Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 7

by Matthew M. Stevens · Upside Plays

Unlocking the potential of weekly player volatility in daily fantasy football gives gamers a competitive edge. A key metric on PlayerProfiler, Weekly Volatility measures a player’s week-to-week fantasy point scoring oscillation. This article will track the most volatile wide receivers and provide insight on when to deploy them in large-field GPPs. Using matchup and usage data combined with advanced stats to pinpoint the best plays yields the best ROI from volatile players. The focus will be on those highly volatile players with cheap salaries and low projected ownership who make screaming plays with tournament winning upside.

Follow the Signs to MVS

Marquez Valdes-Scantling‘s Weekly Volatility score of 6.6 creeps toward volatile fantasy scoring oscillation, but he’s suffered through more bust weeks than boom weeks. He’s in position to change that this week. Following a top-12 fantasy finish at the position in Week 1 with 19.6 points, he’s failed to reach 10 fantasy points in a game. However, signs of a looming MVS breakout game abound. In addition, his price point on DraftKings ($4,100) offers roster construction flexibility at low projected rostership.

Valdes-Scantling has increased his routes run in each of the past three games while playing more than 90-percent of the snaps. During that span, despite posting a total of 82 receiving yards, he saw 356 Air Yards. His 390 Unrealized Air Yards rank No. 4 among qualified wide receivers.

Check out Marquez Valdes-Scantling on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

Further, Valdes-Scantling leads all Packers receivers with a robust 38.3-percent (No. 7) Air Yards Share. It’s due to his 12 (No. 5) Deep Targets. He averages 16.1 (No. 15) Yards per Reception compared to 11.0 (No. 71) for Davante Adams. He’s the clear deep threat in Green Bay but hasn’t turned in a blowup performance yet. Still, he remains firmly in Aaron Rodgers’ circle of trust, so it’s a matter of time before he tops out.

The matchup against Houston fits the profile of a boom game. Packers-Texans features the highest projected total (57) on the main slate, and Vegas expects a close game with the Packers being 3.5-point favorites. Houston allows an enticing +5.92 (No. 6) fantasy points above the mean to opposing wide receivers. With Robert Tonyan (ankle) yet to put in a padded practice this week, keep an eye on his status. His potential absence frees up more targets for Valdes-Scantling, so fire him up with confidence.

Mike Williams Unrealized Air Yards Alert

Coming off a two TD performance and his best fantasy outing of the season (27.9 points) Mike Williams‘ salary ($4,700) doesn’t match his upside. A poster boy for Weekly Volatility, his 11.7 rating ranks No. 8 and shows maximum fluctuation in fantasy scoring. In four games this season, he’s busted twice and boomed once.

Showing off his field-stretching nature, Williams sports a 17.6 (No. 3) Average Target Distance mark and averages 17.4 (No. 9) Yards per Reception. His 6-4, 218-pound frame makes him a tough matchup for defensive backs, and he’s quick for his size with a 75th-percentile Speed Score. Although his 85.7-percent (No. 51) True Catch Rate leaves room for improvement, his 219 (No. 24) Unrealized Air Yards signal more meat left on the bone  Broken down another level, Williams averages 10 Unrealized Air Yards per target, which ranks No. 4 among receivers with at least 20 targets.


Williams is also tied to a quarterback who’s not afraid to sling it. Justin Herbert‘s 4.8 Deep Ball Attempts per game rank No. 8, and he boasts a 117.4 (No. 25) QB Rating when targeting Williams. With Herbert’s willingness to chuck it, the duo figures to log more dynamic showings. Why not against the Jaguars?

The AFC South cellar dwellers (1-5) have allowed 30 or more points in five of six games. Individually, Williams figures to see the most of Sidney Jones, who ranks No. 30 in PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings. Last week, Jones allowed Kenny Golladay to catch 7-of-10 targets for 114 yards. If Williams’ rostership percentage crests above 10-percent, consider pivoting to his $3,200 teammate Jalen Guyton. Aside from the cheap salary, the rookie boasts big-play speed and cashed in a 72-yard TD catch in Week 4.

Kicked Off the Main Slate Special?

The NFL flexed the Bucs-Raiders game to a 4:05 ET start time due to COVID-19 concerns, and moved Cardinals-Seahawks to Sunday night. DraftKings did not make an official announcement about how that affects their Sunday main slate contests at press time. 

For Andy Isabella ($3,900), it’s not the volume but the quality of his targets that make him an appealing play. Of his 14 (No. 97) targets, 42.9-percent of them (six) have been Deep Targets, and he’s caught both of his red zone looks. Isabella enjoys the No. 1-ranked Target Quality Rating (9.1), which translates into 2.58 (No. 6) Fantasy Points per Target. Target Quality Rating, which combines Catchable Target Rate with average depth of target, puts a premium on deep, catchable passes and discounts short, uncatchable throws. In other words, Isabella’s got a friend in Kyler Murray.

Andy Isabella 2020 Game Logs

Isabella ran a season-low nine routes in Week 6, suffering from bad Game Script in a blowout of the Cowboys. Considering the Seahawks allow the most fantasy points above the mean (+17.98) to opposing wide receivers, Isabella boasts massive upside. With 100th-percentile speed in the form of a 4.31 40-yard dash time, he offers a big-play threat whenever he lines up. Week 6 saw Christian Kirk enjoy his first blowup game this season. It’s Isabella’s turn this week.