DFS

Not only has Marquez Valdes-Scantling broken a 90.0-percent Snap Share in three straight weeks, he has a 38.3-percent (No. 7 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share and has drawn 12 (No. 5) Deep Targets. This matchup with the Texans has the highest total on the slate at 57.0, and the Packers have the highest implied team total at 30.25. Gaining cheap exposure to this game is an easy strategy in DFS, and MVS checks all the boxes.

The Titans have been beatable through the air, ranking No. 24 in Defensive Passing DVOA. They have also been incredibly efficient on offense, ranking No. 3 in Offensive DVOA. The Steelers offense hasn’t been pushed much given their elite defense, but this Titans offense is equipped to turn this game into a shootout. That would be massive for this passing attack and for Diontae Johnson’s DFS upside.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s Weekly Volatility score of 6.6 creeps toward volatile fantasy scoring oscillation, but he’s suffered through more bust weeks than boom weeks. Following a top-12 fantasy finish at the position in Week 1 with 19.6 points, he’s failed to reach 10 fantasy points in a game. However, signs of a looming MVS breakout game abound. In addition, his price point on DraftKings ($4,100) offers roster construction flexibility at low projected rostership.

Coming off a two TD performance and his best fantasy outing of the season (27.9 points) Mike Williams’ salary ($4,700) doesn’t match his upside. A poster boy for Weekly Volatility, his 11.7 rating ranks No. 8 and shows maximum fluctuation in fantasy scoring. In four games this season, he’s busted twice and boomed once. With Justin Herbert’s willingness to chuck it, the duo figures to log more dynamic showings. Why not against the Jaguars?

With a clear lead on Joshua Kelley and three-down ability, Justin Jackson sets up well against the Jaguars this week. They have allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs and the fourth-most rushing yards, while being tied for the most touchdowns allowed with nine. With a 28.25 implied team total, Jackson has massive touchdown equity in this game. If the Jaguars are able to push the ball downfield and score like they were earlier in this season, this matchup has major shootout potential.

In the prior two games that Raheem Mostert missed, Jerick McKinnon averaged 19 touches for 87 scrimmage yards and scored in both. His efficiency from earlier this season has cooled off a bit, but that was expected on the increased volume. He shouldn’t catch much ownership this week. People may be concerned about JaMycal Hasty and a “bad” matchup with the Patriots, but that makes him a solid tournament option.

The Week 7 matchup with Seattle makes for the perfect setting for a volatile playmaker like Christian Kirk to go off. The Cardinals are 3.5-point underdogs in a game with a 55.5 point total over/under. The Seahawks have allowed 64.2 Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers this season. The next closest team is the Vikings at 49.3. Despite all this, Kirk is priced at $4,900 on DraftKings this week. Get him in lineups.

While he has struggled to match last season’s breakout numbers to this point, D.J. Chark’s usage is encouraging and will lead to more production going forward. Jacksonville, who averages 43.0 (No. 4) Team Pass Plays per Game, are a 7.5-point underdog against the Chargers this week. Los Angeles ranks in the bottom half of the league in Fantasy Points per Game allowed to wide receivers. This may be the week we see a big Chark performance and he’s only priced at $5,500.

This week, Justin Herbert draws a Jacksonville passing defense that we’ve been targeted this year. He’ll have all day to throw, allowing him to continue to increase that Money Throw total and deliver fantasy points in bunches. Last we saw Keenan Allen, he left early in Week five with a back injury after scoring a touchdown. Using the bye week to get healthy, he is poised to step right back into his target magnet role as he lines up against burnable corners.

Julio Jones costs less than teammate Calvin Ridley this week. At $7100, Jones is outside the top 5 WRs. He suffered no reported setbacks last week in an absolutely dominant return. Matt Ryan, for his own part, has everything we look for when it comes to passing metrics for a QB. Some of it is Game Script-driven, but it’s not like that will be changing anytime soon. The issue has been efficiency, but we expect that to bounce back to historic norms with Julio back in the lineup against the Lions.

