Fantasy Football

With foot injuries to Carson Wentz and All-Pro left guard Quenton Nelson, Jonathan Taylor’s ADP dropped from a first-round pick to an Underdog ADP nearing the middle of the second round. However, I’ll provide data to back up why Taylor can still finish as an RB1 in 2021. Is his situation much different from 2020 with Wentz versus Philip Rivers? Taylor provided efficient production on the ground last season, but can he replicate that and add in receiving work? We’ll answer those questions and more to help us decide whether we should value him as an RB1 in 2021. 

Jonathan Taylor displayed the ability to provide efficient production in the rushing and receiving game. He ranked inside the top-8 in rushing FPOE. Amongst those eight backs, only two finished with a higher receiving efficiency: Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook. Expect Taylor’s receiving efficiency to improve in 2021, which could translate into a near career-best season. Quenton Nelson and Carson Wentz should return sometime during the season, but Nelson looks like the most helpful piece.

True ‘upside’ is most effectively captured by making positive assumptions in ambiguous situations. Tournaments are won on the tails of your range of outcomes, and the easiest way to maximize your tail is to increase your variance. When looking for a league-breaking stack, we should search for stacks with as many factors of uncertainty built into their price as possible. These stacks have the most room to crush their ADP because the range between their ceiling and floor outcomes is widest.

Chase Claypool was by far the most efficient Steelers receiver on a per-route and per-target basis. If he is entrusted with a full-time role in 2021, it is quite conceivable he outhits his WR26 ADP by a wide margin, and drags Ben Roethlisberger to a more efficient 2021 season. If Roethlisberger provides round 10-12 value as your QB2 drafted in round 16, you benefit from your stack crushing ADP.

Michael Carter likely has a defined role with the Jets, where he will get a fair share of touches and passing down work. In a timeshare or ambiguous backfield, I like to grab the running back with pass-catching ability. If the team projects to pass a lot (either philosophically or due to not being good), that player will be on the field and won’t be game-scripted out of opportunities. Carter has a better chance to be a solid RB2 in 2021 because of his likely participation on passing downs.

According to David Lombardi at The Athletic, Trey Sermon will be used to “soften defenses” as a way to keep Raheem Mostert healthy. He believes that Sermon will start most games but Mostert will lead the team in rushing yards. This does not sound like a league-winning-upside situation that fantasy gamers are looking for in the middle rounds of their drafts. It sounds more like a situation where the young guy is being used to sacrifice his body so that the veteran can shine.

The A.J. Brown train was full steam ahead prior to the Julio Jones news. While the move does slightly hinder his 2021 upside, you’d be crazy to predict a volume decrease for one of the league’s most prolific pass catchers. Brown is the three-legged alpha. When it comes to vacated targets, you should always chase the talent. Alphas eat first. With AJB already earning an elite Target Share, don’t be surprised when he stockpiles 140 targets. 

T.J. Hockenson’s skillset perfectly fits that of Jared Goff, who prefers to throw shallow passes and let his pass catchers do the grunt work after the catch. The Lions have no true alpha at the wide receiver position. Hockenson is their alpha. If you’re keeping track, that makes his situation similar to Darren Waller’s last season. I’m not calling 140 targets. I am calling that Hockenson will be the bonafide go-to target for this offense, and the first read on many plays.

Michael took advantage of the Cam Akers injury news, jumping all over Darrell Henderson in Round 6 after starting out with an Anchor-RB approach. Pairing Henderson with Saquon Barkley at pick No. 69 could prove to be the pick that puts O’Connor ahead of the field. Henderson is now going off the board almost two rounds earlier at pick 46.3, ahead of Miles Sanders, Travis Etienne, and Mike Davis.

Currently going off the board at pick 116.0 on Underdog at QB14, Joe Burrow was stacked with Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon at pick No. 75, off the board at QB7. Feeling a surge at QB, Chris Buonagura reached for the Cincinnati stack. One can only wonder if he would have made it back in Round 8.

With elite efficiency, the only thing missing for Corey Davis to emerge as a top 20 wide receiver is volume. Luckily, he finds himself on a Jets team that should be a perfect storm of opportunity. New York features a barren WR room and young gunslinger quarterback that should be slinging it early and often thanks to a bottom-10 defense. All signs point to Davis finally coming good on his hype and easily outperforming his draft position in 2021.

Continuing to get valuable touches on the ground, combined with increased opportunity through the air as the guaranteed number two target in the offense, can only lead to good things for Curtis Samuel. Don’t let the semi-unconventional way he scored his points fool you: Samuel was a top 25 receiver last year, and should easily be in that range again this year at the bargain price of a double-digit round pick.

In a trade with the Houston Texans, Randall Cobb returns to his original team, which currently has an open competition for the No. 2 wide receiver. A former Pro Bowler, Cobb had the best years of his career as a Packer catching passes from Rodgers. Should we expect him to slot right back in as a top-two receiver for the Packers? The 30-year-old is trending upwards in fantasy, and his relationship with Rodgers suggests that his return is not to be ignored.

Outside of Davante Adams, no other Packer receiver exceeded 65 targets last season. For comparison, Randall Cobb hit 48 targets in just 10 games last season. He would already be the fifth-most targeted player and third-most targeted WR on the Packers. Cobb is a seasoned veteran and has commanded big-time targets from Aaron Rodgers in the past, he has a nice path to getting big-time targets again now.

Like with Julio Jones, the only “logical” debate against Emmanuel Sanders is age. Sanders totaled a 2.23 (No. 15 among qualified wide receivers) Yards Per Route Run clip last season, one of the most predictive stats for fantasy football purposes. He’s not washed. He now joins the Bills, who targeted receivers at a league-leading 74.9-percent clip. For context, the offense targeted backs at the fourth-lowest rate and TEs at the third-lowest.

A bet on Sterling Shepard this season is a bet on a jump in play from Daniel Jones. The Giants offense has 134 (No. 15) vacated targets, or 26.8-percent. With the arrival of alpha receiver Kenny Golladay, the hope is the newly-signed receiver raises the lid of the offense. With Golden Tate gone, Shephard should play more in the slot.

Kyle Pitts will earn opportunity with his skills and Atlanta’s situation, because his draft capital won’t factor in to give him TE1 opportunity. Late-round picks, like Brevin Jordan, could outperform their draft capital based on situation. Draft capital won’t impact them negatively. However, rookie TEs in general hardly make redraft or Best Ball impacts in their rookie seasons. Don’t bother studying 2021 rookie TEs outside of Pitts for redraft and Best Ball formats.

Early round picks see more usage and production for rookie RBs and QBs, with a decline for mid and late round picks. There is a similar pattern for WRs, but with a lesser usage and production decline in later rounds. Trey Sermon will have a greater decline from Najee Harris than Dyami Brown from Kadarius Toney. For TEs, draft capital does not matter, it is rare that multiple rookie TEs will even break a top-15 TE mark.

You want Weighted Opportunities. You want target after target funneled to your running back. Last year David Johnson had 160.4 (No. 26 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities. If any of the three Texans running backs take opportunities away, it will be those of the low weighted opportunities. If they use him the same way they used him in Weeks 15-17, we may see an efficiency explosion.

High-scoring offenses typically house the running backs we desire most in fantasy, especially in the first two rounds. However, there are outliers such as David Montgomery, James Robinson, and Antonio Gibson. But are they really outliers? 30-percent of the running backs inside the top 15 were on bottom-10 offenses. Seems it might be better to be on a bad offense and be a focal point, than be in a mediocre offense and be a secondary or tertiary piece.