Fantasy Football

Michael Thomas is expected to return Week 7. I expect him to completely open up this offense and finally give the Saints another dimension they so desperately need. Do I expect them to be high flying through the air? No, but they will increase their passing volume significantly. Finally Jameis Winston can get the ball go to a weapon in the passing game. Once he’s back he will lead the league in target share and be a PPR superstar again. Go get Thomas before your league mates remember who he is.

As historically bad as tight ends have been their rookie year, it may not be enough to derail Kyle Pitts’ breakout. His raw talent is unquestioned but that’s not what will make him productive this season. He has 135 Routes Run (No. 3), 26 Targets (No. 6), 219 Air Yards (No. 6), 6 Red Zone Targets (No. 2). The Falcons are using him and its only a matter of time before his production matches what his metrics suggest. Go get him from the disappointed owner who drafted him.

The Rams are rolling and Matthew Stafford is balling. They face off against the Seahawks and their near league worst defense, which bodes well for the success of fantasy assets Darrell Henderson and Cooper Kupp.

The Seahawks have been struggling to win, and Chef Russ hasn’t been cooking the last two weeks. With the projected Game Script and Chris Carson likely out, Seattle will pass more. Tyler Lockett looks to have another boom week, while D.K. Metcalf draws the short straw with his matchup against Jalen Ramsey.

Chase opportunity, and the production will come. Antonio Brown and Courtland Sutton are two receivers who have been receiving mouth-watering opportunity shares. Both players have posted a 20 point week, but a lack of touchdowns have pushed down their value.

Chase Edmonds is the buy of the week. He’s efficient, consistent, and the clear number one back on a team that has the league’s number one Game Script. James Conner is dust. Don’t let a few touchdowns scare you away from a PPR RB1.

David Montgomery is week to week with a knee injury. Damien Williams (provided he is good to go with a thigh bruise) should step right into a high-volume role in the Bears offense. Williams has had fantasy success and is a two-way threat that should play on passing downs and see the goal-line work. We do not know how long Montgomery will be out. Williams should be a very hot addition this week and should be very useful in the short term, and potentially longer. 

Dawson Knox appears to be this year’s Robert Tonyan. The third-year player now has caught four TD passes, including two this past weekend in the Bills 40-0 rout of Houston. Knox should be viewed as a TE1 moving forward. He is one of the Bills’ best red zone threats and is coming off a season-high eight targets.  

Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs will certainly get his fair share, but Emmanuel Sanders behind him is in line to eat on this generally pass-heavy Bills team. Sanders had 6 (No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) Deep Targets and 335 (No. 8) Air Yards entering Week 4. Josh Allen likes to air it out, so expect Sanders to see plenty of run in what should be another high scoring affair Sunday night.

Pat Freiermuth and Eric Ebron only have a combined 19 targets out of Big Ben’s 170 pass attempts through four weeks. The Broncos, outside of five receptions to Mark Andrews last week, have not allowed more than three receptions to a tight end group so far this season. Freiermuth will have a hard time breaking out in Week 5 facing a good secondary with a small Target Share.

A bet on volume is a shaky bet. But Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ran a route on 82-percent of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks last week. Now, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are out. After the Jets this week, the second-year WR has the Jaguars on tap. That Jaguars defense rank third-to-last in Pass DVOA. I’d flex Westbrook-Ikhine in both contests. Brown and Jones are no bets to make it back for Week 5. Let’s stash the Titans’ No. 1 WR for the foreseeable future before the price goes up.

Kadarius Toney totaled season highs last week with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton leaving the game early. The rookie WR totaled a 67.7-percent Snap Share, leading to 29 routes run. Toney earned three targets, more than in his first two games combined, and parlayed the opportunity into a 2-16 receiving line. While that’s nothing that’ll get the group chat talking, he has a first-round pedigree. This week, he’ll audition himself for a bigger role. And if he sticks, he has a juicy matchup against the Cowboys next week.

Darnell Mooney is inside the top-30 among qualified wide receivers in both Air Yards Share (33.5-percent) and Target Share (22.9-percent) for the Bears. Remember last week when Marquise Brown dropped two touchdowns against the Detroit Lions? Mooney is an equally as fast WR (4.38 40-Yard Dash, 95th-percentile) with better hands (two career drops on 117 targets).

Nelson Agholor has an 84.8-percent (No. 24) Snap Share, 114 (No. 7) Routes Run, and a 95.0-percent (No. 18) Route Participation. Fantasy football is about opportunity and being involved on offense is the first step to productivity. With 6 (No. 5) Deep Targets and a 14.0 (No. 21) Average Target Distance, he has a defined role on offense too.

The words “reliable weekly fantasy starter” have not often been associated with Mike Williams. Thus far, the 2021 weekly fantasy point totals for the fifth year wideout read: 22.2 (WR14), 22.1 (WR10), and 33.2 (WR1). His 31 (No. 6) targets have him second on the team, just two behind perennial target hog Keenan Allen. No longer just a deep threat, Williams gains 12.57 Lifetime Value points to move up six spots to WR26.

Allen Robinson is off to a disappointing start to the 2021 season. Regardless of matchups, his quarterbacks have delivered a 4.64 (No. 71) Target Quality Rating and a 76.2-percent (No. 50) Catchable Target Rate. The Bears’ offensive game plan has produced a league-worst 4.8 Yards Per Attempt. It may be time to worry if Robinson can’t get on track when the Lions visit Soldier Field in Week 4.

The Cincinnati Bengals have a major edge in talent in this matchup. Joe Mixon is seeing elite opportunity metrics and is set up to smash. While Joe Burrow’s lack of pass attempts limits his ceiling, he’s talented enough to support more than one fantasy-relevant receiver.

The Urban Meyer experiment is failing miserably. Trevor Lawrence is struggling, D.J. Chark is still unreliable, and Laviska Shenault is being misused. The only saving graces from this offense have been James Robinson and Marvin Jones.

The Rams are balling right now, and you want to chase talent in those situations. Robert Woods is the talent to chase. His usage has been decent and improving since week 1. Variance will soon turn in favor of Woods and bring him the production we’ve seen in years past.

The prototypical alpha is the most secure profile at the wide recevier position. Allen Robinson fits that profile, and has the target share to prove it. We’ve seen the Bears offense struggle, and Robinson was able to rise above the ash heap. He is the locked-in first read in an offense that will be playing plenty from behind. Robinson finds himself with a soft upcoming schedule as Justin Fields and the Bears offense attempt to grow.