Fantasy Football

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s stock continues to trend up. The rookie saved his best performance for last, delivering a career high eight receptions for 111 yards and a TD in Week 17. He finished last Sunday with 35.4 fantasy points (WR2) to go along with three WR6 finishes since Week 13. In 16 games, St. Brown has posted 82 receptions for 803 yards and five touchdowns. He sits fourth in receiving yards for rookie WRs. St. Brown gains another 35.47 Lifetime Value points and 17 spots to climb to WR27.

In his self-proclaimed final regular season game at Heinz field, Ben Roethlisberger threw 46 times for 123 yards and one touchdown. For fantasy purposes, Roethlisberger has totalled just 27.1 fantasy points over the last three games. On the season, Roethlisberger has produced 14.4 (No. 22) Fantasy Points per Game with only three QB1 performances – eight weeks finishing outside the Top 20. With retirement looming, the 18-year Steeler drops 10 spots in the dynasty rankings to QB43.

No longer tethered to Jared Goff, we see the blossoming of a star receiver with Cooper Kupp. He’s always been a weapon for the Rams, but with Matthew Stafford calling the shots, he’s unleashed on the NFL and boy has it been a joy to watch. The Rams also have valuable weapons Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham, making a case for the most talented trio of wide receivers for any team. They will surely make plays, but Kupp is who Stafford looks to, and there’s no reason why he should stop.

The Jimmy Garoppolo injury opened the door for Trey Lance to start. After a slow start against Houston, he finished with 249 passing yards, 31 rushing yards, and two passing touchdowns. The rookie quarterback numbers from the 2021 NFL Draft have been a mixed bag, so it was refreshing to see him play competently. If Garoppolo can put in a limited or full practice on Friday, and with a playoff appearance on the line, the team may prefer the established veteran to start.

The Packers have not only clinched the NFC North divisional title, but also the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams have campaigned to play in this meaningless game for the Packers, but odds are they will sit out a significant portion of the game, if not all of it. For gamers playing in Week 18, or those eager to make DFS lineups, wait for confirmation as to whether or not key veteran skill players will play.

The only fantasy option from this Lions passing attack is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was a league winner for many. His Target Share over the last five weeks? 32.2-percent. To put that in context, Cooper Kupp’s 32.3-percent Target Share ranks No. 2 in the league. For Week 18 and DFS purposes, there’s no reason to think St. Brown will stop now. He’s a strong WR2 play.

It’s Week 18 and the Titans can lock up the AFC one seed with a win. No doubt they’ll trot out D’Onta Foreman, who just ran for 132 yards and a touchdown last week. Entering Week 17, Tennessee averaged 31.7 (No. 2) Team Run Plays Per Game, and Foreman now has three games of 100-plus rushing yards in his last five. Expect the Titans to play hard for the top seed and expect Foreman to be a big part of that against a weak run defense.

This week, the Cardinals are looking forward to the playoffs while Seahawks will try to spoil a division rival’s playoff seeding. Wilson, outside of airing it out against the Texans and Lions, has been a mediocre fantasy QB post-injury, with both his yards per attempt and completion percentage dipping from pre-injury Russ. He does not hold much rushing value either, so do not expect him to be a great play this week.

The Browns can officially chalk up their season as lost. Baker Mayfield is playing through injuries and pumping out inefficient performances, even making Jarvis Landry an unreliable fantasy play. The teams production, as always, is propped up by the rushing duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Both backs are playable in fantasy, but it’s Chubb who has been putting out league winning performances over the fantasy playoffs.

Tonight marks Ben Roethlisberger’s last home game as a Steeler, and this team is not going to let their legend down. Najee Harris, while not an efficient back, has done a fine job of moving the chains and a great job of scoring fantasy points. Diontae Johnson is having a career year and dominates the opportunity and production in the Pittsburgh passing game. Finally, Pat Freiermuth returns from injury and steps right back into his red zone threat / safety net role.

The Cardinals face the Cowboys this week in the game with the highest total on the slate. Despite this, Kyler projects to go slightly overlooked. Since returning from injury, he has two top six finishes but also two finishes outside QB12. The matchup is also intimidating on paper against the Cowboys defense. In the absence of DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk takes on a centerpiece role in the Cardinals offense. Yet DraftKings still prices him below $6k. Take advantage of this yet to be priced-in role change.

Budget stacks are a recurring theme in this series. In an age where daily fantasy gamers are more than happy to pay up to $7-8k for QBs, there’s significant opportunity in paying down to boost the rest of the roster. That leads us to Davis Mills. The rookie QB for the Texans has played surprisingly well this year considering a near league worst situation he’s in. With a collegiate profile indicative of a deep field threat, evidenced by his 19.7 (93rd-percentile) Yards per Reception, Nico Collins has high splash play potential creating a low bar to return value.

Jaylen Waddle has become the focal point of this offense, and he’s done this at a historic pace. The record for most receptions by a rookie is Anquan Boldin with 101 over 16 games. Waddle currently has 96 (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) receptions, with two games left in the year. He is a strong WR2 and should be in all lineups for championship weekend.

It’s trending that we see more of Jeremy McNichols or even Dontrell Hilliard lined up as a receiver, or in on passing situations together to help fill the void that the team has. Nobody on Earth can replicate what Derrick Henry does on the field, but D’Onta Foreman has done an admirable job along with his teammates of creating a patchwork rushing attack, it’s just incredibly difficult to trust them on championship Sunday.

It is Playoff season when it comes to the National Fantasy competitions. If you aren’t currently competing in these national competitions, you are missing out on one of the most fun and possibly most profitable aspects of Season-Long Fantasy Football. We are going to be looking at the “Mini Majors.” These are national competitions with overall prize pools ranging from $150,000-$500,000 for modest buy-ins of $200-$350.

One of the biggest things I noticed when looking through Chad Schroeder’s TFC team was that he used both waiver runs each week. He also commented on both teams about a key player he picked up on those second runs. That is a huge free nugget we got from the best fantasy football player in the world. Pay attention to those second waiver runs. Keep hammering each and every waiver wire of the season from Week 1 until they lock you out and throw away the key.

In the nine games Dalvin Cook has started and finished, he has registered at least 20 touches in eight. He has an 80.9-percent (No. 3 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share and averages 5.0 (No. 25) Yards Per Touch. He was activated from the COVID-19 list on Wednesday, meaning he now has the golden ticket to swinging fantasy title games this week against Green Bay’s second-worst run defense per Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA metric.

Since Week 15, Aaron Jones has 25 carries and eight targets compared to Dillon’s 16 carries and four targets. Jones is almost doubling Dillon in routes run in that span too, with a 29-16 advantage. Dillon still saw 12 touches last week to Jones’ 17, and is as good a candidate as there is to punch in a touchdown at the goal line, but he is not a player that must be inserted into lineups anymore.

Last week, Ronald Jones put up 16.1 PPR fantasy points in place of Leonard Fournette and has had back-to-back games of 2 receptions and 70+ scrimmage yards. Jones is the clear lead back for Tampa with Fournette out and now sees an excellent matchup in Week 17 against the Jets. Expect him to run all over the Jets while seeing a few targets out of the backfield this week.

The Ravens have allowed 100 yards rushing to an opponent in one of their last seven games and allow less than 4 yards per carry. Sony Michel is coming off a huge game where he saw 28 touches. With Darrell Henderson banged up, Michel figures to carry the RB load, but opposing RBs have seen over 20 touches just twice in Baltimore’s last twelve games. Expect the Rams to air it out with Stafford this week, rather than run it up the gut against the likes of Patrick Queen and Brandon Williams.