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Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo, and adjusting QBR based on the quarterback’s supporting cast

by Peter Howard, March 28, 2018

Deshaun Watson’s touchdown-dependent four-game stretch in 2017 did not help him with a quarterback rating that judges how well he threw the ball. Watson moves from No. 1 in Total QBR and No. 7 in True Passer rating, to No. 18 in the performance-focused adjusted QBR.

Adjusted QBR provides a clearer picture of how PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats, metrics, and analytics describe QB performances in 2017. While the predictive nature of this metrics is uncertain, even in a limit sample size, adjusted performance gives us a clear indication of how well a quarterback played, regardless of variance riddled stats like touchdowns and interceptions.

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These 3 rookie running backs deserve more attention in mock drafts

by Josh Oliver, March 26, 2018

Chase Edmonds’ best season, and best the indicator of his NFL upside, was his sophomore year, when he compiled 1,648 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. The most important numbers from this season, though, were his 31 receptions for 383 yards and five touchdowns.

Jarvion Franklin is bigger than Carlos Hyde, showed better receiving ability and was more dominant in college. Most impressively, Franklin’s 11.24 Agility Score at 239-pounds illuminated exceptional size-adjusted lateral quickness.

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Why dynasty leaguers must stash Austin Carr before he breaks out

by Neil Dutton, March 24, 2018

Austin Carr posted a 46.8 percent College Dominator Rating, good for a place in the 92nd percentile, and after posting a 10.77 Agility Score (93rd percentile) this makes him an ideal option for the Saints in the slot.

The Saints need a quality slot wide receiver, and Austin Carr has the skills to be a target hog in New Orleans. With exceptional lateral quickness, a solid history of college production, and Drew Brees throwing him the ball, why can’t Carr be a fantasy WR2?

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Mason Rudolph is the most underrated quarterback in the NFL Draft

by Marc Mathyk, March 23, 2018

It is mind-boggling how a quarterback as inefficient and inaccurate as Josh Allen can supersede Mason Rudolph and be considered a first round pick in this year’s rookie draft.  The production numbers don’t lie. Apart from Mayfield, Rudolph was by far and away the most dominant throwing quarterback in college, ahead of the other first-round graded quarterback prospects.

Many critics have accused Mason Rudolph as a system quarterback, meaning he was great in the system at Oklahoma State but would not be effective if he were to find himself out of that system.  This is a ludicrous accusation because when you also look at his air yards per attempt.

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These incumbent wide receivers won free agency without changing teams

by Matthew Gajewski, March 22, 2018

With Sammy Watkins signing in Kansas City, Josh Reynolds looks to be the favorite to take over the Rams’ third receiver spot. Reynolds played this role when Robert Woods missed time last season with a shoulder injury. During this period Reynolds averaged 72.1-percent of the Rams’ snaps.

When the Dolphins traded Jarvis Landry to the Cleveland Browns, Kenny Stills (not DeVante Parker) became the biggest winner on the team. Over the past two seasons, Stills has thwarted Parker across a variety of advanced metrics with a+14.0 Production Premium (No. 19), +9.1 Target Premium (No. 33) and an 8.1 Yards Per Target (No. 38).

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What You Need To Know About the Wonderlic Test and the NFL Draft

by Adam Henige, March 20, 2018

Like all standardized testing the Wonderlic can be a controversial topic, but there is some statistical relevance for the test, and given today’s data driven climate in sports, you must believe the NFL keeps the test around for more than entertainment.

The Wonderlic continues to be used by the NFL and other organizations. As offensive and defensive schemes become more complex, it would stand to reason that quick thinking would be a useful trait for players.

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Someone must tell Ryan Nall to convert to tight end ASAP

by Marc Mathyk, March 17, 2018

Ryan Nall’s is best comparable player on PlayerProfiler.com is Stephen Anderson who currently plays for the Houston Texans.  Both are around the same size with incredible agility.  Nall is faster, though slightly less explosive.

Another player comparison is Trey Burton, who has been all over the news lately as a free agent.  Burton is also a tight end convert, switching from college quarterback to NFL tight end. This is a more common transformation. Although Burton compares to Nall with both having an excellent Agility Scores, Nall is still the better athlete because he is faster, has more burst, and has a much better Catch Radius. 

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Is Equanimeous St. Brown this year’s JuJu Smith-Schuster?

by Marc Mathyk, March 15, 2018

Nothing about Equanimeous St. Brown is conventional. The 6-5 enigma is about to land in the NFL, and his underwhelming final college season may pave the way for St. Brown to be this year’s JuJu Smith-Schuster based on his productivity as a sophomore at Notre Dame.

Isolating a wide receiver’s most productive college season, the JuJu Smith-Schuster Corollary, best illuminates his NFL upside.  St. Brown’s Dominator Rating during his peak sophomore season with DeShone Kizer reached the 58th-percentile, which puts him ahead of Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin.

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Why Richie James looks like a late round dynasty steal

by Matthew Gajewski, March 14, 2018

James turned in 1,346 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns on 107 catches as a sophomore at Middle Tennessee State. While only his second year at Middle Tennessee. James also recorded a 20.0 Breakout Age (61st-percentile) demonstrating a polished slot receiver skill set early in his college career.

Seemingly with a floor of Trent Taylor, Richie James warrants late round consideration in all dynasty leagues. Despite the production red flags, James also recorded a receiving yardage share of 38.3-percent and a touchdown share of 54.5-percent in 2016.

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Welp… Derrick Henry Just Became Overrated

by Kyle Dvorchak, March 12, 2018

I’ve always thought Derrick Henry was overvalued. Now, Demarco Murray is gone, and just as the door of opportunity swung open, the specter overvaluation emerged. After reviewing the advanced stats and metrics, Henry is clearly overrated.

Murray was an obstacle for Henry to plow through like any corner or safety but this draft class could provide real competition for Henry even in the mid rounds. Tennessee has the chance to bring in real competition for him from a running back class will change the landscape of dynasty rankings.

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