into his 22nd season? Sure, and the Underdog ADP of 79.9 makes Brown the 33rd WR off the board. If the passing opportunities remain high, he can exceed his ADP and provide WR2 type numbers more often than not.

Carson Wentz’ injury provides the perfect excuse for the Colts to toss the 2021 season, maintain the roster, and look forward to 2022. Jacob Eason is projected to begin the season as the starting quarterback, and Wentz’ chance of having an efficient 2021 plummets. Even when he returns, there’s a strong chance his foot injury affects his footwork and mechanics. This is a serious problem when banking on a strong bounceback to his once-MVP form. This season is lost for Colts, and fantasy expectations should be throttled across the board.

T.Y. Hilton’s ADP will freefall due to his age, but he still offers a decent fantasy floor. He can be a “safe” late teens pick in Best Ball. For redraft leagues, his lack of upside makes him a soft Flex option. The chance of a Michael Pittman breakout puts his workload at risk, and poor offensive efficiency lowers his touchdown upside. Hilton should be valued as a fringe WR6 with many reasons to see a decline. Don’t bet on a full on breakout for Pittman this year, but expect him to eat into Hilton’s workload.

Adam Gase was a poor head coach. He has a proven record of misusing and suppressing fantasy football production for running backs and wide receivers. His shortcomings further express themselves behind the scenes with poor player management. The “Gase Effect” certainly matters when considering actual NFL outcomes. However, there is no reason to believe a player can break out solely because Gase is no longer their coach.

The New York Jets have been historically bad for decades. Adam Gase was unfortunate enough to enter the fray at organizational rock bottom. Gase entered the Big Apple at the tail end of the Mike Maccagnan era. Maccagnan proved to be an all-time dud at general manager, resulting in college level rosters for Gase in 2019 and 2020. The Jets allowed their bust GM to run the entire 2019 offseason before firing him and bringing in Joe Douglas. Gase was left to carry the bag for a roster devoid of talent.