Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 14

by Edward DeLauter, December 12, 2020

The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score. The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each player’s Value Score so as to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.

Again, we will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards Value Plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.

PAYING UP

Calvin Ridley – DK: $7,500

Air Yards Value Score: 64.11

Air Yards: 1,421 (No. 3 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 37.8-percent (No. 9)
Unrealized Air Yards: 670 (No. 5)

Calvin Ridley again appears in the Paying Up section, making it three weeks in a row. Last week against a tough Saints defense, Ridley finished as the WR24 on the week with five receptions for 108 yards. He out-gained Julio Jones in both yards and Air Yards, posting 186 Air Yards to Jones’ 109 Air Yards.

With Jones ruled out for Week 14’s matchup against the Chargers, Ridley will look to dominate the targets and Air Yards in the Falcons passing attack. However, his ceiling is lowered without Jones on the field.

Terry McLaurin – DK: $6,700

Air Yards Value Score: 62.28

Air Yards: 1,102 (No. 10)
Air Yards Share: 42.3-percent (No. 2)
Unrealized Air Yards: 561 (No. 12)

Terry McLaurin face-planted with his worst game all season last week, scoring only 3.4 (No. 87) fantasy points. However, despite Logan Thomas‘ recent Darren Waller impression, McLaurin remains the focal point of the Washington passing game. His 42.3-percent Air Yards Share is behind only Michael Thomas. This week, McLaurin faces a tough matchup against the 49ers with one of the lowest over/unders on the slate. Regardless of how many points will be scored in this game, he will surely be fed plenty of opportunity. There is no better week to run it back with McLaurin in tournament lineups.

Top-10 Value List

No. 10)  Christian Kirk – DK: $4,700

Air Yards Value Score: 42.66

Air Yards: 800 (No. 38)
Air Yards Share: 28.0-percent (No. 36)
Unrealized Air Yards: 429 (No. 25)

Christian Kirk is coming off one of his worst fantasy games all season, catching one pass for two yards against the Rams last week. However, he still saw 70 Air Yards, a number which he has eclipsed in each of the past three weeks. With DeAndre Hopkins projected to line up across James Bradberry, the Cardinals may look to get Kirk more involved. Regardless, even with his current Air Yard usage, a big game is well within his range of outcomes.

No. 9)  Tim Patrick – DK: $4,200

Air Yards Value Score: 45.82

Air Yards: 867 (No. 32)
Air Yards Share: 24.8-percent (No. 50)
Unrealized Air Yards: 413 (No. 29)

Tim Patrick flashed slate-winning upside last week, posting more than 20 fantasy points. However, only amassing 37 Air Yards, this was in large part to the two touchdowns he secured.

Tim Patrick 2020 Efficiency Metrics

Still, Patrick remains a great cash game play because of his sub $4,500 price and his continued involvement in the Broncos passing game. He is also among the league’s most efficient receivers, posting a +19.4 (No. 15) Production Premium.

No. 8)  Tee Higgins – DK: $4,800

Air Yards Value Score: 58.32

Air Yards: 1,046 (No. 14)
Air Yards Share: 29.9-percent (No. 31)
Unrealized Air Yards: 563 (No. 11)

Tee Higgins has posted back-to-back double digit fantasy point games without Joe Burrow throwing him the football. He, along with teammate Tyler Boyd, have the safest floors in all of fantasy football for players priced under $5,000 this week on DraftKings. Both are great cash game plays against the Cowboys. If you want to save $100 and maximize Air Yard upside, roster Higgins instead of Boyd.

No. 7)  Michael Gallup – DK: $3,800

Air Yards Value Score: 58.69

Air Yards: 962 (No. 23)
Air Yards Share: 25.9-percent (No. 45)
Unrealized Air Yards: 498 (No. 19)

Michael Gallup finished as the WR10 in Week 13, seeing 11 targets and 139 Air Yards. He turned this opportunity into seven receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown.

