Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims are alphas in waiting, sorry Henry Ruggs. Jalen Hurts is like a more accurate Josh Allen.
Jalen Reagor would be helped by Ja’Marr Chase like Jerry Jeudy will be helped by Courtland Sutton. Trevor Lawrence is the 1.01 in superflex and 2-QB but you don’t actually want to use that pick.
Rashod Bateman is an excellent wide receiver prospect and a consensus first-round NFL and dynasty draft pick. His advanced stats and metrics are great, but does his college career suggest a WR1, a true Batman, to target in first rounds of dynasty drafts? Or does it describe a Robin, a higher-floor, lower-ceiling WR2 and lesser dynasty value?
Bateman becoming a top NFL wide receiver would belie his college performance and would be an outlier. His college performance suggests a solid NFL player, a WR2 or WR3 on a fantasy team, but not what we should be looking for in a first-round rookie pick.
Teams should not overpay for running backs in free agency, but they will. The only real candidate to earn a bumper payday this year is Aaron Jones. You can’t say that he has not been productive or efficient during his time with the Green Bay Packers. Since 2017, despite seeing the 18th-most Carries among all running backs (649), Jones has racked up 3,459 Rushing Yards, good for eight-most.
The splits between JuJu Smith-Schuster’s first two NFL seasons and his last two are quite dramatic. He settled back into his slot specialist role in 2020, leading all wide receivers with an 82.2-percent Slot Rate. Smith-Schuster finished the season with 97 (No. 7) Receptions on his 128 (No. 15) Targets, with a 95.1-percent (No. 6) True Catch Rate. He also scored nine (No. 9) Touchdowns. But he averaged a dismal 8.6 (No. 104) Yards per Reception and a dreary 6.5 (No. 96) Yards per Target.
With Zach Ertz likely out in Philadelphia and Jalen Hurts taking over the reigns at QB, Dallas Goedert has an appealing ceiling. Last season, he posted a +9.1 (No. 6 among qualified tight ends) Production Premium and a +14.7-percent (No. 6) Target Premium. This is a highly efficient player on a team with an abundance of vacated targets and a potential upgrade at quarterback. He’s the perfect type of tight end to target in the middle rounds.
A great example of a player that needs to be targeted in upcoming startup drafts is Rams running back Cam Akers. The Rams showed late last season that they are ready to let the second-rounder roll. With Malcolm Brown likely gone, Akers has only Darrell Henderson to compete with. Add in an upgrade at quarterback, and the second-year back is primed for a big 2021. Oh yeah, he’ll be a youthful 22 years old when the season begins.
James Robinson’s signing with the Jaguars as an undrafted free agent in the COVID year should never have gone unnoticed, especially given the rumor and innuendo that had been surrounding Leonard Fournette leading up to his eventual release. Regardless of how the rest of his career turns out, rising from the ashes of the undrafted to make a fantasy impact when given the chance will at least land him in the RotoUnderworld Fantasy Football Hall of Fame.
Though Ian Thomas has elite athleticism and upper-percentile weight-adjusted agility, two of the most predictive factors when looking for tight end breakouts, it’s always dangerous to overpay for potential relative to prior production or lack thereof. Despite the fact that his skill-set seemed to mesh well with that of incoming quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, his ADP remained manageable all summer, and I was convinced that this was the ultimate 2020 fantasy football value play.
On August 20, 2019, Warren Sharp dropped an article telling the world they were wrong about Lamar Jackson, who proceeded to score 415.7 fantasy points, the second-most ever scored by a quarterback. Not bad for an undersized running back with accuracy issues. Sharp warned everyone in 2019. I’m here to warn everyone in 2021. Don’t make the same mistake with Jalen Hurts that people did with Jackson in 2019!
With a full offseason of first-team reps, passing accuracy that can only go up, and a receiving core that will be better by default, Hurts’ floor is a top-12 QB in 2021 like we saw last year, but the sky is the ceiling. I called Dak Prescott leading quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in 2020. I’m here to say that in 2021, it will be Hurts as THE QB1 in fantasy football in 2021.
At this point in his career, Leonard Fournette will likely share backfield opportunities. With 132 (No. 32 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities and averages of 4.5 (No. 48) Yards Per Touch, and 0.98 (No. 46) Yards Created Per Touch, it indicates he isn’t overly explosive and productive with shared touches. The +5.9 (No. 24) Production Premium gives us a slight glimmer of hope, but he remains a dynasty sell-high after riding the “Playoff Lenny” hype.
After returning from a concussion in Week 12, David Montgomery averaged over 23 touches and 137 total yards per game with eight total touchdowns and 25.7 Fantasy Points per Game. From Weeks 12-17, he finished inside the top-8 each week among fantasy running backs. That’s the perfect definition for dynasty sell-high candidates – finished the season as an RB1, but realistically more of a mid or back-end RB2.
The looming departures of Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson make Mecole Hardman a salary cap beneficiary in a pivotal make-or-break third season. Yes, he had an 8.1-percent (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Drop Rate. Does it matter? No. Watkins and Robinson dropped a lower percentage of their targets and Patrick Mahomes continued to go back to Hardman, who drew a 13.4-percent (No. 54) Hog Rate while Watkins (10.8-percent) and Robinson (8.8-percent) finished outside the top-80.
With the Eagles $51 million over the cap, it’s time for them to move on from the veteran receiver duo of DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery. Jalen Reagor’s 13.4 (No. 20) Average Target Distance mark and 15 (No. 40) Deep Targets revealed that he will be utilized in high-efficiency fantasy point scoring areas. Improved quarterback play would go a long way towards helping him achieve a breakout season.
In two postseason contests, Cam Akers averaged an impressive 22.1 Fantasy Points per Game. He caught all three of his targets for an explosive 51 receiving yards and finished with two rushing touchdowns. But the main takeaway to file in our minds heading into the offseason is that he had become the workhorse in the backfield by season’s end. Across the final four regular season games and both playoff matchups, Akers totaled 132 carries, 561 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns.
Depending on where Leonard Fournette lands, keep in mind that he’ll turn 26 years old heading into the 2021 season. Although he finished 2020 with a +5.9 (No. 24 among qualified running backs) Production Premium, he only totaled 130 (No. 47) Yards Created and a 15.8-percent (No. 53) Juke Rate. We’re riding high on the Playoff Lenny postseason hype, but he’s more of a sell high in dynasty leagues.
Donald Parham isn’t on everyone’s radar. Though his Snap Share increased late in the season, he never once eclipsed four targets in 2020. With Hunter Henry likely out of the picture, L.A. may opt to draft a tight end or add one in free agency. Even so, Parham has a legit shot at the starter spot in a best-case scenario and would make for good depth in the worst case. Either way, the man needs to be rostered in dynasty leagues.
Despite being the fourth or fifth receiving option on a team that averaged 32.9 (No. 29) Pass Plays per Game, Harrison Bryant had some impressive metrics. He averaged 8.7 (No. 7 among qualified tight ends) yards of Average Target Distance and drew five (No. 20) five Deep Targets. Furthermore, he posted a, 88.9-percent (No. 11) True Catch Rate. He’s sure to have a breakout sophomore campaign if given the snaps to operate.
