Underdog Pick ‘Ems Super Bowl LVIII | 2024 NFL Playoffs

by Ahaan Rungta · Betting & Props

This is Underdog Pick ‘Ems Super Bowl Edition! This is your spot for finding the best-value weekly spots to pick whether players will go higher or lower than their projection. Friday marked the final episode of the season for the Pick ‘Em Power Hour with Ahaan S. Rungta (@AhaanRungta) and Trevor Tipton (@FFCULater).

Over the course of the season, the team has provided over a dozen weekend winners and several primetime collaboration winners. Most recently, we are coming off a two-pick winner in the Chiefs-Ravens Conference Championship. We look to end the season with some more winners in the battle for the Lombardi Trophy. If you would like to tail our plays or create your own, join Underdog today with promo code UNDERWORLD for a 100% deposit match up to $100 USD upon entry. Here are our picks for Super Bowl LVIII.

Ahaan’s Super Bowl LVIII Entry

Patrick Mahomes (KC) HIGHER than 25.5 rushing yards

The best quarterback in the NFL is back in the Super Bowl. When Patrick Mahomes is facing elimination, he steps it up in every way possible. This includes scrambling when need be. Mahomes has cleared this line in 10 of his 19 games this season. However, in four of six games, when facing a team in the top-ten in pressure rate this season, he has cleared this line. This season, San Francisco ranks No. 9 in that category. The idea is simple. When Mahomes sees his mediocre pass-catching room fail to get open, he will find a way to use his athleticism to pick up yardage.

He also always turns it up on the ground during the playoffs. Mahomes has cleared this line in seven of his last 12 postseason games where Kansas City did not win in a blowout. This is a buy-low after two straight unders where Kansas City controlled the ground game through Isiah Pacheco. That will be harder to do against the 49ers’ elite run defense.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF) HIGHER than 4.5 receptions

Although the Chiefs secondary has had a playoff run to remember, and the fantastic cornerback L’Jarius Sneed will likely shadow Brandon Aiyuk, this pick is a matter of volume. That is much safer than trusting the production. The idea is that Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo should approach this game from the standpoint of trying to stack the box against Christian McCaffrey and turn Brock Purdy into a thrower. This is especially due to Kansas City’s struggles this season at stopping the run.

Aiyuk has at least five receptions in nine of his 15 games this season where he was part of at least 70-percent of the snaps. Although he has stayed under in back-to-back playoff games, it was due to some inaccuracy from Brock Purdy as Aiyuk drew six and eight targets in each game, respectively.

Recommended: 0.50u on the Two-Pick Entry

Seeing one-on-one coverage against the Chiefs scheme should encourage the 49ers to force-feed one of the best route-runners in the NFL. Clear-cut top-option wide receivers have had their way in the volume department against the Chiefs, with Davante Adams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers, Christian Kirk, Christian Watson, and Tyreek Hill (twice) all clearing this projection against them. The superstar wideout for the 49ers should do the same even if it means on mediocre efficiency.

Trevor’s Super Bowl LVIII Entry

Travis Kelce (KC) HIGHER than 9.5 targets

As a die-hard 49ers fan, this will be painful to write up. However, I like winning, and this is an excellent spot for Kelce. The first and most obvious reason is the undeniable connection between quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. The duo has been a force to be reckoned with, and their chemistry on the field is indisputable. They have consistently connected in the playoffs, with Kelce having 10 targets against Miami and 11 last week against the Ravens. With the Super Bowl on the line, Mahomes will look to his favorite target early and often.

Another factor in Kelce’s favor is the San Francisco 49ers’ defense. While the 49ers have a solid defensive unit, they have shown vulnerability to tight ends throughout the season. During the playoffs, they allowed nine receptions and 97 yards to Sam LaPorta. Additionally, Kraft and Musgrave also combined for a solid day against Green Bay. This bodes well for Kelce. Kelce is a master at finding open space and exploiting mismatches, and we know Andy Reid will have some rabbits to pull out of his hat for this matchup. 

Elijah Mitchell (SF) HIGHER than 3.5 rushing yards

It gets my attention when Underdog brings a player on for the Super Bowl at a deficient line. Mitchell has not had any props available in the last two playoff games. However now, in this matchup, we get the opportunity to go higher than 4.5 yards. As long as Mitchell plays in this game, this is one of the safest Pick ‘Ems on the board. In just 11 games, he has amassed 281 rushing yards on 75 carries, averaging 3.7 yards per carry. The magic number is 3.7 yards per carry. We should see Mitchell give CMC some air in this game and go higher reasonably quickly. 

Recommended: 0.50u on the Two-Pick Entry

While the Kansas City Chiefs have a formidable defense overall, they have shown some vulnerability against the run. In the 2023 regular season, the Chiefs allowed an average of 4.5 rushing yards per carry, which ranks in the league’s bottom half. They are also without Charles Omenihu, who was injured against the Ravens. That is a massive blow for their defensive line. This weakness in the Chiefs’ run defense could be exploited by Mitchell and the 49ers’ running game, allowing Mitchell to surpass the 3.5-yard mark in the Super Bowl.

Host Collab: Longshot Super Bowl LVIII Entry

To close the season, the Pick ‘Em Power Hour hosts collaborated on a five-pick entry for one last shot at glory. If you want to hear the pitches for why we both like these plays, check out the full podcast episode.


Recommended: 0.25u on the five-pick entry (standard or insured)

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