Michael Gallup 2020 Game Logs – Weeks 11-13

Averaging eight targets per game since Andy Dalton‘s return, Gallup’s Target Share is similar to both CeeDee Lamb‘s and Amari Cooper’s in that tiemframe. Priced $1,000 lower than Lamb, Gallup is the best way to save budget and still get a piece of the Cowboys offense.

No. 6)  Mike Williams – DK: $4,700

Air Yards Value Score: 59.48

Air Yards: 1048 (No. 23)
Air Yards Share: 29.8-percent (No. 32)
Unrealized Air Yards: 597 (No. 10)

Mike Williams has disappointed over the past two weeks, failing to crest double digit fantasy points in either game. He faced stiff coverage from Buffalo and New England. Luckily for the highly volatile receiver, he plays against Atlanta in Week 14. Look for Williams to bounce back this week and play him confidently in tournament lineups.

No. 5)  Darnell Mooney – DK: $3,500

Air Yards Value Score: 67.13

Air Yards: 998 (No. 19)
Air Yards Share: 26.3-percent (No. 41)
Unrealized Air Yards: 667 (No. 6)

Darnell Mooney continues to be the Chicago wide receiver not named Allen Robinson to roster in DFS. He has actually outgained Robinson in Air Yards in each of the past two weeks, seeing at least six targets in each game.


See our best Darnell Mooney lineups on PlayerProfiler’s DFS Lineup Genius:


 

Set to face off against a Texans secondary that is among the worst in the league, Mooney is a great tournament stacking option and a cheap correlation play if you are rostering any Texans or Bears players.

No. 4)  Darius Slayton – DK: $4,200

Air Yards Value Score: 67.86

Air Yards: 915 (No. 29)
Air Yards Share: 34.8-percent (No. 15)
Unrealized Air Yards: 438 (No. 24)

Darius Slayton‘s demise as a fantasy producer continued last week when he caught only one pass for 14 yards.

With Daniel Jones expected back under center, Slayton has the chance to rebound. However, he has been extremely volatile, posting either double digit fantasy points or close to none at all since Week 7. For this reason, he is a boom-or-bust tournament play in Week 14.

No. 3)  Jerry Jeudy – DK: $4,700

Air Yards Value Score: 70.99

Air Yards: 1191 (No. 4)
Air Yards Share: 31.3-percent (No. 24)
Unrealized Air Yards: 753 (No. 2)

Jerry Jeudy’s ankle injury appears to be grounding any takeoff the rookie wide receiver was set to have in the second half of the season. After his breakout performance in Week 8, he has scored double digit fantasy points only once. Coming off tough matchups against the Saints and Chiefs, he will look to rebound against a Carolina secondary that was recently torched by the Vikings passing attack without Adam Thielan. If Jeudy is recovered from his ankle injury he could have a huge day.

No. 2)  Marquez Valdes-Scantling – DK: $3,900

Air Yards Value Score: 73.32

Air Yards: 986 (No. 21)
Air Yards Share: 32.4-percent (No. 23)
Unrealized Air Yards: 628 (No. 7)

Marquez Valdez-Scantling runs far, evidenced by a 18.6 (No. 2) Average Target Distance. Sometimes he catches the ball, but with a 47.2-percent (No. 107) Catch Rate, most of the time he doesn’t. For this reason, MVS remains a Hail Mary, tournament-only play.

No. 1)  A.J. Green – DK: $3,000

Air Yards Value Score: 89.29

Air Yards: 1,065 (No. 11)
Air Yards Share: 28.1-percent (No. 35)
Unrealized Air Yards: 774 (No. 1)

A.J. Green has been left off the value list for a while now despite scoring high in the model. However, after 14 weeks, Green is finally priced at the stone cold minimum on DraftKings. His price is well deserved after back-to-back zero fantasy point outings. However, he continues to see coverage from the best corners opposing teams have to offer.

While Green appears to be dust at this point, he is still seeing plenty of snaps and routes in the Bengals offense. For a minimum price, he is a masochistic play if you are looking to pay up elsewhere.

Good luck to everyone in Week 14. May all your Air Yards be realized.