Fantasy Football

This week’s top waiver wire addition is Elijah Mitchell. The sixth-round draft pick possesses top notch athleticism and was a mega producer in college. Raheem Mostert went down with injury and Mitchell carried the ball 19 times for 105 yards and a TD. Fantasy managers continue to be Shanahan’d and we cannot guarantee Mitchell will be the man moving forward, but there is a chance that he sticks as the lead back moving forward in what should be a very good San Francisco offense. I recommend an aggressive FAAB bid.

When Cardinals are available, go and get them. The offense is explosive, and Kyler Murray looks like the potential QB1 overall. Christian Kirk played over 50-percent of the snaps and hauled in all five of his targets. He found the end zone two times, and Arizona steamrolled Tennessee on the road. A.J. Green looked very dusty. I am hopeful that Kirk and Rondale Moore can increase their targets, and that Green can be phased out. The market could have been a year too early on Kirk, who may finally put it all together in 2021.

Join me this season for a weekly in-depth look at how we at the Enterprise are faring in this, the largest fantasy football tournament in the history of existence. And by in-depth, I mean as in-depth as I feel/am able to. Given my responsibilities as EDITOR IN CHIEF of both PlayerProfiler and The Breakout Finder, you get what you get.

Since I’m fairly certain Ty Johnson is the most-rostered player among this Underworld and Friends grouping (at least that’s what I’d put my money on), it will make the victory lap that much sweeter once everyone discovers that he is, in fact, the truth.

The start of a new NFL season means the return of the weekly WR-CB Matchups article! This season my goal is to bring attention to receivers available in most leagues that can provide FLEX starts to fantasy teams. Also, I want to identify receivers that shouldn’t start despite starting in a vast majority of leagues. My START recommendations are ideal for FLEX spots in 1QB-2RB-2WR-1TE-1FLEX leagues. My SIT recommendations are ideal if there is an alternate candidate to play over the receiver.

Since 2019, Russell Gage has exceeded 70-percent Snap Share in 12 games. In those games, he has scored 12.8 PPG or more nine times. Last season, the Rams went 3-0 in home games where they were at least 5-point favorites. Robert Woods averaged less than 10.0 fantasy points per game in each game. Meanwhile, Parris Campbell’s Hog Rate has exceeded 13-percent in both of his NFL seasons, and his Target Rate hasn’t dipped below 26-percent in a season.

The majority of teams either miscalculated the value of the top players or held onto money for too long.  I was foolish to sit and watch Dadoggin1 snatch up Ezekiel Elliott for 72.9-percent of the projected RB1 value. Learn from my mistake by recognizing and attacking value when it presents itself. Studs and Studs is the best strategy to win in this environment. Yes, Studs and Studs. It is conceivable to build an entire starting roster with two RB1s, three WR1s, the TE1 and a WR1 in the flex. Scary.

A flexible, water-like strategy is the best way to handle auction drafts. Do not try to force a preconceived plan into the draft, but instead, understand the value as it presents itself and adapt to new information. If the room is afraid to spend money, then build a team of superstars. If premium players are flying off the board at astronomical prices, then let the high-upside WR2 and RB2 fall into your lap. Be water, my friend.

The Panthers boast D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrace Marshall at WR. Moore and Anderson finished top 30 among qualified wide receivers in Fantasy Points Per Game last season and possess Speed and Burst Scores in the 75th-percentile or higher. Marshall has an alpha build and will face the Jets’ third corner. All in all, the Panthers receivers are set to feast in Week 1, and they may even be able to help Sam Darnold to fantasy relevance as well.

The Los Angeles Rams boast a top-tier defense headed by Aaron Donald. The Bears, meanwhile, are still (as of this writing) rolling out Andy Dalton week 1 behind a shaky offensive line that lost rookie tackle Teven Jenkins. While David Montgomery surged at the back half of last season, he won’t be set up for success with Dalton and an iffy o-line against Donald and company.