David Montgomery is a prime free square RB in a great spot against the Carolina Panthers. His passing down role has been incredible since Tarik Cohen’s season-ending injury. In two games post-Cohen, he’s run 66 routes and seen 14 targets from Nick Foles. He is primed for the most efficient game of his season and is playing on all three downs. Montgomery projects as one of the best values on a per-dollar basis this week.

Darnell Mooney has officially supplanted Anthony Miller as the WR2 on the Bears in two-receiver sets. Miller still maintains his coveted slot role, but Mooney is starting opposite Allen Robinson on the perimeter. He hasn’t had a signature blow-up game this season, but he has a shot against this weak Carolina defense. For those looking to afford the premium QBs and RBs this week, he’s the key to making it happen.

A familiar face tops the list as this week’s Air Yards ultimate value. We’ve discussed Adam Thielen twice before in this series. He remains the passing game in Minnesota despite the Justin Jefferson’s emergence. Thielen has cleared 100 Air Yards each week this season, finishing with over 25 fantasy points in each of the past two weeks. Facing the Falcons in Week 6, Thielen has a great matchup to exploit and has the opportunity to finish as the WR1 on the week.

With D.J. Chark trending towards being out, Chris Conley will look to take over as the field-stretching target for the Jaguars in Week 6. The last time Chark missed time, Conley saw over 160 Air Yards. However, he failed to realize any of the opportunity, posting only 6.4 (No. 66) fantasy points in Week 3 against the Dolphins. In a potential shootout with the Lions in Week 6, Conley has a chance to be on the lucky side of variance and finally realize some Air Yards.

Jonathan Taylor has 19 Red Zone touches in five games, good for No. 9 among qualified running backs. Taylor has turned those 19 opportunities into three (No. 15) touchdowns. Indianapolis plays a depleted Bengals defense that lost defensive line starters Sam Hubbard and D.J. Reader last week. The Bengals are No. 31 against the run in 2020, and without their top run defender in Reader, expect Taylor to melt this game away on the ground.

In Week 2, rookie Chase Claypool burst onto the scene with an 85-yard touchdown reception. Since then, his Snap Share has doubled from 36.5-percent up to 72.7-percent. In Week 5, with Darius Slay as his main defender, Claypool took the Eagles for a crazy 7-110-3 stat line in the air. With Diontae Johnson hobbled, Ben Roethlisberger will rely on Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has a 73.4-percent (No. 13) Slot Rate and 120.5 (No. 13) Yards After Catch.

Myles Gaskin has come from out of nowhere to lead the Dolphins backfield, but it does not seem that will change any time soon. Gaskin is a legitimate NFL starter and is still being priced in the range of committee backs. Until FanDuel increases his price, he should be a weekly part of winning lineups. In addition, Gaskin draws a great matchup this week against a Jets defense that has been torched all year.

Two things can be true. Ronald Jones will not maintain his 51.9-percent (No. 26 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share with Leonard Fournette returning from injury. Yet, Jones is still a value this week against the Packers, with his cost adjusted to match the lower expectations. James Robinson and Myles Gaskin are better plays, but Jones is a decent pivot for diversity or if their ownership levels are too high.

Will Fuller comes off a “down” game in which he posted 15.8 (No. 23 among qualified wide receivers) fantasy points, but his 34 routes run in Week 5 marked a season-high. He’s also found paydirt in three straight games, seeing a combined 15 targets over the past two. Considering his volatile nature, evidenced by a 8.7 (No. 23) Weekly Volatility score, and the fact that he hasn’t truly boomed yet this season, count me in. Few players offer the kind of massive ceiling he provides.

With his skillset, it’s a matter of time before Darnell Mooney pops off for two TDs and 100-plus yards. At the bare minimum of $3,000 on DraftKings, he’s an ideal upside dart throw with low projected rostership. Carolina’s secondary poses an intimidating matchup, and the Panthers don’t yield a ton of fantasy points. Still, Mooney should fly under their radar and projects to see the most of Troy Pride, the No. 125-ranked player in PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings.