DFS

For all his fantasy scoring fluctuation – his 9.3 Weekly Volatility score ranks No. 15 among qualified wide receivers – Calvin Ridley has posted WR1 numbers in five different weeks this season, including three top-3 finishes. He’s earned a consistently high Target Share, seeing no fewer than nine targets across his past four games. Regardless of Julio Jones’ availability (hamstring), Ridley needs to be fired up.

D.K. Metcalf needs no narrative to smash a slate, and he won’t get one this week. Washington holds opposing receivers to a total of 19.8 Fantasy Points per Game, the third-fewest this season. Metcalf carries the third-highest salary ($8,600) on the main slate, which pushes the masses off him. And when that happens and his projected rostership falls below 10-percent, he deserves to be in GPP lineups.

Priced almost $1000 less than Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray gives daily fantasy gamers the QB1 upside at a discount relative to the rest of the top tier QBs. That savings can be used to pay up for his top target DeAndre Hopkins, who has faced an incredibly difficult slate of corners over the last few weeks in Stephon Gilmore, Jalen Ramsey, and James Bradberry. Darius Slay isn’t practicing this week, which gives Hopkins even more potential to smash.

Since returning to the lineup in Week 12, Mitchell Trubisky has posted two top 10 fantasy QB performances. Yet DraftKings refuses to price him up, even as they face an average Minnesota Vikings defense in a dome. Allen Robinson’s price is rising, but there is still plenty of upside value left, and pairing him with Trubisky at only $5.5K provides sufficient salary relief to not have to compromise at other positions.

J.K. Dobbins has arguably been the most impressive rookie RB this season. He’s averaged fewer than 10 touches per game, but his efficiency has been off the charts. He boasts a 6.2-percent (No. 6 among qualified RBs) Breakaway Run Rate, highlighting his explosive playmaking ability. While he’s clearly capable of ripping off chunk plays, he also sports a 4.8 (No. 4) True Yards Per Carry mark, meaning he’s consistently churning out solid gains without his Breakaway Runs.

Ronald Jones’ status was already in doubt with a broken pinkie, but he now has landed on the COVID list, meaning he’s set to miss Sunday’s matchup with the Falcons. Leonard Fournette was a healthy scratch last week, but the Buccaneers will have no choice but to feature their offseason acquisition on early downs. Fournette had already built a rapport with Tom Brady on passing downs, averaging 4.1 (No. 18) targets per game, so we could be looking at a three-down RB at just $4500 this week.

Given his 6.0 (No. 105 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance mark and history of rushing production, Curtis Samuel should dominate short-area work and get double-digit touches against this shorthanded Denver defense. He’s been among the most efficient fantasy players this season with 2.33 (No. 9) Fantasy Points per Target and a +32.2 percent (No. 9) Target Premium. The stars are aligning for Samuel to have a career day.

Stone-minimum punt plays always help relieve salary in cash. With Denzel Mims out and Jamison Crowder highly questionable, Braxton Berrios presents the best punt option across all positions. The Seahawks have given up a ridiculous 229 receptions and 2,707 yards to receivers this year, easily the most in the NFL. The Jets are massive 13.5-point underdogs, so we can project plenty of negative Game Script.

Calvin Ridley again appears in the Paying Up section, making it three weeks in a row. Last week against a tough Saints defense, Ridley finished as the WR24 on the week with five receptions for 108 yards. He out-gained Julio Jones in both yards and Air Yards, posting 186 Air Yards to Jones’ 109 Air Yards. With Jones ruled out for Week 14’s matchup against the Chargers, Ridley will look to dominate the targets and Air Yards in the Falcons passing attack. However, his ceiling is lowered without Jones on the field.

A.J. Green has been left off the value list for a while now despite scoring high in the model. However, after 14 weeks, Green is finally priced at the stone cold minimum on DraftKings. While he appears to be dust at this point, he is still seeing plenty of snaps and routes in the Bengals offense. For a minimum price, he is a masochistic play if you are looking to pay up elsewhere.

Tyler Lockett is the most volatile fantasy football wide receiver in the league. He carries a Weekly Volatility mark of 14.4, showing extremely fantasy scoring oscillation. A true boom-or-bust archetype, Lockett looks primed for a breakout game against the Jets. And at a salary of $7,200 on DraftKings with low projected rostership, he’s a leverageable GPP asset.

Amari Cooper is being overlooked in a potential blowup spot with low projected rostership. The Andy Dalton revenge game narrative comes into play, with the quarterback facing his former team for the first time. If Dalton elevates his play against the Bengals, the Cowboys receivers benefit. And Cooper, who’s seen an increase in targets in each of his past four games, figures to be the biggest beneficiary and the lowest-rostered Cowboys receiver.

Corey Davis ranks No. 4 among qualified wide receivers with 11.4 Yards Per Target, while averaging 2.88 (No. 2) Yards Per Route Run with a 33.1-percent (No. 19) Air Yards Share. This week’s game has the second-highest over/under of the week, providing plenty of opportunity for another trip to the end zone against a Jaguars team that has allowed the fifth-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers. At just $5,700 we can’t pass up the upside.

Will Fuller’s suspension, coupled with Kenny Stills’ release and Randall Cobb’s absence due to a foot injury, unlocked third-year wide receiver Keke Coutee. He finished as the WR8 in Week 13 with eight receptions for a career-high 141 yards. The depleted Texans wide receiver corps ensures Coutee will continue to be the recipient of a high Target Share over the next few weeks. His knack for explosive plays makes him a great play at $5,000, even in a matchup with the Bears. 

From a budget perspective, it takes effort to fit in both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen at over $7K each, but Kirk Cousins offers salary relief at only $6.2K. Without a doubt, this is a volatile strategy. It requires the perfect game conditions, but in a GPP, you’re shooting for scenarios that lead to 95th-percentile outcomes, which this game presents. Be sure to run it back with a Buccaneer to capture the full-on shootout upside.

At a $5.1K price, outside the top 25 at QB, Jalen Hurts doesn’t need to be flawless to return tournament-winning upside. If he does hit, this is the week to be on him before any price or ownership spikes. Jalen Reagor unquestionably has the most upside in the Philadelphia WR corps. Last week, we got a taste of the explosive rookie’s dynamism and 140.4 (98th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Burst Score with the punt return TD.

The Chiefs are most vulnerable on the ground, so Myles Gaskin will find efficiency on his 20-plus touches this week. Even if the Dolphins do fall behind in the second half, he’s seen 37 (No. 21 among qualified running backs) targets for a 14.4-percent (No. 7) Target Share and has a 54.6-percent (No. 10) Route Participation mark. Gaskin is a bona fide Game Script-independent workhorse and should crush this week.

Jonathan Taylor faces a Raiders defense that ranks No. 31 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and just let Ty Johnson rack up 104 yards and a score on the ground. A $5800 price is still difficult to stomach in cash, but that will keep Taylor’s tournament ownership low. Most DFS gamers will be focused on the Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler tier. Pivoting down to Taylor unlocks the Michael Thomas and Julio Jones tier of high-upside and underpriced WRs.

Kareem Hunt’s opportunity numbers are inflated by the time that Nick Chubb spent on IR, but he has still received double digit carries in every game this year. The matchup against Tennessee’s lackluster defense is intriguing as well. They have given up an average of 1.56 points above expectation at the running back position this year. It is hard to trust a secondary back without stellar receiving volume at $6,300 in cash, but Hunt is a great upside play for tournaments.

David Montgomery ranks top 10 in Opportunity Share with a large sample of games played, yet is priced among secondary and part time backs. He has a true featured role in the Chicago offense. In a plus matchup against the Lions, Montgomery is a near lock in cash with his touch volume. He is still a risk in tournaments as it is hard to envision high boom potential for any player in a Mitchell Trubisky-led offense.