DFS

This week, Justin Herbert draws a Jacksonville passing defense that we’ve been targeted this year. He’ll have all day to throw, allowing him to continue to increase that Money Throw total and deliver fantasy points in bunches. Last we saw Keenan Allen, he left early in Week five with a back injury after scoring a touchdown. Using the bye week to get healthy, he is poised to step right back into his target magnet role as he lines up against burnable corners.

Julio Jones costs less than teammate Calvin Ridley this week. At $7100, Jones is outside the top 5 WRs. He suffered no reported setbacks last week in an absolutely dominant return. Matt Ryan, for his own part, has everything we look for when it comes to passing metrics for a QB. Some of it is Game Script-driven, but it’s not like that will be changing anytime soon. The issue has been efficiency, but we expect that to bounce back to historic norms with Julio back in the lineup against the Lions.

David Montgomery is a prime free square RB in a great spot against the Carolina Panthers. His passing down role has been incredible since Tarik Cohen’s season-ending injury. In two games post-Cohen, he’s run 66 routes and seen 14 targets from Nick Foles. He is primed for the most efficient game of his season and is playing on all three downs. Montgomery projects as one of the best values on a per-dollar basis this week.

Darnell Mooney has officially supplanted Anthony Miller as the WR2 on the Bears in two-receiver sets. Miller still maintains his coveted slot role, but Mooney is starting opposite Allen Robinson on the perimeter. He hasn’t had a signature blow-up game this season, but he has a shot against this weak Carolina defense. For those looking to afford the premium QBs and RBs this week, he’s the key to making it happen.

A familiar face tops the list as this week’s Air Yards ultimate value. We’ve discussed Adam Thielen twice before in this series. He remains the passing game in Minnesota despite the Justin Jefferson’s emergence. Thielen has cleared 100 Air Yards each week this season, finishing with over 25 fantasy points in each of the past two weeks. Facing the Falcons in Week 6, Thielen has a great matchup to exploit and has the opportunity to finish as the WR1 on the week.

With D.J. Chark trending towards being out, Chris Conley will look to take over as the field-stretching target for the Jaguars in Week 6. The last time Chark missed time, Conley saw over 160 Air Yards. However, he failed to realize any of the opportunity, posting only 6.4 (No. 66) fantasy points in Week 3 against the Dolphins. In a potential shootout with the Lions in Week 6, Conley has a chance to be on the lucky side of variance and finally realize some Air Yards.

Jonathan Taylor has 19 Red Zone touches in five games, good for No. 9 among qualified running backs. Taylor has turned those 19 opportunities into three (No. 15) touchdowns. Indianapolis plays a depleted Bengals defense that lost defensive line starters Sam Hubbard and D.J. Reader last week. The Bengals are No. 31 against the run in 2020, and without their top run defender in Reader, expect Taylor to melt this game away on the ground.

In Week 2, rookie Chase Claypool burst onto the scene with an 85-yard touchdown reception. Since then, his Snap Share has doubled from 36.5-percent up to 72.7-percent. In Week 5, with Darius Slay as his main defender, Claypool took the Eagles for a crazy 7-110-3 stat line in the air. With Diontae Johnson hobbled, Ben Roethlisberger will rely on Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has a 73.4-percent (No. 13) Slot Rate and 120.5 (No. 13) Yards After Catch.

Myles Gaskin has come from out of nowhere to lead the Dolphins backfield, but it does not seem that will change any time soon. Gaskin is a legitimate NFL starter and is still being priced in the range of committee backs. Until FanDuel increases his price, he should be a weekly part of winning lineups. In addition, Gaskin draws a great matchup this week against a Jets defense that has been torched all year.

Two things can be true. Ronald Jones will not maintain his 51.9-percent (No. 26 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share with Leonard Fournette returning from injury. Yet, Jones is still a value this week against the Packers, with his cost adjusted to match the lower expectations. James Robinson and Myles Gaskin are better plays, but Jones is a decent pivot for diversity or if their ownership levels are too high.

Will Fuller comes off a “down” game in which he posted 15.8 (No. 23 among qualified wide receivers) fantasy points, but his 34 routes run in Week 5 marked a season-high. He’s also found paydirt in three straight games, seeing a combined 15 targets over the past two. Considering his volatile nature, evidenced by a 8.7 (No. 23) Weekly Volatility score, and the fact that he hasn’t truly boomed yet this season, count me in. Few players offer the kind of massive ceiling he provides.

With his skillset, it’s a matter of time before Darnell Mooney pops off for two TDs and 100-plus yards. At the bare minimum of $3,000 on DraftKings, he’s an ideal upside dart throw with low projected rostership. Carolina’s secondary poses an intimidating matchup, and the Panthers don’t yield a ton of fantasy points. Still, Mooney should fly under their radar and projects to see the most of Troy Pride, the No. 125-ranked player in PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings.

The Bears have a matchup with a Panthers defense that ranks No. 29 in Defensive Rushing DVOA through five weeks. Every RB not named Kenyan Drake has posted top-5 numbers against them. Even the dusty Todd Gurley managed 150 total yards and found the end zone on a long run last week against this unit. Given his usage and matchup, David Montgomery’s $5800-price tag is laughable. He projects as one of, if not the, best values this Sunday, making him the chalk in cash lineups.

Gaskin has been a high-floor asset all season thanks to his excellent receiving role. He ranks No. 6 or better in targets, Target Share, receptions, and receiving yards. He also ranks No. 3 among all RBs with 22 Red Zone Touches. That’s a massive number for someone that has only scored once. Howard was the only one stealing the coveted goal line carries, but those will belong to Gaskin now in the best spot of the season against the Jets.

Justin Jefferson has been targeted down field and has been efficient with those targets. As is true with any rookie, he’ll be inconsistent and post some duds like we saw in Week 5, but he has shown us the ability to put up huge numbers in the right matchups. Week 6 has the makings of one of those weeks. The Falcons have allowed the seventh-most Fantasy Points per Game to opposing wide receivers and this game is expected to shoot out with a 54.5 projected point total.

A.J. Brown returned to Tennessee’s lineup with a strong performance in Tuesday night’s 42-16 win over the Bills. This week’s game against the Texans has a projected total of 54.5 points, among the highest of Week 6, so there should be plenty of opportunity for Brown to see targets and score again. It’s extremely rare to find a team’s alpha WR1 priced under $6,000 on Draftkings but that’s exactly what we have with Brown this week. Fire him up at a shockingly low $5,600.

In a game where they led by multiple scores almost wire-to-wire, Lamar Jackson saw a huge increase in pass attempts. They are trying to get him going through the air. Marquise Brown is set to be the main beneficiary of this passing uptick. Last week, his routes and targets jumped to season highs. He is consistently targeted deep down the field, creating a volatile, splash play machine waiting for that blowup 150-plus yard, two-score game. This is the week.

This week in particular sets up to encourage plenty of passing action from the Jaguars against the Lions in the week’s most likely shootout. For the stack with Gardner Minshew, we’re going with Laviska Shenault. Similar to Marquise Brown, with the opportunity combined with the dynamism, it’s only a matter of time until he has a monster, slate breaking week. If you want to go all in on this game shooting out, throw D.J. Chark into the lineup and run it back with Kenny Golladay or T.J. Hockenson.

Everyone wants to be better at daily fantasy, but most people do not have time to research every player in-depth, figure out which of the hundreds of DFS tools to utilize or iterate over the many Lineup Optimizers flooding the space. PlayerProfiler’s DFS Lineup Genius keeps it simple. In week 2, one of our featured […]