Welcome to Underdog Best Player Pick ‘Ems NFL Week 6! This is spot for finding the best-value weekly spots to pick whether players will go higher or lower than their projection. As usual, if you want weekly audio content for pick ‘ems, including getting in early on some lines that will move early in the week, check out the Pick ‘Em Power Hour every Wednesday and Friday with us hosts, Ahaan S. Rungta (@AhaanRungta) and Trevor Tipton (@FFCULater).
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Ahaan’s Week 6 Picks
Zay Flowers (BAL) HIGHER than 56.5 Receiving Yards
For our first pick of the weekend, we are headed to the London game on a projection that is simply disrespectful to one of the best rookies in the NFL. This Ravens wide receiver has at least 10 targets in three of his five games. Additionally, he is one of 22 wide receivers in the NFL with a 100% route participation in each of the first five weeks.
Now, he gets what should be a breeze of a matchup against the pass-funnel Tennessee Titans defense. Here are performances from top wideouts against the Titans in each of the first five weeks this season:
- Chris Olave 8 receptions, 112 yards; Rashid Shaheed 5 reception, 89 yards; Michael Thomas 5 receptions, 61 yards
- Keenan Allen 8 receptions, 111 yards; Mike Williams 8 receptions, 83 yards
- Amari Cooper 7 receptions, 116 yards
- Ja’Marr Chase 7 receptions, 73 yards
- Josh Downs 6 receptions, 97 yards; Michael Pittman Jr. 5 receptions, 52 yards
Flowers ranked among leaders of the 2023 Breakout Finder model. Therefore, I have no issues targeting him until the projections adjust. This pick is juiced up to -135 on sportsbooks, so we are getting great value on Underdog by taking it as a pick ‘em.
Jake Elliott (PHI) HIGHER than 1.5 Field Goals Made
One of the most underrated markets in pick ’ems this season has been field goals against the New York Jets. The higher on this pick has been a straight cheat code in this matchup. Tyler Bass, Brandon Aubrey, Chad Ryland, Harrison Butker, and Wil Lutz went 3/3, 5/5, 2/4, 3/3, and 2/2, respectively. The Jets haven’t been perfect defensively. However, they have held their own in the red zone.
The Eagles have already elected to “go for it” on fourth down eight times this season (only five teams have more attempts). Still, Elliott has attempted at least three field goals in every game. The veteran is trusted by the Eagles coaching staff even in iffy conditions. The streak is likely to continue. This pick is juiced up to -135 on sportsbooks. Thus, making it another great value spot as a pick ‘em.
Trevor’s Week 6 Picks
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) HIGHER than 47.5 Receiving Yards
Brandon Aiyuk is one of the most promising young wide receivers in the NFL, and he is poised for a big game this week against the Cleveland Browns in his matchup against Martin Emerson Jr. Aiyuk is coming off a game in which he had 58 receiving yards. Additionally, he has been a consistent producer all season. He has at least 50 receiving yards in three of his four games and over 100 in two of those games.
Aiyuk is also a big-play threat. He has a 15.5 ADOT and 418 air yards with a 77.8-percent catch rate. Additionally, Aiyuk is running 18.0 yards per route run while averaging 94.5 yards a game. Therefore, the probability of this going higher is very much on our side.
The Browns have a good pass defense but have also been susceptible to big plays. They have allowed at least one catch of at least 40 yards in three of their five games this season. Aiyuk is also playing in a favorable offense that will have to throw. This Cleveland team has allowed three catches of at least 20 yards and two catches of at least 40 yards this season. Aiyuk’s is leading the 49ers with 21 receptions and 39.3-percent of the 49ers receiving yards while having 18 targets of 10 yards or more this season. This will give him plenty of opportunities to go higher than his 47.5 receiving yards.
Raheem Mostert (MIA) HIGHER than 15.5 Receiving Yards
Raheem Mostert is one of the most explosive and fastest running backs in the NFL, and the Miami Dolphins have used him to significant effect in the passing game this season. Through five games, Mostert has 128 receiving yards on 15 catches, including a touchdown. There are a few reasons why Mostert will likely go over 15.5 receiving yards against the Carolina Panthers in Week 6.
First, the Panthers have a poor pass defense. The Panthers have such a lousy run defense teams have yet to throw as much against them. However, they have also struggled to cover running backs out of the backfield, allowing an average of 46.2 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (No. 29 in the NFL).
Second, the Dolphins have an excellent passing game. The Dolphins rank No. 1 in the NFL in passing yards per game (336.2). They also have one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle—defenses are forced to respect the pass, creating opportunities for Mostert in the passing game.
Finally, the Dolphins are now without rookie breakout Devon Achane, and Jeff Wilson is still not set to return this week. Mostert is now the true bell-cow this week in a matchup in which the Dolphins are projected to score over 30 points. We love targeting players with breakaway ability on any play, and Mostert fits this profile. PlayerProfiler projects Mostert for 26.5 receiving yards this week against the Panthers.