Mike Davis is clearly the RB1 in Atlanta, but Wayne Gallman should be treated as a high end handcuff with upside. Gallman flashed last season in New York, then signed into a crowded situation in San Francisco. When he was cut, he landed in an ideal spot. Is Davis really that much better than Gallman? I am not sure. If Davis goes down, Gallman would step into a high volume role with receiving work as well.

When Washington cut Peyton Barber, Jaret Paterson’s role was solidified. He is a deep league bench spot type player with upside. The UDFA put up gaudy numbers at Buffalo and now is the No. 3 RB to Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic. At 5-6 inches tall, Patterson is one of the shorter RBs in the NFL, but he showed rushing and receiving ability in the preseason. Ron Rivera compared him to Darren Sproles, and the Washington media has compared his abilities to Maurice Jones-Drew.

In a study by J.J. Zachariason, 54 running backs were drafted between Rounds 7 and 15 behind a top-12 running back from 2011-2017. Of those, 32 offered three or fewer top-24 finishes. This means a majority of the time you select a handcuff, you will have three or less useable weeks. That also includes games in which they score a random touchdown, or take over after a mid game injury when you would have left them on the bench.

Taking Alexander Mattison on a team with Ezekiel Elliott allows you the chance to stack hoards of receivers and an elite tight end, with the possibility of starting both Mattison and Elliott should Dalvin Cook get injured. That’s a team others cannot replicate or compete with. Drafting a handcuff to your own running back takes the possibility to benefit from chaos off the table. You can derive only benefit at your own expense.

Tyler Lockett is not your typical small slot receiver, even though he measures in at 5-10 and 182-pounds, since he has 28 receiving TDs over the past three seasons. Seattle looks like a team ready to throw the ball more frequently in 2021, and Russell Wilson is one of the best QBs in the entire sport. To finish as the WR1 in fantasy, a player needs the Target Share, the QB play, and touchdown variance, all of which Lockett has displayed in past seasons.

Are you ready for an A.J. Brown-level sophomore season from a true alpha prototype wide receiver? Like Brown, Bryan Edwards was the total package college prospect but somehow slipped out of Round 1. Like Brown, Edwards wins on the perimeter and inside. Like Brown, Edwards wins with air yards and YAC. Unlike Brown, Edwards only has a converted tight end who has yet to practice as his primary target competition. You have The Podfather’s permission to get excited.

If there’s one thing that’s certain heading into every NFL season, it’s this: Russell Wilson will be hyper efficient throwing touchdowns, and Tyler Lockett will catch a ton of them. Overall, Wilson and Lockett have a special connection when it comes to deep ball touchdowns. At Lockett’s price, managers can construct builds which can protect themselves from the bust weeks, while also being able to take advantage of the guaranteed wins the stack offers.

The argument that Najee Harris takes production away from a Ben Roethlisberger-Chase Claypool stack can be flipped on its head: by adding a talented running back, who’s to say that this offense doesn’t become more efficient, thus granting Claypool more opportunities to produce? We’ve seen direct evidence of this when Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Le’Veon Bell were all elite in 2017. As they say, a rising tide lifts all boats.

When pairing Elijah Moore’s athleticism with his draft capital and production, Tyler Lockett and Emmanuel Sanders are perfect players to look for his floor and ceiling. Moore has shown in college he can be a target hog. His junior season in 2020 saw him lead the FBS with 10.8 receptions and 149.1 receiving yards per game. His floor is fringe WR3 playing primarily outside and his ceiling is high-end WR2 as a PPR monster in the slot.

Size? Check. Early breakout? Check. Draft capital? Check. Terrace Marshall checks all of the boxes that we look for at PlayerProfiler. He has the widest range of outcomes in the 2021 wide receiver class. Is it unfathomable for another LSU receiver to force D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson to eventually take back seats? Marshall’s floor is WR4 and his ceiling is he becomes the captain and produces top-five fantasy seasons.